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Sharp Bettors Love the Bills in Week 11; See the 5 Teams Receiving Most Sharp Money

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Apr 14, 2020 · 11:28 AM PDT

Oddsmakers are reporting that 20% of sharp money in Week 11 of the NFL season is being wagered on the Buffalo Bills. Photo by Erik Drost (Wiki Commons) [CCLicense].
  • Sportsbooks are reporting that 20% of sharp money in Week 11 of the NFL season is being wagered on the Buffalo Bills
  • The Oakland Raiders (14%), Los Angeles Chargers (8.3 percent), Arizona Cardinals (8.2%) and Cincinnati Bengals (6.4%) are also seeing sharp action
  • We preview the sharp money match-ups and offer our betting advice below

The Buffalo Bills haven’t been all that sharp lately but that isn’t deterring the sharp bettors from backing the Bills in the Week 11  NFL odds.

The 6-3 Bills, who go to Miami this Sunday at 6.5-point road favorites over the 2-7 Dolphins, are drawing a whopping 20% of all sharp action this week. But going with Buffalo against the spread is also going against the grain.

The Bills are 1-2-1 ATS in their last four games.

NFL Week 11 Smart Money Bets

Bet Percentage of Smart Money
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) over Miami Dolphins 20.0%
Oakland Raiders (-12) over Cincinnati Bengals 14.0%
Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5) over Kansas City Chiefs 8.3%
Arizona Cardinals (+10) over San Francisco 49ers 8.2%
Cincinnati Bengals (+12) over Oakland Raiders 6.4%

Odds taken on Nov. 16, 2019.

Since opening the season 3-0 straight up, Buffalo is 3-3.

Will the Bills Pay?

Last week, the sharps were also all over the Bills. Buffalo was drawing 12.6% of sharp money as a three-point road underdog facing the Browns in Cleveland. But it didn’t prove to be of sharp mind. The Bills didn’t pay. A 19-16 Buffalo loss meant the game was a push.

On the other hand, the Dolphins are crushing it when it comes to ATS wagering. Miami has covered the spread in five straight games.

As much as the sharps have loved the Bills in each of the past two weeks, they’ve had a strong hate on for the Dolphins. Last week, the smart money backed the Indianapolis Colts more than any other team (14.3%). That was even though the Colts were facing Miami minus starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett.

Miami didn’t just cover against Indy, the Dolphins beat the Colts outright 16-12 to win their second game in a row.

Buffalo only beat the Dolphins by 10 in a 31-21 home-field victory during Week 7. The Bills were 17-point favorites in that game.

Buffalo kicker Stephen Hauschka has hit 61.5% of his field goals this season. The league average is 80.7%.

Miami is 5-3 SU in its last eight home games against the Bills. Buffalo has won just four of its last 16 road games when facing teams with losing records. The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against AFC East opponents.

Pick: Miami Dolphins (-6.5).

Sharp vs Sharp

More than 20% of all sharp money is wagered on Sunday’s Oakland Raiders-Cincinnati Bengals tilt. The sharps like Oakland to the tune of 14% but there’s also a 6.4% constituency among the smart money that is backing the Bengals.

The 0-9 Bengals are the last NFL team with a zero in either the win or the loss column. Cincinnati has gone 0-3 ATS in its last three games, losing these games by an average of 20 points per game.

The Raiders have covered in six of their last seven home games. The Bengals are last in the NFL at stopping the run (173 yards per game). Oakland rookie running back Josh Jacobs is fifth in the NFL in rushing (811 yards). Jacobs has scored three touchdowns in his last two games and has gone over 100 yards gained on the ground in three of his last five games.

However, Cincy has won three in a row straight up against the Raiders. The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Raiders. Oakland’s last two wins against Cincinnati were both decided by a field goal.

The Raiders will win this game, but 12 points is too much to ask them to cover.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (+12).

In Need of a Recharge

If there are sharps out there still willing to try and figure out the Los Angeles Chargers, more power to them. At this stage of the season, you’d think when it came to the Bolts, the smart money would bolt in the other direction.

Two weeks ago, the Chargers thrashed the Green Bay Packers 26-11 as four-point home underdogs to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. They followed up by taking a 26-24 loss at Oakland as the 1.5-point road chalk.

Melvin Gordon has looked like himself the past two weeks, rushing for 188 yards and 2 TDs. The Chiefs are a hot mess of late as well. If the Chargers can move the ball on the ground and keep Patrick Mahomes on the bench, they’re a good bet here.

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5).

Niners on the Rebound

For the first time this season, San Francisco is coming off a loss. The Cardinals play the Niners tough – 9-1 SU in their last 10 meetings and 6-3 ATS in their last nine.

Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last six games and is getting 10 points.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+10).

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