Brady Takes Commanding Lead in NFL MVP Odds After Burying Allen’s Comeback Bid

• Tom Brady and Josh Allen went head-to-head in Week 14, with the Buccaneers scoring a walk-off win
• Brady’s heroics made him a heavy favorite in the NFL MVP odds at -150
• See how the landscape changed after Week 14 of the NFL season

For years the Buffalo Bills had to deal with Tom Brady in their division. And for years he got the better of them.

Then something great happened in 2020. He left. No more Brady, no more problems. He’s gone and the Patriots are weaker, right?

Well not so fast. Not only did the Bills drop a pivotal head-to-head with the Pats on Monday night, but their worst nightmare came back to haunt them again. Try as they might to climb out of a 21-point hole, Brady sank the Bills once again, this time in overtime. To add insult to injury, his 700th career touchdown pass was the walk-off dagger, and he broke the NFL record for completions.

Oh, and he may have sent Josh Allen’s NFL MVP odds down with the ship.

2021 NFL MVP Odds

Odds as of December 13th from FanDuel

Week 14 was business as usual for Tom Brady. Another clean performance, and another week just chugging along at the top of the NFL MVP odds.

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The loss saw Allen plummet even further down the board after spending a good portion of the season in the top five. Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott both turned in wins on Sunday, but Mahomes’ rebound has been especially encouraging.

John Harbaugh said QB Lamar Jackson has a sprained ankle. Ravens play the Packers next Sunday.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 12, 2021

Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray go head-to-head on Monday night. It’ll be interesting to see what a win does for either one. The buzz surrounding Stafford has cooled considerably, while Murray’s candidacy is a touchy subject on social media because of his ankle injury.

Brady Extends Dominance Over Bills

The Bills have never posed much of a threat to Tom Brady.

Over his career with the New England Patriots, Brady was 32-3 against the Bills. He had thrown for 8,669 yards and 70 touchdowns against Buffalo. And TB12 was less than hospitable to his old foes in his new home.

Tom Brady vs Josh Allen: Week 14

The overall results aren’t terrible for Allen. After three games of throwing for 260 yards or less, Allen was finally back up over 300. He also mixed in his 10th game with two or more passing touchdowns, while adding a season-high for rushing yards and his fourth TD.

#700 for 2021 #NFL MVP Tom Brady.

Just hand him the damn trophy already. #GoBucs pic.twitter.com/kMI82GcI2Y

— CHRIS TORELLO (@TorelloSports) December 13, 2021

But the turnovers haven’t gone away. Allen has thrown eight interceptions over his last six games. He’s also lost three of his last four, and five of his last eight.

Losing to Brady is a blow to his NFL MVP odds he’s unlikely to recover from.

Herbert, Mahomes Continue NFL MVP Odds Push

It hasn’t been smooth sailing for either the Chargers or the Chiefs this season. But after solid Week 14 performances, both their QBs have pushed their way back into the MVP picture.

Notable Week 14 QB Performances

After a slow start that nearly saw him fall out of the picture entirely, Mahomes is once again in contention. His season has been very uneven, but a divisional win in Week 14 where his running game did a lot of the heavy lifting helped big time. Especially due to the fact he’s also struggled with interceptions in 2021.

JUSTIN HERBERT THROW OF THE YEAR
pic.twitter.com/D8yrfssmKY

— PFF (@PFF) December 12, 2021

Herbert logged his fourth-straight game with multiple TDs, and he’s thrown three TDs in three of those games. He needed an interception-free afternoon as well, having thrown five in his last four games. Herbert and Mahomes face off in Week 15 however, so only one has a favorable future in the NFL MVP odds.

While Prescott has hung around, his MVP bid is losing momentum as well. The Cowboys won, but Prescott has finished under 240 yards in three of his last four games.

This play is insane. Patrick Mahomes is moving 5.3 MPH at the time of throw here, per @NextGenStats.

Which wouldn't be that crazy if he weren't moving 5.3 MPH *to the left* as he threw to the *right*. pic.twitter.com/sLVnB7cpeC

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 12, 2021

Sure they were down 3-0 after one quarter, but Aaron Rodgers really turned it on after that in leading the Packers to victory. The Bears’ majority owner has thrown multiple TDs in all but two games this season and finishes 2021 with the Ravens, Browns, Vikings and Lions.

Brady, Rodgers Remain NFL MVP Odds Best Bets

When looking for a dark horse in the race, whoever you feel comes out on top between the Chargers and Chiefs next week may be your guy. Regardless of which QB that is, this may be the best price you see them at before the stretch run.

But both Brady and Rodgers are cruising. The Packers have a more favorable schedule, while Brady has survived dips in his performance already this season.

Either QB is a good bet right now, but the edge lies with Brady.