Browns Listed as 10.5-Point Favorites vs Dolphins in Week 12 With Garrett Suspended Indefinitely

• The Miami Dolphins (2-8) square off with the Cleveland Browns (4-6) in Week 12
• The Browns have won back-to-back games and opened as a 10.5-point favorite
• Cleveland will be without its top three defensive lineman Myles Garrett (suspension), Larry Ogunjobi (suspension) and Olivier Vernon (knee)

The Cleveland Browns were on the verge of turning their season around. They were moments away from their second straight victory, and Browns fans everywhere were talking themselves into a late season playoff push. Then, Myles Garrett lost his mind.

The Browns best defensive player committed one of the most egregious acts ever on a football field, ending his season and likely Cleveland’s in the process.

Now, the shorthanded Browns must put that ugly mess behind them and shift their attention to a Week 12 date with the Dolphins.

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns Odds

*Odds taken Nov. 17

Cleveland opened as a 10.5-point favorite, which is extremely rare. Since 1999, the Browns have been a double digit favorite on just two occasions (2018, 2007) the fewest of any team in the league. They’ve been been putrid ATS this season as noted in the NFL Week 12 odds, while the Dolphins have been cover machines as of late, beating the number in four straight games prior to their loss versus the Bills.

Overshadowing a Dominant Performance

In addition to losing Garrett indefinitely, the Browns will also be without Larry Ogunjobi for their next game thanks to his role in Thursday’s melee. Olivier Vernon is already sidelined with a knee injury, which means Cleveland’s top three defensive linemen won’t play versus Miami.

.@TheSchoGoesOn53 with his SECOND interception of the night!#PITvsCLE pic.twitter.com/Nngj2fIkLz

— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 15, 2019

On offense, Baker Mayfield threw two touchdowns and has gone three straight games without an interception. Nick Chubb was his usual productive self on the ground, while Kareem Hunt chipped in six catches and looked as explosive as ever. Both players should continue to be productive versus a Dolphins team that struggles mightily against running backs. Miami gave up 168 rushing yards to the Bills on Sunday en route to a blowout defeat at home.

Crashing Back Down to Earth

The Dolphins looked much more like the team that started 0-7 in Week 11, as opposed to the one who’d won two straight. They gave up 424 yards of total offense and a whopping 6.3 yards per play.  Ryan Fitzpatrick was sacked seven times and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the second straight game.

Who needs edge rushers when your defensive tackles can do that? Corey Liuget records #Bills second sack of the game pic.twitter.com/hCQUouRrjQ

— Nathaniel Mendelson (@NateMendelson) November 17, 2019

They were limited to just 23 rushing yards on 13 attempts, and a 28.4% success rate on third down. They average the second fewest total yards in the league and rank dead last in yards on the ground. If the Browns were healthy they’d wreck this Miami attack, however with the amount of missing pieces on Cleveland’s D, don’t be surprised if the Dolphins can move the ball.

Where Will the Line Move

It’s hard to imagine this line moving further in the Browns’ favor given how shorthanded they’ll be on defense. Despite the Dolphins’ 2-8 record, they’ve been extremely competitive in four of their past five games, and have covered each of the last three times they’ve been catching 10+ points.

If the line does move, it will likely be in Miami’s favor, and it will likely be the result of sharp action. The public isn’t rushing to bet either one of these teams, especially Cleveland since they have virtually no history of success as a double-digit favorite.