Chiefs and Bills Lead AFC Championship Odds Entering Wild Card Weekend
- The #1-seeded Kansas City Chiefs (+170) and #2-seeded Buffalo Bills (+200) are the top two betting choices to win the AFC Championship
- In the past 15 AFC title games, 13 were won by either the top (nine) or second (four) seed
- Both of the other two AFC Championships in that span went to the #4 seed, including last year’s win by the Cincinnati Bengals
In the past 15 AFC Championship Games, every seed except #7 has played in the title game for the right to represent the Conference in the Super Bowl. However, don’t go letting those numbers fool you into thinking that seeding doesn’t matter.
Nine of the past 15 AFC Championships were won by the top-seeded team. That’s giving the #1 seed a 60% probability of victory. The #2 seed was a winner on four occasions or 27% of the time. Five games in this span of time featured a 1 vs 2 showdown.
The other two titles were claimed by the fourth-seeded team. Last season, the Cincinnati Bengals were the AFC representative in the Super Bowl as the #4 seed.
This year, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs who are the top seed. They are also the chalk in the AFC Championship odds of +170. The second-seeded Buffalo Bills are the +200 second betting choice.
AFC Championship Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +170 |
| Buffalo Bills | +200 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +450 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +1000 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1800 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +3000 |
| Miami Dolphins | +3000 |
Odds as of January 9th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to make your AFC Championship bets
The defending AFC champion Bengals are the +450 third betting choice. In franchise history, the Bengals have never won playoff games in successive seasons. And a #3 seed hasn’t won the AFC title since 2006.
Chiefs Have Championship Pedigree
Kansas City has played in the past three AFC Championship Games, winning two of them. The +340 betting choice in the Super Bowl odds, the Chiefs will be seeking to emulate the Raiders (1973-77), Buffalo Bills (1990-93) and New England Patriots (2011-18) as AFC teams to play in at least four title games in a row.
Certainly, there’s plenty to like about Kansas City. The 14-3 Chiefs were earning the top seed in the AFC while playing what graded out to be the NFL’s toughest schedule.
Final goal in mind ⏰ pic.twitter.com/OHuHs1PrNS
— Patrick Mahomes II (@PatrickMahomes) January 9, 2023
The -675 odds-on favorite in the NFL MVP odds, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes led the NFL in passing yardage (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41). While topping the league in passing yards per game (308.8) Mahomes was the only QB to average at least 280 yards per game. He finished #1 in passing TD% (6.3) and QBR (77.6) and #2 in passer rating (105.2).
Kansas City is 10-1 straight up over the last 11 games. But the only loss suffered by the Chiefs was on the road to the #3-seeded Bengals. KC’s last home defeat came on October 16. But it was to the #2-seeded Bills.
Bills Have Underperformed Expectations
Buffalo began the season as the chalk to win the Super Bowl. the pundits were certain that this would finally be the year that the Bills would get paid their due.
Yet something seemed to be lacking from 13-3 Buffalo’s performance all season long. Sure, the Bills were winning, but they weren’t dominant as in past years. While the Bills faded from the Super Bowl favorite’s role, QB Josh Allen also fell off as the MVP choice of the oddsmakers.
If the Bills were in need of something to galvanize them, the near-death experience of DB Damar Hamlin, who collapsed and went into cardiac arrest during the Week 17 MNF game at Cincinnati, has sadly provided that. Hamlin appears to be on the road to recovery, and the Bills are also on the rebound. Sunday’s 35-23 win over New England was as solid as the Bills have performed all season.
And since the Bengals-Bills game was canceled, the NFL has ruled that a Buffalo-Kansas City AFC Championship Game would be played at a neutral site. That’s much better for the Bills than a road trip to Arrowhead Stadium.
History Suggesting Jaguars Offer Value in AFC Odds
Just as the Bengals seemingly came out of nowhere to win the AFC title last year, are the Jacksonville Jaguars positioned to do likewise? The AFC South champions are the #4 seed. As noted above, over the past 15 years, when 1 or 2 don’t win, 4 does.
Mahomes led the Chiefs to the AFC Championship Game in his first NFL playoff appearance, just as Joe Burrow did last season for Cincinnati. Both were playing their sophomore NFL seasons.
What Doug Pederson did in Year 1 with the @Jaguars is the epitome of COACHING MATTERS. From 3-14 last year to 9-8 and AFC South Champs this year. Took Trevor Lawrence from a disappointing rookie year to playing like a Top 10 Quarterback. This team has a BRIGHT FUTURE.
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) January 8, 2023
Jacksonville’s sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence is making his first NFL playoff appearance. Over his last nine games, he’s thrown for 15 TDs against just two interceptions. The Jaguars are 7-2.
AFC Championship Prediction
Cincinnati won’t be sneaking up on anybody this season and it just feels like Buffalo still doesn’t have all the pieces in place.
Kansas City, on the other hand, checks off all the boxes. The Chiefs have played with a chip on their shoulder all season long.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (+170)
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
