Chubb the Heavy Favorite for 2018 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year
- NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year betting is now available
- Find out the odds for each of the top contenders for NFL DROY
- Learn the trends behind why the award is rather predictable
When it comes to betting the major NFL player awards, none are more predictable than Defensive Rookie of the Year. However, it’s probably the least commonly available wager of the bunch.
Betting is open now, so make sure to take advantage of it while you still can!
2018 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Pos | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Chubb | EDGE | DEN | +140 |
| Roquan Smith | ILB | CHI | +400 |
| Denzel Ward | CB | CLE | +650 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | MIA | +650 |
| Derwin James | S | LAC | +800 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | ILB | BUF | +800 |
| Marcus Davenport | DE | NO | +1000 |
| Josh Jackson | CB | GB | +1100 |
| Harold Landry | EDGE | TEN | +1300 |
| Jaire Alexander | CB | GB | +1300 |
| Leighton Vander Esch | ILB | DAL | +1600 |
| Rashaan Evans | ILB | TEN | +1800 |
| Taven Bryan | DT | JAX | +2000 |
| Vita Vea | DT | TB | +2000 |
| Da’Ron Payne | DT | WAS | +2800 |
| Darius Leonard | ILB | IND | +2800 |
| Mike Hughes | CB | MIN | +4000 |
Before you go and place a wager on any of these players, make sure it’s a smart one.
Why is Defensive Rookie of the Year So Predictable?
After looking back at the previous DROY winners, there were some big trends that stood out:
NFL DROY Trends
- Only five of the last 29 winners were the first defensive player selected in their class
- 24 of the last 29 winners were among the first eight defensive players off the board
- 26 of the last 29 were top 20 picks
- 23 of the last 29 were top 16 picks
- Only 14 of the last 29 were top ten picks
- 18 of the last 29 were the first player selected at their position
- 24 of the last 29 were one of the first two players selected at their position
- Only 8 of 51 winners have been cornerbacks; but two of the last three DROY winners have been CBs
- Only 2 of the 51 winners have been safeties; no safety has won since 1990
- Only 7 of the 51 winners have been defensive tackles; only two DTs have won since 1995
- Ten of the 51 winners have been defensive ends
- 24 of the 51 winners have been linebackers (inside or out); but no LB has won since 2012
Using these trends, here are five rules to follow when betting on the 2018 NFL DROY.
Deductions from the Trends
- Avoid the first defensive player selected
- Make sure they were one of the first eight defensive players selected
- Stick to players selected inside the top 20 overall
- Make sure they were one of the first two players selected at their position
- Linebackers and EDGE players possess an advantage, although corners are winning lately
After applying these five rules to the 2018 NFL Draft class, we are left with just four viable candidates.
Best Bets for 2018 NFL DROY
| Player | Draft Pos. | Defensive Draft # | Positional Draft # | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Chubb | 5th overall | 2nd Def Player | 1st DE/EDGE | +140 |
| Roquan Smith | 8th overall | 3rd Def Player | 1st LB | +400 |
| Marcus Davenport | 14th overall | 7th Def Player | 2nd DE/EDGE | +1000 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 16th overall | 8th Def Player | 2nd LB | +800 |
Not only was Bradley Chubb heralded as the best defensive player in the 2018 NFL Draft, but lining up opposite Von Miller in Denver is going to result in a lot of one-on-one opportunities for the former member of the Wolfpack. But +140 is too short for me.
Of the four players who meet our criteria, the value in Tremaine Edmunds at +800 is hard to pass up. He’s an extremely athletic linebacker who loves to play physical, and he can rush the passer.
The 16th-overall pick is going to start for Buffalo Week 1, and he’ll anchor a defense that projects to be on the field a ton. There will be plenty of opportunity for Edmunds to rack up tackles as teams are simply running the clock out on the Bills.
If you’re into the recent trend of corners winning the award, Jaire Alexander presents a fair amount of value at +1300.
With Aaron Rodgers back under center, Green Bay is going to put points on the board, forcing their opponents to put the ball in the air while playing from behind.
Be sure to check out our other NFL player awards odds trackers, too.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
