Colts Acquire Buckner After Texans Trade Away Hopkins – Houston Still Favored To Win AFC South, Should They Be?
- Colts’ acquisition of DeForest Buckner supercharges defensive line
- With Houston losing DeAndre Hopkins, is Indy a QB away from taking the division?
- Read below to see our pick to win the AFC South
It took just one afternoon into the legal tampering stage of NFL free agency to flip the AFC South on its head.
While everyone is trying to figure out what Bill O’Brien was thinking in dealing DeAndre Hopkins, the Indianapolis Colts also made a massive splash, trading the 13th overall pick in this summer’s draft for defensive lineman DeForest Buckner.
AFC South Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Houston Texans | +160 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +200 |
| Tennessee Titans | +225 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +1000 |
*Odds from March 16
Suddenly, the Colts have seen their NFL Divisional odds shorten from third to just behind Houston on the South betting charts. There’s still some work to do, but are they the team to wager on right now?
Buckner Strengthens D-Line
The Colts have been sitting on a promising roster and loads of cap space for the last couple of years, and this move by GM Chris Ballard signifies that Indy wants to move its chips all in.
DeForest Buckner’s stats the past two seasons. #Colts
• 129 tackles
• 26 tackles for loss
• 19.5 sacks
• 34 QB hitsMonster. pic.twitter.com/k5cEiW9wlh
— Locked On Colts Podcast (@LockedOnColts) March 16, 2020
The addition of Buckner — and the reported contractual commitment of a reported $21 million a year, which can’t be announced until Wednesday — gives the Colts a star on their defensive line.
This defense features legit talent with linebacker Darius Leonard and veteran sack artist Justin Houston, but they sagged to 17th in defensive DVOA after being a top-10 outfit the year prior.
DeForest Buckner (@DeForestBuckner) is really good at this move. He slaps & swims until he beats the OL. Shows great body control at the end for the sack! #49ers #PassRush pic.twitter.com/FwMIwLDCmn
— DLineVids (@dlinevids1) March 19, 2019
Even more alarming was the way teams were able to pick apart the Colts with the pass, allowing teams to complete 70% of their pass attempts in back-to-back seasons, according to ESPN Stats and Info. That’s an historic first and historic low all at the same time.
Buckner, who turns 26 this week, will hopefully be able to collapse the pocket and move that figure down. He’s coming off a 7.5-sack campaign a year ago, which included 14 QB hits and a pair of forced fumbles. His greatest ability might be durability: he’s missed just one game in his four-year career, and has played all 16 games the last three seasons.
His only real issue in San Francisco was the numbers. With so many talented defensive lineman — including Nick Bosa and Dee Ford — and other star players soon to be seeking big money like George Kittle, the 49ers had to choose between Buckner and Arik Armstead.
Deforest Buckner shows his support for his teammate Arik Armstead on IG after he signed his 5 year extension! pic.twitter.com/qXYH3vspwY
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) March 16, 2020
They announced an Armstead extension today on a five-year pact that could total $85 million.
First Of Many Colts Moves?
While acquiring Buckner aligns with their immediate and long term plans, a few more tweaks could easily move this club to Super Bowl contender.
As the legal tampering period kicks off at noon, would fully expect the Colts to pursue former Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, though Indianapolis also will look at other QB options.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 16, 2020
The next big piece would seem to be at QB, where Jacoby Brissett played admirably through injury but underwhelmed. Dealing their first round pick likely means they’ve got something cooking in free agency.
Philip Rivers has been rumored as a solution, partly because of his previous work with head coach Frank Reich, as well as the luxury of playing behind the Colts’ offensive line, one of the best in the NFL.
Jacoby Brissett on how he's handling the #Colts QB rumors:
"Just doing my job." pic.twitter.com/E90nyC2Smz
— Locked On Colts Podcast (@LockedOnColts) March 7, 2020
If Rivers plans to keep things in Florida, there’s still good quality quarterbacking around in Teddy Bridgewater, maybe (gulp) Tom Brady, or a chance flier on Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton.
If they can add some touches at the skill positions and in the secondary, this Colts team could be loaded.
What’s The Best Bet?
Losing a player of Hopkins’ caliber is going to hurt the Texans, and sooner or later the depletion of draft picks in the short term will catch up to Houston, and that definitely favors the Colts. I wouldn’t blame you for jumping on Indy right now.
The three biggest “Titan Killers” in the AFC South just 8 months ago were Andrew Luck, DeAndre Hopkins, and Calais Campbell. None are in the division anymore.
— Mike Herndon (@MikeMiracles) March 16, 2020
But the best value on the board to me are the Tennessee Titans. Monday shook the AFC South, but a night before, the Titans stabilized it by bringing re-signing Ryan Tannehill, essentially running back the main pieces that marched to the AFC title game.
Their continuity is being overlooked, with a sturdy defense, the best running back in the South in Derrick Henry (even with David Johnson arriving) and the best play-action game in the NFL to compliment it. It’s a good time to pounce, especially because the Colts have more work to do to round out that roster.
The pick: Titans (+250)
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
