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Colts-Chiefs Opening Spread: Will KC Open 5-0 For Third Straight Season?

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Mar 31, 2020 · 9:55 AM PDT

Chiefs coach Andy Reid on sideline
The Kansas City Chiefs are 10-point favorites over the Indianapolis Colts, as they're poised to start 5-0 for the third straight season under coach Andy Reid. By Jeffrey Beall (Wikimedia) [CC License].
  • The 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs are 10-point favorites over the 2-2 Indianapolis Colts
  • Kansas City is 2-7 against the spread in its last nine home games against Indy
  • Read below and see our game preview to see if KC can move to 5-0

The Kansas City Chiefs must be getting a sense of familiarity as they prepare to face the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football.

The Chiefs are a win away from launching the NFL campaign 5-0 for the third successive season. Last year, Kansas City beat the Colts in the Divisional Playoff round.

Books are certainly on board with the Chiefs keeping things rolling. They’ve opened with Kansas City as the 10-point chalk in the Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs odds & stats.

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Indianapolis Colts n/a +10 (-110) Over 56.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs n/a -10 (-110) Under 56.5 (-110)

*Odds taken 09/29/19.

The Colts have won outright in two of their last three visits to Arrowhead Stadium.

Chiefs Find a Way Against Lions

After three weeks of lighting up opponents, quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Cheifs were issued the first real test of their mettle. It wasn’t pretty but Kansas City found a way and outlasted the Detroit Lions 34-30 on the road.

Mahomes, who’d passed for at least three touchdowns in each of his first three games, was held without a scoring pass in a regular-season game for the first time since Week 5 of the 2018 season against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It should be noted the Colts also held Mahomes without a TD pass in last season’s playoff game.

His yards per completion of 7.5 marked the first time all season Mahomes was checked on less than 10 yards per pass. But Kansas City used its ground game to churn out three TDs and fashion the win.

Kansas City’s much-maligned defense also came through. Bashaud Breeland scooped up a Kerryon Johnson fumble and rambled 100 yards for a TD.

Colts Cough One Up

The difference between these two teams can perhaps be emphasized by their respective performances against the Oakland Raiders.

In Week 2, the Chiefs spotted Oakland a 10-0 lead. They kept their composure and came charging back for a decisive 28-10 victory.

Sunday, the Colts spotted the Raiders a 14-0 advantage. Then they came apart at the seams.

The NFL’s second-least penalized team entering the game, Indy was flagged for 30 yards in first-half penalties. The Colts turned the ball over in the red zone.

Colts QB Jacoby Brissett was victimized for a pick-six in their 31-24 loss.

Indy’s Numbers Solid vs KC

There’s plenty of history to suggest that you should give the Colts a serious look to record the upset in this game.

Indy has won two of three straight up at Kansas City. The Colts are 7-2 SU in their last nine at Arrowhead Stadium.

Overall, the Colts are 12-5 against the spread in their last 17 meetings with the Chiefs. That includes a 7-2 ATS the last nine times Indy has visited Kansas City.

The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a double-digit point favorite. They are 1-3 ATS in their last four games as a double-digit home favorite.

Although the over has proven to be the winning play in four of Kansas City’s last five games, the under looks to be the better bet here. The total has gone under in four of the past five Chiefs-Colts games. As well, KC has gone under in eight of its last 10 against AFC South opponents.

The under has also won out in five of Indy’s last seven road games, and in seven of the last 10 Colts games against AFC opposition.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts [+10 (-110), Under 56.5 (-110)].

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