Colts vs Texans Week 12 Thursday Night Football Props: A Bounce Back Spot for Watson
- Week 12 kicks off with the Colts versus the Texans on Thursday Night Football (Nov. 21)
- Our TNF props were 1-2 last week for -1.0 units (+2.47 units for the season)
- Deshaun Watson needs to bounce back after a horrible game versus the Ravens
It’s hard to get any momentum going in the props game. We followed up our perfect 3-0 card in Week 10, with a disappointing 1-2 showing in Week 11, leaving us +2.47 units heading into Thursday Night’s tilt between the Colts and Texans.
Houston is currently a 3.5-point favorite which bodes well for Deshaun Watson’s outlook. Last week, in a 34-point loss to the Ravens, the Texans ran only 57 plays. This game projects to be close, and if it stays that way, Watson will have plenty of opportunity to rack up yards with his arm and his feet.
Prop #1: Deshaun Watson Over/Under 26.5 Rushing yards
Rushing Yards | Odds |
---|---|
Over 26.5 | -113 |
Under 26.5 | -113 |
All odds taken Nov. 20
Watson ranks fourth in rushing yards among quarterbacks this season, averaging 29.1 yards on the ground per game. He’s racked up 32 or more rushing yards in five of his last six starts, including in Week 7 against these very same Colts. He’s had at least seven carries in three of his past five games, and has 184 rushing yards in four career starts versus Indy.
The shake. The twirl. The TD.
Second rushing score for No. 4!@deshaunwatson | #HOUvsKC pic.twitter.com/Q8LNmXG2gs
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 13, 2019
The Colts are very stout against opposing running backs, which means Watson could have the ball in his hands even more than usual which is great for this bet. The more he drops back, the more opportunity he’ll have to take off and scramble if the coverage holds up. Eclipsing 26.5 rushing yards shouldn’t be a problem.
Pick: Watson Over 26.5 rushing yards (-113)
Risk: 1 unit to win .088 units
Prop #2: Carlos Hyde Over/Under 63.5 Rushing yards
Rushing Yards | Odds |
---|---|
Over 63.5 | -113 |
Under 63.5 | -113 |
As bullish as I am on Watson’s rushing outlook, I’m equally as bearish on Hyde’s. The Colts are excellent at limiting enemy backs (as noted earlier), and have held them to 3.06 yards per carry over the last three games. Back in Week 7, Hyde managed just 35 yards rushing on 12 attempts, and Houston boasts a bottom-11 run blocking unit according to Pro Football Focus.
Hyde also runs the risk of losing snaps to Duke Johnson, especially if game script doesn’t go in the Texans favor. If Houston happens to fall behind early, Hyde could spend the majority of the game on the sidelines while the Texans are in catch up mode.
Pick: Hyde Under 63.5 rushing yards (-113)
Risk: 1 unit to win .088 units
Prop #3: DeAndre Hopkins Over/Under 6.5 Receptions
Receptions | Odds |
---|---|
Over 6.5 | -113 |
Under 6.5 | -113 |
Hopkins has been a usage monster lately, racking up at least 11 targets in five straight, and 7 or more receptions in six straight. He’s failed to record at least 7 receptions in just three of 10 games this season, and the last time he faced the Colts he caught 9 balls for 106 yards and a touchdown.
Now he gets to line-up against a hobbled Pierre Desir, or better yet his backup if Desir can’t go, in a very favorable matchup. Hopkins is always Watson’s first look, but he tends to get even more love against Indy. Over the last four games versus the Colts, he’s seen an average of 12 targets, and he should be able to run circles around the Texans 28th ranked coverage unit.
Pick: Hopkins Over 6.5 receptions (-113)
Risk: 1 unit to win .088 units