Daniel Jones Favored to Be Second-Year QB to Win the Most Games – Are Murray, Lock, or Haskins a Better Bet?
- The New York Giants’ Daniel Jones is favored to have the most wins of any second-year NFL quarterback in 2020
- Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year last season
- Drew Lock won four of his five late-season starts as a rookie with the Denver Broncos
The wins were scarce for Daniel Jones in his rookie season last year. Yet the oddsmakers believe the New York Giants quarterback will have more success the second time around.
Jones is the favorite to lead all second-year quarterbacks in wins 2020. A year ago, Jones replaced Eli Manning as the starter in Week 3 and the Giants won just three of his 13 starts.
Odds on Most Wins by Second-Year QB in 2020
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Daniel Jones (Giants) | +160 |
| Kyler Murray (Cardinals) | +175 |
| Drew Lock (Broncos) | +275 |
| Dwayne Haskins (Washington) | +450 |
Odds taken Sept. 11.
Rookie Success and Failure
Jones is one of four second-year starting quarterbacks in the NFL. The others are the Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, the Denver Broncos’ Drew Lock, and the Washington Football Team’s Dwayne Haskins.
The four were a mixed bag in their rookie seasons and only one posted a winning record. Here is a look at how they fared in 2019:
2019 Rookie QB Comparison
| Players | Starts | Wins | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock (Broncos) | 5 | 4 | .800 |
| Kyler Murray (Cardinals) | 16 | 5 | .313 |
| Dwayne Haskins (Washington) | 7 | 2 | .286 |
| Daniel Jones (Giants) | 12 | 3 | .250 |
The fact that Jones is the favorite is a bit of a surprise. While he threw 24 touchdown passes a year ago on a bad team, he was intercepted 12 times and lost a whopping 11 fumbles.
Jones also had a 61.9 completion percentage and passed for 3,027 yards.
His teammates think highly of him, though.
Daniel Jones talks about being voted a captain by his teammates:
"Being voted by your teammates is a tremendous honor. It's something I don't take lightly at all" pic.twitter.com/oFWPoTzed7
— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) September 9, 2020
While the Giants have won a total of 12 games over the past three seasons, the offense should be better this year.
Saquon Barkley was slowed by an ankle injury but is one of the best running backs in the league when healthy. The Giants used the fourth-overall selection in this year’s draft to take left tackle Andrew Thomas from Georgia.
Jones also figures to be better overall with a year of experience under his belt.
Murray Shined in ’19
Murray won the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award last season and it was well-deserved.
The 2019 first-overall pick from Oklahoma lived up to his lofty billing and silenced the critics who said he was too short to be an NFL quarterback at 5’10.
While he took a league-high 48 sacks, Murray completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 3,722 yards and 20 touchdowns along with 12 interceptions. He added 544 yards and four rushing TDs.
Murray will have a true No. 1 receiver to work with this season in DeAndre Hopkins, who was acquired from the Houston Texans in an offseason trade. Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and Larry Fitzgerald should be a formidable trio of pass catchers.
And look for Murray to absorb hits a little bit better this season. He added 10 pounds after increased weightlifting in the offseason.
Lock a Strong Finisher
Lock will be the starter from Week 1 this season for the Broncos after replacing Joe Flacco for the 12th game of last season.
In five games as a rookie, Lock made a good first impression after spending three months on injured reserve with a thumb injury. He had a 64.1-percent completion percentage, 1,020 passing yards, seven touchdowns passes, and three interceptions.
The Broncos used the draft to get weapons for Lock to utilize.
They selected wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler in the first two rounds and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, Lock’s teammate at Missouri, in the fourth round. Running back Melvin Gordon was added through free agency.
One drawback could be that Lock and new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur are still getting familiar with each other after the COVID-19 pandemic wiped out the offseason.
Lock studied hard, though, while in quarantine.
Like a lot of millennials, Drew Lock moved back to his parent's basement for the start of quarantine. It was the longes time he's been at home since HS. His mom set up a quiet study table, phones were not allowed. Here he is studying the Broncos new O.https://t.co/w4BNsym8wu pic.twitter.com/IERqQuf62w
— Kalyn Kahler (@kalynkahler) September 5, 2020
Haskins struggled in his nearly half-season as a starter last year, completing 58.6 of his passes for 1,365 yards and seven touchdowns with seven interceptions. His passer rating was just 76.1.
He also faces the task of having to prove himself to a new regime. The Bruce Allen-Jay Gruden tandem that drafted Haskins was fired last season and Ron Rivera is now in charge.
Haskins will also have a group of unproven running backs lining up behind him.
Win Totals as Guide
Using the NFL win totals as the predictive tool for this prop, Murray or Lock is the choice. The Cardinals and Broncos both have 7.5 win totals, while the Giants and Washington are at 6.0 and 5.0, respectively.
The choice here is Murray. He had success last season, now has a big-time target in Hopkins, has a more buff body, and an offensive-minded coach in Kliff Kingsbury.
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.
