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David Montgomery’s 2019 OROY Odds Fade After Quiet Week 1; Should You Bet Him Now?

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Will the Chicago Bears run David Montgomery more than they did in Week 1? Photo by Jim Larrison (Flickr) CC License.
  • Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery had just six carries and 18 rushing yards in Week 1
  • The Bears are likely to recommit to the ground game after passing a whopping 45 times against Green Bay
  • Montgomery’s odds to win OROY have dropped to +1500; is now a good time to invest?

The Chicago Bears offense and rookie running back David Montgomery had a really rough outing in their Week 1 opener. They lost 10-3 to the Green Bay Packers and displayed no rhythm or consistency on offense. Montgomery only had six carries and, as a result, his Offensive Rookie of the Year odds have fallen.

Is now the time to bet him?

2019 NFL OROY Rookie of the Year Odds

Player Odds at Bovada
Kyler Murray (QB, Cardinals) +150
Josh Jacobs (RB, Raiders) +500
Devin Singletary (RB, Bills) +1000
Marquise Brown (WR, Ravens) +1000
D.K. Metcalf (WR, Seahawks) +1200
David Montgomery (RB, Bears) +1500

*Odds taken 09/12/19

Bears Forget About Montgomery

There was a steady hype-train for Montgomery all offseason as the Bears talked him up. He backed it up with preseason performances and was then expected to deliver in the regular season. However, in Week 1, the Bears coaching staff completely forgot about him.

Montgomery had just six carries in Week 1 while the coaching staff called 45 passes for Mitchell Trubisky. It’s a bizarre split because it was a one-score game and the Bears are typically a run-first, pass-second offense.

Montgomery should have had many more opportunities.

Bears Will Recommit To The Run

There’s no question that the ground game didn’t work in Week 1. As a team, the Bears had just 46 yards on 12 carries, which is probably why they went away from Montgomery. However, expect them to recommit as that’s the identity of this team.

It’ll start this weekend at Denver. Some viewed the Broncos defense as one of the better units in the NFL, but I just don’t see it. They’re a shell of their former selves and the Oakland Raiders exposed them on Monday Night Football.

Oakland’s own rookie rusher, Josh Jacobs, surpassed 100 yards from scrimmage, which bodes well for Montgomery’s chances.

After that, Chicago will visit the Washington Redskins, then come home to face the Minnesota Vikings, and then play the Oakland Raiders in London.

Regardless of the opponent, though, expect more opportunities for the running backs, and Montgomery in particular.

Is Montgomery A Good Bet?

Now is, in fact, a good time to bet Montgomery on the NFL OROY odds if you like him to win the award. You’re buying in at a good time as his odds have dropped following a muted effort in Week 1. His odds were around +860 and have now dropped to +1500.

My issue is that this offense just isn’t very good, overall. They’re limited by Trubisky who, as Pro Football Focus has indicated many times, is not a good quarterback. Teams will stack the box and force him to be a passer, which doesn’t always work out well for Chicago.

The Bears overachieved last season thanks, in part, to a soft schedule and an unsustainably good defensive performance. This year, they have a much more rigorous calendar to get through. That includes three teams in the division who should be improved, as we saw in Week 1.

Add it all up and I don’t think it’s a situation that’s conducive to a strong statistical season for Montgomery. I expect him to be in the race for OROY, but players like Jacobs, Kyler Murray and Devin Singletary should have better numbers than him at the end of the season.

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