Gardner Minshew Not Listed on 2019 OROY Odds Board After Week 1
- Nick Foles broke his clavicle in Week 1, paving the way for Gardner Minshew
- Minshew torched the Chiefs, throwing for 275 yards and two touchdowns
- Yet Minshew has yet to receive the love in OROY betting
Nick Foles’ loss, is Gardner Minshew’s gain.
Jacksonville’s prized offseason acquisition had a brief debut. After eight passes, which included a touchdown, Foles walked down the tunnel in pain. It was revealed after the game that he broke his clavicle.
He was expected to undergo surgery Monday.
But instead of folding on the big stage, Gardner Minshew stepped up.
Wait…who?
Exactly.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | +150 |
| Josh Jacobs | +500 |
| Devin Singletary | +1000 |
| Marquise Brown | +1000 |
| DK Metcalf | +1200 |
| TJ Hockenson | +1200 |
| David Montgomery | +1400 |
| Miles Sanders | +1400 |
| Daniel Jones | +1600 |
| Mecole Hardman | +2200 |
| Dwayne Haskins | +2800 |
| Darrell Henderson | +3300 |
| AJ Brown | +5000 |
| Deebo Samuel | +5000 |
*Odds taken Sept 11, 2019
Sunday was a good day for some rookies.
Marquise Brown was one of those. Hollywood’s massive day in Miami saw him shoot up the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. Kyler Murray’s still on top, but Brown’s gaining ground.
Gardner Minshew is out here ballin out ? @GardnerMinshew5 pic.twitter.com/t8IUnsGrqA
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) September 8, 2019
Sunday was really good for Minshew, but he’s still not even listed in the OROY odds despite his impressive relief appearance.
But before we get to whether or not he could be a good buy should sportsbooks decide to include him…
Just Who is Gardner Minshew?
Don’t feel bad about asking this question. He probably ended up being the most searched name on the internet Sunday afternoon.
Also, he’s not Dwight Goodman from Dodgeball.
No, this is not Ben Stiller
This is @Jaguars in-game active Quarterback Gardner Minshew ? pic.twitter.com/qjOsumppFF
— NFL UK (@NFLUK) September 8, 2019
He was a sixth-round pick this year out of Washington State. He was First Team in the Pac-12 and Offensive Player of the Year.
Minshew actually put together a pretty good college carer.
Gardner Minshew’s College Stats
| Season | School | Record | Yards | TD/INT | Comp % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | East Carolina | 1-6 | 1,347 | 8/4 | 58.9 |
| 2017 | East Carolina | 2-8 | 2,140 | 16/7 | 57.2 |
| 2018 | Washington State | 11-2 | 4,776 | 38/9 | 70.7 |
While the completion percentage wasn’t great at first, he had a 2:1 TD/INT ratio. Then he exploded when he transferred to Washington State.
Minshew’s ascension from unheralded graduate transfer to Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year is indicative of the enigma he is in the 2018 draft. He could become a good QB3 in a timing-based passing attack that conceals his average arm talent. – NFL.com
So there’s something there.
What’s On Tap For Gardner Minshew?
The typical recovery for a broken clavicle is six-to-eight weeks.
Jacksonville’s bye week is Week 10, so let’s assume they use it to give Foles the extra time. With that as our guideline, here’s the Jaguars’ upcoming schedule.
Jaguars’ Next Eight Games
| Week | Opponent | Passing Yards Against (Week 1) | TD/INT (Week 1) | Completion % (Week 1) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | @ Texans | 370 | 2/1 | 74.4% | 30-28 (L) |
| 3 | vs Titans | 285 | 1/3 | 65.8% | 43-13 (W) |
| 4 | @ Broncos | 245.6 | 1.6/1.1 | 64.3% | N/A |
| 5 | @ Panthers | 186 | 1/1 | 60% | 30-27 (L) |
| 6 | vs Saints | 268 | 3/1 | 66% | 30-28 (W) |
| 7 | @ Bengals | 196 | 2/0 | 70% | 21-20 (L) |
| 8 | vs Jets | 254 | 1/2 | 64.9% | 17-16 (L) |
| 9 | vs Texans | 370 | 2/1 | 74.4% | 30-28 (L) |
*2018 regular season average used
Minshew is going to be facing some tough defenses. He also goes to some tough places to play.
To put this in perspective, the Chiefs team he shredded allowed an average of 273 yards last year. That would be the second-highest total on the table above.
Those games against the Texans (x2), Broncos, and Saints will be real tests. By the end of this stretch, we’ll know if Foles has been Wally Pipped or not.
We’ll also know if he’s coming back to a lost season, or a surreal playoff push.
Could Minshew Be Worth an OROY Investment?
Despite setting the Jags’ franchise record for completion percentage, it’s tough to see his success continuing. And with no current odds on him listed, it’s hard to gauge his value.
According to Elias, Gardner Minshew's streak of 13 consecutive completions to begin his career is the longest streak by a player to start their career who debuted over the last 40 years. The previous longest over the last 40 years was nine by Brad Johnson in 1994.
— Michael DiRocco (@ESPNdirocco) September 8, 2019
He has a tough slate coming up, and he’s going up against four high-flying offenses. The Jags didn’t pay Nick Foles all that money to hold a clipboard either, so he’ll likely take his role back when healthy.
If Minshew keeps putting up numbers? You can always circle back.
In terms of players worth their odds, Murray had his ups and downs against Detroit but it was a good debut. If the QB doesn’t offer enough value for you, then Marquise Brown or Terry McLaurin may be the way to go after Week 1.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
