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Joe Burrow Heavily Favored in Opening 2020 NFL OROY Odds, Tua Second on Board

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Apr 22, 2020 · 12:05 PM PDT

Joe Burrow dropping back to pass
LSU quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow is the +250 favorite to win the 2020-21 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Photo by Tammy Anthony Baker (Wiki Commons).
  • Heisman Trophy-winner Joe Burrow is the +250 favorite to win the 2020-21 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award
  • Can Burrow follow in the footsteps of 2018 winner Kyler Murray, who also won the Heisman and NFL OROY in successive seasons?
  • Analysis and odds on all the leading contenders are studied in the story below

Tua Tagovailoa was originally favored to win the 2019 Heisman Trophy. Joe Burrow won the Heisman.

Burrow is favored to win the 2020-21 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, just ahead of Tagovailoa.

Sportsbooks are out with their opening line on the NFL OROY and they like Heisman-winning LSU quarterback Burrow in a big way. He’s the +250 chalk to win the award.

Alabama QB Tagovailoa, whose Heisman hopes were halted by a season-ending dislocated hip, is the +800 second-favorite in the NFL OROY odds.

2020-21 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

Player School Position Odds
Joe Burrow LSU QB +250
Tua Tagovailoa Alabama QB +800
D’Andre Swift Georgia RB +900
Jonathan Taylor Wisconsin RB +1100
Jerry Jeudy Alabama WR +1400
Justin Herbert Oregon QB +1400
CeeDee Lamb Oklahoma WR +1500
Henry Ruggs III Alabama WR +1800
JK Dobbins Ohio State RB +1800
Clyde Edwards-Helaire LSU RB +2000
Cam Akers Florida State RB +2400
Zack Moss Utah RB +2500
Denzel Mims Baylor WR +2800
Tee Higgins Clemson WR +2800
Jalen Reagor TCU WR +3000
KJ Hamler Penn State WR +3300
Justin Jefferson LSU WR +3500
Jordan Love Utah State QB +3500
Laviska Shenault Jr Colorado WR +3500
KJ Hill Ohio State WR +4000

Odds taken March 27th. 

Last year, 2018 Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray won the NFL OROY Award.

Burrow No Average Joe

There are other similarities in the win last season by Murray and the expectations that are surrounding Burrow.

Murray was the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Burrow is expected to be the first overall pick in the NFL Draft.

Murray was the first player to win the Heisman, go first overall in the draft and win NFL OROY since Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers in 2010-11. Curiously,  Newton’s win came immediately on the heels of QB Sam Bradford of the Los Angeles Rams also picking up the Heisman, #1 overall pick and NFL OROY trio in 2009-10.

Whether the Cincinnati Bengals keep the pick, or opt to deal it to the Miami Dolphins, as has been rumored in some NFL circles, both teams are in the market for a quarterback. And Burrow is the guy they most covet.

Murray’s opening line in last year’s NFL OROY odds was also +250.

Tua Takes Time

When he suffered his hip injury in a November game against Mississippi Stae, there was some concern that Tagovalioa might never play football again.

Absent the chance to work out for teams due to the coronavirus shutdown, Tagovailoa is doing his best to alleviate any concerns teams might hold. He recently posted a workout video on his Twitter feed.

It shows the Crimson Tide QB displaying his mobility, seeking to offer indications that his hip has healed.

Regardless, whatever team drafts him, it’s unlikely they’re going to throw him to the wolves. Tagovailoa will be given extra time to ensure he’s 100% healthy before he’s exposed to NFL defenses.

No Alabama QB has ever been voted NFL OROY.

On The Run

Murray’s win last season ended a two-year reign over the NFL OROY by running backs. Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants won in 2018. Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints was a surprise winner in 2017.

It’s a down draft year for running backs, though. Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor might be the only first-round pick. He also looks to be the most NFL-ready running back.

Avoid Wideouts

It’s a deep draft in terms of wide receivers. Jerry Jeudy (+1400), CeeDee Lamb (+1500), and Henry Ruggs III (+1800) all offer enticing value.

Don’t go there. It’s fool’s gold.

Wideouts own one of the past 10 NFL OROY Awards. They’ve won just twice since 2004, three times since 1999 and show four wins since 1993.

Stick With Favorites

There’s always exceptions to every rule – Kamara for example – but top-rated players generally stay true to form in the NFL OROY race.

Barkley was the opening chalk in 2018. Murray was favored last year.

Don’t dig yourself into a hole. Go with Burrow.

Pick: Joe Burrow (+250).

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