Joe Burrow Heavily Favored in Opening 2020 NFL OROY Odds, Tua Second on Board
- Heisman Trophy-winner Joe Burrow is the +250 favorite to win the 2020-21 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award
- Can Burrow follow in the footsteps of 2018 winner Kyler Murray, who also won the Heisman and NFL OROY in successive seasons?
- Analysis and odds on all the leading contenders are studied in the story below
Tua Tagovailoa was originally favored to win the 2019 Heisman Trophy. Joe Burrow won the Heisman.
Burrow is favored to win the 2020-21 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, just ahead of Tagovailoa.
Sportsbooks are out with their opening line on the NFL OROY and they like Heisman-winning LSU quarterback Burrow in a big way. He’s the +250 chalk to win the award.
Alabama QB Tagovailoa, whose Heisman hopes were halted by a season-ending dislocated hip, is the +800 second-favorite in the NFL OROY odds.
2020-21 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds
Player | School | Position | Odds |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Burrow | LSU | QB | +250 |
Tua Tagovailoa | Alabama | QB | +800 |
D’Andre Swift | Georgia | RB | +900 |
Jonathan Taylor | Wisconsin | RB | +1100 |
Jerry Jeudy | Alabama | WR | +1400 |
Justin Herbert | Oregon | QB | +1400 |
CeeDee Lamb | Oklahoma | WR | +1500 |
Henry Ruggs III | Alabama | WR | +1800 |
JK Dobbins | Ohio State | RB | +1800 |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | LSU | RB | +2000 |
Cam Akers | Florida State | RB | +2400 |
Zack Moss | Utah | RB | +2500 |
Denzel Mims | Baylor | WR | +2800 |
Tee Higgins | Clemson | WR | +2800 |
Jalen Reagor | TCU | WR | +3000 |
KJ Hamler | Penn State | WR | +3300 |
Justin Jefferson | LSU | WR | +3500 |
Jordan Love | Utah State | QB | +3500 |
Laviska Shenault Jr | Colorado | WR | +3500 |
KJ Hill | Ohio State | WR | +4000 |
Odds taken March 27th.
Last year, 2018 Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray won the NFL OROY Award.
Burrow No Average Joe
There are other similarities in the win last season by Murray and the expectations that are surrounding Burrow.
Murray was the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Burrow is expected to be the first overall pick in the NFL Draft.
.@Joe_Burrow10 had one of the greatest seasons in college football history.
▫️Heisman
▫️SEC Championship
▫️National Championship
▫️First 15-0 season in SEC history
▫️Most Pass TD in a season in FBS history (60)
▫️Most TD responsible for in a season in FBS history (65) pic.twitter.com/jJ5ge9MGcr— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) March 23, 2020
Murray was the first player to win the Heisman, go first overall in the draft and win NFL OROY since Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers in 2010-11. Curiously, Newton’s win came immediately on the heels of QB Sam Bradford of the Los Angeles Rams also picking up the Heisman, #1 overall pick and NFL OROY trio in 2009-10.
Whether the Cincinnati Bengals keep the pick, or opt to deal it to the Miami Dolphins, as has been rumored in some NFL circles, both teams are in the market for a quarterback. And Burrow is the guy they most covet.
Murray’s opening line in last year’s NFL OROY odds was also +250.
Tua Takes Time
When he suffered his hip injury in a November game against Mississippi Stae, there was some concern that Tagovalioa might never play football again.
Absent the chance to work out for teams due to the coronavirus shutdown, Tagovailoa is doing his best to alleviate any concerns teams might hold. He recently posted a workout video on his Twitter feed.
Practicing social distancing with the long ball today. Feels good to spin it again. #Process pic.twitter.com/BZnBF7Sfdc
— Tua. T ?? (@Tuaamann) March 24, 2020
It shows the Crimson Tide QB displaying his mobility, seeking to offer indications that his hip has healed.
Regardless, whatever team drafts him, it’s unlikely they’re going to throw him to the wolves. Tagovailoa will be given extra time to ensure he’s 100% healthy before he’s exposed to NFL defenses.
No Alabama QB has ever been voted NFL OROY.
On The Run
Murray’s win last season ended a two-year reign over the NFL OROY by running backs. Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants won in 2018. Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints was a surprise winner in 2017.
Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor TURNED ON THE BURNERS with a 4.41u 40 ⚡️@JayT23
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/YrZGNHS0wV
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) February 29, 2020
It’s a down draft year for running backs, though. Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor might be the only first-round pick. He also looks to be the most NFL-ready running back.
Avoid Wideouts
It’s a deep draft in terms of wide receivers. Jerry Jeudy (+1400), CeeDee Lamb (+1500), and Henry Ruggs III (+1800) all offer enticing value.
Don’t go there. It’s fool’s gold.
Jerry Jeudy, WR1.
He is the top pure separator in this class. He consistently wins at the intermediate and deep levels of the field with strong route-running and releases at the LOS. And his YAC ability is also a huge plus.pic.twitter.com/jOUpQ5SdhI
— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) March 23, 2020
Wideouts own one of the past 10 NFL OROY Awards. They’ve won just twice since 2004, three times since 1999 and show four wins since 1993.
Stick With Favorites
There’s always exceptions to every rule – Kamara for example – but top-rated players generally stay true to form in the NFL OROY race.
Clean pocket passing grade:
1. Joe Burrow, LSU – 94.9
2. Justin Fields, OSU – 94.1
3. Micale Cunningham, UL – 93.0 pic.twitter.com/P0KwTgXj8t— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) March 26, 2020
Barkley was the opening chalk in 2018. Murray was favored last year.
Don’t dig yourself into a hole. Go with Burrow.
Pick: Joe Burrow (+250).