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Chiefs Open as 7-Point Favorites Against the Raiders in Week 11, Despite Losing the First Meeting This Season

Kevin Allen

by Kevin Allen in NFL Football

Updated Mar 3, 2021 · 11:52 AM PST

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws the ball into the stands while being cheered on by Chiefs center Austin Reiter (62) and Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) after scoring against the Cleveland Browns during the NFL divisional round football game, Sunday, Jan. 17, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs’ only loss this season came to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5; the Chiefs are still 7-point favorites for their Week 11 meeting (Nov. 22. 8:20 p.m. ET)
  • The Chiefs had a bye in Week 10, while the Raiders beat the Denver Broncos 37-12 
  • See opening odds, team overviews, and a prediction about how the line will move

When the Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) lost 40-32 to the Las Vegas Raiders (6-3) in Week 5, Patrick Mahomes completed only 51.1% of his passes. We can guess he hasn’t forgotten that.

Even though Mahomes threw for 340 yards in that game, it was his worst performance of the season.  He had a quarterback rating of 83.5, well below his season average of 115.9.  By contrast, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr completed 70.9% of his passes and owned his season-best 126.7 quarterback rating in that game.

Carr found plenty of holes in the Chiefs’ secondary.  The reason why the Chiefs are favored by 7 points is they have been impressive since that lost. They have racked up four consecutive wins since then, giving up 20 or more points only once

 

Chiefs vs Raiders Opening Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Kansas City Chiefs -330 -7 (-110) Over 55 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders +265 +7 (-110) Under 55 (-110)

Odds taken Nov. 15th at FanDuel

 

Mahomes Enjoying a Monster Season

Mahomes was one of the NFL’s hottest players going into the Chiefs’ Week 10 bye.  In Weeks 8 and 9, Mahomes was 61-for-87 passing for 786 yards and nine touchdowns.

With how well he’s playing, consider that Mahomes boasts 25 TD passes and has thrown only one interception this season. He has only six interceptions in his last 23 starts.

His 25 touchdown tosses are also one fewer than he threw all of last season when he took the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. He’s only slightly behind the pace he was at in 2018 when he led the NFL with 50 touchdown passes.  Mahomes’ 66.9% completion percentage is the best of his young career,

Raiders Grind Up Broncos With Strong Ground Game

The spotlight has mostly been on Carr for the Raiders’ success this season. However, it was the Vegas rushing attack that paved the way for a lopsided win against Denver.

The Raiders piled up 203 yards on the ground, with Josh Jacobs totaling 112 yards and two touchdowns.  Davontae Booker also scored twice while running for 81 yards. Both backs averaged better than five yards per carry against Denver.

Jacobs is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry this season, but he averaged 102 yards per game over the past three games with a 4.6-yards-per-carry average. The Raiders will need Jacobs’ running to set-up Carr’s passing if they want to beat the Chiefs again. Jacobs posted 77 yards and  two TDs when the Raiders won in Week 5.

Raiders’ Injury Situation Should Improve vs  Chiefs

The Raiders have been overrun by injuries and illness, particularly on the offensive line, but they may get  help for their Week 11 matchup against Kansas City.

Offensive lineman Richie Incognito (Achilles) is expected to return in Week 11 and tackle Kolton Miller (ankle)  might be ready. His practice participation will determine his status. Tackle Trent Brown will still be out (Covid-19 list) a few weeks.

Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed (collarbone) is expected to be ready to play against at Las Vegas. Cornerback Antonio Hamilton (hamstring) is currently listed as questionable.

Kansas City defensive end Taco Charlton won’t play. Offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz (back) and receiver Sammy Watkins (hamstring) are questionable for Week 11, although we will also learn more about their status this week.

Spread Should Remain Stable for Chiefs vs Raiders

We are moving toward Week 11, and everyone has a good idea of the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. Because the Raiders won the first meeting, and because they are based in Vegas,  early betting could move the spread in their direction. Getting seven points with the Raiders is inviting.

But Mahomes has looked so sharp over the past two weeks, it’s hard to believe the spread wouldn’t move back toward the Chiefs before game time.

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