Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Picks, Prediction & Updated Betting Lines (Week 9)

• The Super Bowl favorite Chiefs head on the road for what could be their final game at Highmark Stadium.
• Can the Bills win their fifth-straight regular-season game over the Chiefs?
• Read below for my Chiefs vs Bills picks and predictions as well as the updated betting lines

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Once again, the Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) and Buffalo Bills (5-2) square off for AFC supremacy. The Chiefs are red-hot, coming off three straight wins while the Bills got back on the horse last week with a dominant win. Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park plays host to a 4:25 pm ET kickoff on a CBS broadcast.

I have made my Chiefs vs Bills pick below. Keep reading for three key players to watch (and related props) as well as the updated betting odds for this playoff rematch.

KC Chiefs vs BUF Bills Picks & Predictions

• Chiefs -1.5 (-110, Underdog)

While the Chiefs have not beaten the Bills in the regular season since 2020, I think this is the year they get it done, despite having to go on the road to Buffalo. With Rashee Rice back, the Chiefs have averaged 29.5 points per game with 433 yards per game over their last two games.

The Bills rebounded last week with a 31-point win in Carolina, but they had dropped their previous two games. Buffalo had an uncharacteristic five total turnovers in those games, and their run defense has struggled mightily.

In what could be a postseason preview yet again, I am backing the Chiefs to go on the road and get an integral win at Highmark Stadium.

• Kareem Hunt Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-114, DraftKings)

Chiefs’ running backs have struggled this season, but they seem to have found a groove in recent weeks. The Chiefs have had a back exceed 45.5 rushing yards in four straight games, including Kareem Hunt back in Week 5. Last week, Hunt only had 40 yards, but he was splitting carries with the now-injured Isiah Pacheco.

Kareem Hunt helps put the Chiefs on the board first 🍿

(via: @NFL)pic.twitter.com/fndXoMBRAo

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) October 28, 2025

Last season, Hunt surpassed 45.5 yards in eight of 12 regular-season games and one playoff game. He averaged 62 yards per game against the Bills, clearing 45.5 yards in both games.

Buffalo’s run defense has been less than stellar this season. Part of this is a pair of gargantuan rushing games from Bijan Robinson (170 yards) and Derrick Henry (169 yards), but nine total rushers have surpassed 45.5 yards against the Bills this season. Last week, Rico Dowdle managed to get 54 yards on only eight carries against the Bills.

• James Cook Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards (-114, FanDuel)

In seven games played this season, James Cook has cleared this line five times. He has 19 runs of 10 yards on the season, including a whopping seven last week. Cook is second in the NFL in rushing yards and 10-yard runs. His 6.0 yards per carry leads the NFL, and he has a narrow lead on Jonathan Taylor for most rushing yards per game.

JAMES COOK REACHES FOR THE TD

📺: #BUFvsKC on CBS
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus and Paramount+ pic.twitter.com/Xx3oSfVhul

— NFL (@NFL) January 27, 2025

The Chiefs’ run defense has been excellent in recent weeks, holding the Raiders and Commanders to 85 total rushing yards. However, they had been gashed for at least 90 yards in each of the first six games of the season.

The Chiefs have allowed just eight 14-yard runs this season. That said, the most comparable rushing attack to Buffalo is the Ravens’ unit, which managed three such rushes in their Week 4 defeat. With an extra eye on Josh Allen in the backfield, it might only take one broken tackle for Cook to break through for a 14-yard run to cash this prop.

• Rashee Rice – Most Receiving Yards (+160, BetMGM)

Rashee Rice has been second in receiving yards in both games since returning, averaging 67.5 yards per contest. He has three touchdowns in the span, however.

In his last five healthy games, Rice has led the matchup in receiving yards once, coming in second in the other four games. Despite this spotty history, I am backing Rice in this spot because the Bills have an “everyone eats” mantra in the passing offense, and I also anticipate the Bills committing extra resources to stop Travis Kelce from his usual tomfoolery against the Bills.

The Bills have four pass catchers who average between 38 and 52 yards per game. They have a remarkably even target share in the group when accounting for the game that Dalton Kincaid and Josh Palmer missed.

Kelce has led the Chiefs in receiving each of the last two weeks, but the Bills have held Kelce to just 27 total yards in their 2024 matchups. Previous, he had roasted the Bills defense with a pair of 100-yard games among other dominant performances, but the Bills would rather any other Chief beat them than the future Hall of Fame tight end.

Chiefs vs Bills Betting Lines

The Chiefs are slight road favorites with the total set at 52.5 in the current NFL odds. Over bettors can take over 52.5 at FanDuel for -108 odds. Under bettors can get under 52.5 on ESPNBet for -105 odds.

Kansas City bettors can get the Chiefs on the spread at -1.5 on Underdog for -110 odds or -130 on the moneyline at BetMGM. For Buffalo bettors, take the Bills at +2.5 at DraftKings (-115 odds) or +112 odds at FanDuel on the moneyline.

KC vs BUF: Last Five Matchups

*Playoff game.

The Bills hold the lifetime edge 30-26-1 over the Chiefs. However, the Chiefs have won five of seven playoff games – including wins in four of the last five seasons. In this heated rivalry, the Bills have won the last four regular-season games while the Chiefs have won the last four playoff games.

In last season’s AFC Championship Game, Kansas City won 32-29, recovering from a fourth-quarter deficit. Patrick Mahomes scored three total touchdowns and had 288 yards. Josh Allen countered with two passing touchdowns and 276 total yards.