- Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the +450 favorite to lead the NFL in passing yardage during the 2020 season
- Drew Brees, the previous favorite, saw his odds jump from +500 to +2500. Is he worth a look at that price?
- Analysis of odds on all the top contenders, plus a look at some value bets are revealed below
Is 2020 going to be the NFL season in which the passing of the torch to Patrick Mahomes is complete?
Mahomes landed himself a Super Bowl ring last season. He led the Kansas City Chiefs to their first title in the big game since 1970. In 2018, Mahomes topped the league with 50 touchdown passes.
There’s just one major quarterbacking accomplishment left for Mahomes to achieve. He’s never been the NFL leader in passing yardage. But the oddsmakers are of the opinion that this could be the year to stand with Pat.
In the latest line, Mahomes is now the +450 chalk to be the 2020 NFL passing-yardage leader. He was originally the second betting choice at +600.
Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints opened as the +500 favorite to earn this title. Brees saw his odds plummet, though. He’s now listed with a betting line of +2500.
The QB who led the NFL in passing yardage last season – Jameis Winston – will back up Brees this season with the Saints.
Odds to Lead NFL in Passing Yardage for 2020 Season
Odds taken June 16th
Brees has led or shared the NFL lead in passing yards seven times. No Chiefs QB has ever topped the league in passing yardage.
Mahomes Makes Mark
Despite missing two games last season through injury, Mahomes was still 10th in the NFL with 4,031 yards. He was seventh overall in the league, averaging 287.9 yards per game. His 318.6 YPG average in 2018 was second-best in the league.
Mahomes on why he asked for the Chiefs to draft Clyde Edwards-Helaire: pic.twitter.com/LWFByijifM
— CHIEFS HIGHLIGHTS (@ChiefsHighlight) June 10, 2020
The problem for Mahomes is simply that the Chiefs win too many games too easily. There’s no incentive or reason to keep flinging it when KC is running away from an opponent.
The addition of first-round draft pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire to the Chiefs’ backfield should beef up their running game as well. That’s another reason to suspect Mahomes won’t need to air it out as much.
Brees-ing on By
Maybe it was the facts that put the brakes on Brees for passing leader. Or perhaps it’s simply that people figured it would be hard to pass with his foot in his mouth.
Brees was lambasted after he made ignorant comments about why black NFL players were kneeling during the anthem despite the past three weeks of demonstrations in America. He said he still viewed it as disrespecting the flag when in fact it’s a statement against police brutality.
No QB in NFL history has passed for a 70%+ cmp% in a season more than once…. besides Drew Brees who has done it 6 times. No QB in NFL history has passed for 5000+ yards in a season more than once…. besides Drew Brees who has done it 5 times.
— w (@saintsfan9432) June 11, 2020
He rapidly back-pedalled and apologized when the heat came from fellow NFLers and Saints teammates.
On top of that, Brees hasn’t passed for 4,000 yards since 2017. He missed five games last season. And he’s in his 40s.
Matty Icing It
The QB to watch in the NFC South isn’t named Brees, or even Tom Brady. If someone from this division is going to lead the NFL in passing, it’s Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons.
Most games with 300+ passing yards in last two seasons
Matt Ryan – 19
Patrick Mahomes – 17
Jameis Winston – 16
Jared Goff – 14 pic.twitter.com/e2pXefOfyI
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 11, 2020
Ryan will need to pass a lot because Atlanta figures to be behind a lot. Amazingly, he’s never earned this honor.
Don’t Be Passing on Dak
You know who finished just 207 yards behind Winston in the passing yardage race last season? Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys did.
It’s Dak Prescott Hours. Leave a like for Dak & the Dallas Cowboys 2020 Revenge Tour 😈🔥 pic.twitter.com/z5r2fCIl9N
— 𝙅𝙖𝙢𝙞𝙪𝙨 ⁴ ✭ (@PeakPrescott) June 14, 2020
You know who’s seeking a big-ticket contract? Dak is. And Dallas went out and got him CeeDee Lamb to go with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup.
Pick: Dak Prescott (+800).
Let's have fun and keep it civil.