Mahomes Becomes Heavier NFL MVP Favorite After Strong Week 1

• Patrick Mahomes finished with 375 yards passing and three touchdowns in Week 1.
• Tom Brady had 341 passing yards with three touchdowns in Week 1 but had just five 300-yard passing games last season.
• Carson Wentz could be a good value play at +1200.

After an impressive Week 1 where Patrick Mahomes threw for over 300 yards in the first half, his NFL MVP odds have shortened from +470 down to the +350 to +300 range. Is Mahomes a good bet to win the NFL’s MVP award for a second year in a row at this point or is this a bit of an overreaction?

2020 NFL MVP Odds

*Odds taken 09/11/19

Mahomes Shreds Jaguars Defense

Many people felt that the Jacksonville Jaguars defense would be among the elite units this season. While that could still be true, they were picked apart by Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1. Mahomes had multiple passes of 40+ yards while finishing the day 28-of-33 for 375 yards and three touchdowns.

However, at this point, I’m not that excited about betting Mahomes – especially since he’s an even bigger favorite at this point. The Chiefs have a tough upcoming schedule as they’ll visit an improved Oakland Raiders team next week, host Baltimore, then face Denver, Green Bay, Minnesota and Tennessee. All teams with decent defenses.

Those are all games the Chiefs will play Week 10 or sooner. That being the case, I don’t see this being a cakewalk for him – especially with Tyreek Hill now out over that period of time. Mahomes could win the award but I think at this point, you’re buying the stock at its highest price.

Value With Wentz?

One player I do like on the board is Carson Wentz, who was in the midst of an MVP-caliber campaign two years ago before injuries derailed his 2017 and 2018 seasons. Wentz looked back in that form on Sunday.

After a slow start in the first half, he finished the day 28-of-39 for 313 yards and three touchdowns.

The Eagles do have some good running backs to share the offensive burden – they combined for 26 carries and 116 yards – but this still remains a pass-first offense. With weapons like Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor, Wentz has a talented core to play with.

As the season progresses, I expect Wentz to continue to climb in terms of the NFL MVP futures. Now is a good time to buy in.

Pass On Tom Brady

There a lot of people excited about the prospects of Brady winning the MVP award this season but I just don’t see it. He had a huge first game against the Pittsburgh Steelers and he is about to get Antonio Brown into the lineup, but I don’t see him as a player who’ll have the monster stats necessary.

Brady had just five 300+ yard passing games last season while throwing for 29 touchdowns. That won’t be good enough this year. On top of that, the Patriots care more about postseason accomplishments rather than regular season achievements. They’ll manage Brady’s load a little bit by running and keep him fresh.

What’s The Best Bet?

After watching Week 1, I do think Mahomes will be in the running for the award but he’s got a number of good defenses coming up and you’re essentially buying in at a high. As for Brady, who is second in line, I’d pass on him too. I like Wentz at this point as he looks like he could be back in the MVP race this season. At +1200, I’m willing to take a shot.