Mahomes Still Given Best Odds to Win NFL MVP After Week 11
- Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ NFL MVP odds have improved to -120, making him the odds-on favorite
- After being favored during a majority of the season, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is now the second choice
- Below is a look at Mahomes and Wilson and an analysis of their MVP candidacies
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Pat Mahomes is now the odds-on favorite to win NFL MVP following his last-minute heroics Sunday night.
Mahomes is a -120 choice to capture the award for the second time in three years. He bolstered his NFL MVP odds by rallying the Chiefs to a 35-31 road victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.
2020 NFL MVP Odds
Player | Odds |
---|---|
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | -120 |
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) | +350 |
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) | +500 |
Kyler Murray (Cardinals) | +1400 |
Josh Allen (Bills) | +2000 |
Tom Brady (Buccaneers) | +2000 |
Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) | +2000 |
Odds taken Nov. 23 from FanDuel
Prior to Week 11, Mahomes was also the favorite but at odds of +179.
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson remains the second choice. However, his odds went from +245 to +350 despite leading his team to a 28-21 victory over the Arizona Cardinals at home on Thursday night in a pivotal NFC West game.
Mahomes Mr. Clutch
Mahomes’ threw a 22-yard pass to Travis Kelce for the winning touchdown with 28 seconds to play Sunday night.
MARCHED RIGHT DOWN THE FIELD ⏰
📺: @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/5yyRhYGx7B
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 23, 2020
That enabled the Chiefs to avenge their lone loss since October 2019. The Raiders beat the Chiefs 40-32 at Kansas City this season in Week 5.
After the Raiders went ahead 31-28 on a touchdown with 1:43 left, Mahomes drove the Chiefs 75 yards in 75 seconds for the winning score. He completed six of seven passes on the drive.
Mahomes also guided the Chiefs on a 91-yard TD march after the Raiders pulled in front 24-21 on the first play of the fourth quarter.
Mahomes finished 34-of-45 passing for 348 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. It was just his second pick of the season in 374 attempts against 27 TDs.
Wilson Bounces Back
Wilson was basically flawless in the win over the Cardinals.
He completed 23 of 28 passes for 197 yards and two touchdowns. Most importantly, he had zero turnovers after having a combined 10 – seven interceptions, three lost fumbles — in the previous four games when the Seahawks went 1-3.
Wilson threw scoring strikes of 25 yards to DK Metcalf and 11 yards to Tyler Lockett. However, for one of the few times this season, Wilson had some help from his teammates.
Beautiful throw. Beautiful catch.
That's just classic @DangeRussWilson and @TDLockett12. 🙌
Watch #AZvsSEA on FOX. pic.twitter.com/JpoCF7nXId
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) November 20, 2020
The Seahawks defense allowed a season-low 314 yards, including just 57 on the ground. Seattle entered the game last in the NFL in total defense while the Cardinals led the league in rushing offense.
Seattle was also able to establish a running game as its 155 yards was its second-best total of the season. Carlos Hyde led the way with 79 yards after missing the previous three games with a hamstring injury.
Comparing Season Stats
In addition to the 27 touchdowns and two interceptions, Mahomes has also posted some other gaudy statistics this season.
He is completing 67.9-percent of his passes and has 3,045 yards passing through 10 games. He is also averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.
Patrick Mahomes through 41 career starts:
NFL All-time rank
12,447 pass yds 1st
103 pass TD 1st
110.3 pass rating 1st@PatrickMahomes | #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/MgQe2bRUiU— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) November 23, 2020
Wilson has more TD passes with 30 but his 10 picks are five times more than Mahomes.
Wilson is completing passes at a 70.7-percent clip. He also has 2,986 yards in 10 games and his average of 8.2 yards an attempt is slightly better than Mahomes’ figure.
Of course, one of the biggest statistics to judge a quarterback on is wins.
Russell Wilson has the NFL record for most wins by a QB through first:
◽️ Two seasons – 24
◽️ Three seasons – 36
◽️ Four seasons – 46
◽️ Five seasons – 56 (T-Matt Ryan)
◽️ Six seasons – 65
◽️ Seven seasons – 75
◽️ Eight seasons- 86 (T-Tom Brady)
◽️ Nine seasons – 93Winner. pic.twitter.com/UaiPqWIdcZ
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) November 22, 2020
The Chiefs are 9-1 and hold a commanding three-game lead in the AFC West over the Raiders (6-4) with six games to play.
The Seahawks are 7-3 and took over sole possession of first place in the NFC West with Thursday’s win. The Los Angeles Rams are 6-3 and the Cardinals have a 6-4 record.
Looking for Value
Wilson was the favorite in the MVP race from the start of Week 3 until the Seahawks lost to the Rams in Week 10.
It is understandable why Wilson fell from the top spot, but it would be unwise to count him out.
Wilson carried a huge part of the load from the Seahawks this season until the Week 11 win over the Cardinals. If Seattle keeps playing like it did that night, Wilson represents good value with his odds up to +350.