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Mahomes Still Given Best Odds to Win NFL MVP After Week 11

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in NFL Football

Updated Mar 3, 2021 · 11:39 AM PST

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes passes during the second half of an NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons Sunday, Dec. 27, 2020, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
  • Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ NFL MVP odds have improved to -120, making him the odds-on favorite
  • After being favored during a majority of the season, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is now the second choice
  • Below is a look at Mahomes and Wilson and an analysis of their MVP candidacies

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Pat Mahomes is now the odds-on favorite to win NFL MVP following his last-minute heroics Sunday night.

Mahomes is a -120 choice to capture the award for the second time in three years. He bolstered his NFL MVP odds by rallying the Chiefs to a 35-31 road victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.

2020 NFL MVP Odds

Player Odds
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) -120
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) +350
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) +500
Kyler Murray (Cardinals) +1400
Josh Allen (Bills) +2000
Tom Brady (Buccaneers) +2000
Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) +2000

Odds taken Nov. 23 from FanDuel

Prior to Week 11, Mahomes was also the favorite but at odds of +179.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson remains the second choice. However, his odds went from +245 to +350 despite leading his team to a 28-21 victory over the Arizona Cardinals at home on Thursday night in a pivotal NFC West game.

Mahomes Mr. Clutch

Mahomes’ threw a 22-yard pass to Travis Kelce for the winning touchdown with 28 seconds to play Sunday night.

That enabled the Chiefs to avenge their lone loss since October 2019. The Raiders beat the Chiefs 40-32 at Kansas City this season in Week 5.

After the Raiders went ahead 31-28 on a touchdown with 1:43 left, Mahomes drove the Chiefs 75 yards in 75 seconds for the winning score. He completed six of seven passes on the drive.

Mahomes also guided the Chiefs on a 91-yard TD march after the Raiders pulled in front 24-21 on the first play of the fourth quarter.

Mahomes finished 34-of-45 passing for 348 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. It was just his second pick of the season in 374 attempts against 27 TDs.

Wilson Bounces Back

Wilson was basically flawless in the win over the Cardinals.

He completed 23 of 28 passes for 197 yards and two touchdowns. Most importantly, he had zero turnovers after having a combined 10 – seven interceptions, three lost fumbles — in the previous four games when the Seahawks went 1-3.

Wilson threw scoring strikes of 25 yards to DK Metcalf and 11 yards to Tyler Lockett. However, for one of the few times this season, Wilson had some help from his teammates.

The Seahawks defense allowed a season-low 314 yards, including just 57 on the ground. Seattle entered the game last in the NFL in total defense while the Cardinals led the league in rushing offense.

Seattle was also able to establish a running game as its 155 yards was its second-best total of the season. Carlos Hyde led the way with 79 yards after missing the previous three games with a hamstring injury.

Comparing Season Stats

In addition to the 27 touchdowns and two interceptions, Mahomes has also posted some other gaudy statistics this season.

He is completing 67.9-percent of his passes and has 3,045 yards passing through 10 games. He is also averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.

Wilson has more TD passes with 30 but his 10 picks are five times more than Mahomes.

Wilson is completing passes at a 70.7-percent clip. He also has 2,986 yards in 10 games and his average of 8.2 yards an attempt is slightly better than Mahomes’ figure.

Of course, one of the biggest statistics to judge a quarterback on is wins.

The Chiefs are 9-1 and hold a commanding three-game lead in the AFC West over the Raiders (6-4) with six games to play.

The Seahawks are 7-3 and took over sole possession of first place in the NFC West with Thursday’s win. The Los Angeles Rams are 6-3 and the Cardinals have a 6-4 record.

Looking for Value

Wilson was the favorite in the MVP race from the start of Week 3 until the Seahawks lost to the Rams in Week 10.

It is understandable why Wilson fell from the top spot, but it would be unwise to count him out.

Wilson carried a huge part of the load from the Seahawks this season until the Week 11 win over the Cardinals. If Seattle keeps playing like it did that night, Wilson represents good value with his odds up to +350.

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