Dolphins vs Saints – Best Team and Player Prop Bets for MNF Week 16

• The Miami Dolphins (7-7) take on the New Orleans Saints (7-7) on Monday Night Football
• Week 15 Record: 1-5, -2.22 units; 2021 Record: 19-48, -10.52 units
• See the list of Dolphins vs Saints props for MNF from Caesars Superdome

Another week, another string of Covid cases taking over the NFL.

With the Miami Dolphins taking on the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football, the Saints will be significantly shorthanded. As of Sunday morning, New Orleans had 16 players on the Covid-19/reserve list. That includes both quarterbacks Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill, meaning rookie Ian Book makes his debut on Monday.

Now they get set to face the Dolphins, who have won seven-straight. Among the hottest teams in the NFL, Miami will look to make it eight in a row on Monday night from Caesars Superdome at 8:15 pm EST.

Dolphins vs Saints Props

Odds as of December 26th at DraftKings

*Indicates Pass + Rush Yards

The Dolphins are favored, but not by as much as you’d think against a team once again ravaged by Covid. The Dolphins vs Saints odds see the total at 37.5. That’s really where the debut of Ian Book is evident, as entering Sunday it was the only total available below 40. Miami was riding a 5-0 run ATS until last week, while the Saints are 2-0 following an 0-3 stretch.

Alvin Kamara: Dual Threat Back

When you talk about top-tier running backs in the NFL, Alvin Kamara’s name is always out there. And for good reason.

Whether it’s running between the tackles, bouncing it outside, or running routes, Kamara does it all at an elite level. Regardless of who’s at quarterback for the Saints, don’t expect that to change.

Kamara is also the rare runner who seems to be QB proof. In the two games he played with Hill under center, Kamara averaged 19 carries for 69 yards and three receptions for 19 yards. In Week 9 with Siemian at QB, Kamara ran 13 times for 50 yards, and caught four passes for 54 yards.

With Jameis Winston over the first eight weeks of the season, he averaged 19 carries for 68 yards and four catches for 36 yards per game.

Here’s Alvin Kamara talking earlier this season about being the Saints’ emergency quarterback:

pic.twitter.com/bhZQP5SotX

— Amie Just (@Amie_Just) December 23, 2021

In 10 games, Kamara has recorded 25+ receiving yards six times.

Now the Dolphins have defended receiving backs well this season. Miami has allowed the ninth-fewest yards and the 14th-fewest receptions.

While Notre Dames’ running backs weren’t a huge part of the receiving game overall in 2020, Book was still able to hit Kyren Williams 35 times for 313 yards in 12 games. That works out to just over three catches and 26 yards a game.

Expect the Saints to give Book an effective game plan that he can execute on short notice. And expect it to feature Kamara.

• The Pick: Alvin Kamara OVER 22.5 receiving yards (-120); 1 unit

The Evolution of Tua Tagovailoa

Five of Miami’s six wins on this streak have come with Tua Tagovailoa under center. It’s also led to a shift in the perception of whether or not Tagovailoa is a bona-fide QB1.

Whether you think the stats match up with the assessment or not, Tua’s been getting the job done.

Removing the win against Baltimore in which Tagovailoa didn’t start, he’s completing passes at a 75% clip. He’s thrown seven touchdowns to three interceptions, and has a QB rating of 103.2.

But he’s averaged just 235.8 yards per start over that stretch, which matches the line.

Highest career 4th Qtr Passer Rating, among active players who have started this season

Tua Tagovailoa 108.7
Patrick Mahomes 108.3
Russell Wilson 104.9
Josh Allen 104.6
Aaron Rodgers 102.5 pic.twitter.com/D4bvcFXRKg

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 24, 2021

In his first start, Tua threw for 273 yards. He went over 236 one other time, and finished under twice. In his first four full starts of the season, it was another equal 50/50 split.

While Covid has thrown a wrench in the Saints’ plans, the Saints have allowed just two QBs to finish with more than 240 yards since the start of November.

Even if the Dolphins can force Book into a few mistakes and get a few extra possessions, they’ll probably grind New Orleans down in a multitude of ways.

• The Pick: Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 233.5 passing yards (-115); 1 unit

Dolphins vs Saints Scoring Props

Odds as of December 26th at DraftKings

Due to the expected nature of this game, there are some longer than normal odds on the board. That’s because the total is sitting at 37.5.

With it being Book’s NFL debut, it’s tough to expect a fast start from the Saints’ offense. While you can almost consider getting Kamara at -110 as a bargain,  it’s unlikely he hits that +550 as the opening scorer.

Awesome throw from Tua to Parkerpic.twitter.com/FTnosuWGqH

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 19, 2021

New Orleans defends the tight end position fairly well, so while Mike Gesicki at +1200 and +260 is nice, it’s unlikely. And while it could be temping to back a running back, the question with the Dolphins is which one? Fantasy players can tell you the running game for Miami has been anything but predictable in 2021.

The Saints don’t get shredded by receivers either, but Tua Tagovailoa has thrown multiple TDs in three of his last four games.

DeVante Parker has seen a healthy amount of targets since returning in Week 13, and scored in Week 15. It’s also been a while since Tua took one in himself, so he may have something in store for the Saints on the ground.

• The Pick: DeVante Parker scores FIRST touchdown (+1200); 0.5 units
• The Pick: DeVante Parker (+260), Tua Tagovailoa (+500) and Alvin Kamara (-110) to score ANYTIME; 0.5 units each