New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers – Odds, Picks and Best Bets for Week 4
- The New England Patriots visit the Green Bay Packers in Week 4
- Mac Jones won’t play due to an ankle injury
- See the Patriots vs Packers picks and odds ahead of their Week 4 clash, and our pick below
The Green Bay Packers seem like they might be on the verge of putting it together.
The New England Patriots are trying to keep things from falling apart.
Two teams with different trajectories will clash Sunday, with the home-side Pack a massive 9-point favorite over the Patriots. New England will be without starting quarterback Mac Jones, who suffered an ankle injury in a Week 3 loss to Baltimore.
It gets underway Sunday at 4:25pm ET from Lambeau Field, in a game that can be seen live on CBS.
Patriots vs Packers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | +360 | +9 (-112) | Ov 40 (-109) |
| Green Bay Packers | -480 | -9 (-109) | Un 40 (-112) |
Odds as of October 1st from Barstool Sporstbook.
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Checking the NFL Betting Trends, the oddsmakers might have found the sweet spot with this line, as just 55% of the bets against the spread are going to the Packers, while a whopping 91% are placing their wagers on the Green Bay moneyline.
The total is split, with 52% laying bets on the over.
Weather shouldn’t be a factor in Wisconsin, with clear, sunny skies and a high of 68 degrees at kickoff.
New England Betting Outlook
There’s grim, and then there’s Brian Hoyer starting-QB grim.
After Mac Jones was ruled out of this game (and potentially weeks more), the Patriots are turning the controls over to the 36-year-old, who hasn’t been all that effective when he’s gotten the call.
Brian Hoyer didn't play much last season, but when he did, he wasn't afraid to attack downfield. Averaged 20.6 yards per attempt (!) across his five garbage-time appearances.
Wonder if we'll see Bombs Away Hoyer at all on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/S0yFv15Fpg
— Zack Cox (@ZackCoxNESN) September 29, 2022
Hoyer is currently riding an 11-game losing streak as starter, which is currently the longest streak going in the NFL. This will be his 40th career start over his 14-year career.
You can expect a healthy dose of running the ball, which is probably the one way they can keep this game close. The duo of Damien Harris (160 yards, 2 TD) and Rhamondre Stevenson (145 yards, 1 TD) are each averaging over 4.6 yards per carry.
They’re just outside the top-10 in rush yards, but their rushing DVOA ranks first in the league.
Damien Harris barrels in for the TD! We take the lead! 💪pic.twitter.com/MuBQU3NTXv
— Patriots Nation (@PatsNationCP) September 25, 2022
If, as expected, the Packers focus on the run game, perhaps Hoyer can find some relief in DeVante Parker. The ex-Dolphin had his best outing with the Patriots against the Ravens, hauling in five ball for 156 yards.
Defensively, the Pats have some disruptors that could hamper Green Bay’s passing game. They’re one of seven teams in the NFL with double-digit sacks. Deatrich Wise is coming off a 3-sack game against the Ravens. Matt Judon has three sacks on the year.
Green Bay Betting Outlook
As expected, Aaron Rodgers has helped guide the Pack out of that ugly opening-game loss to the Vikings, but they’re very much a work in progress.
After a convincing 27-10 win over the Bears in Week 2, the Pack gutted out a 14-12 win at Tampa Bay, holding on a 2-point attempt late in the fourth quarter to beat the Buccaneers.
Romeo Doubs 🫡
• 8 targets
• 8 catches
• 73 yards
• 1 TD @RomeoDoubs | #GoPackGo— GBP Daily (@GBPdaily) September 26, 2022
Rodgers engineered two TD drives on the Pack’s first two possessions, but they couldn’t muster any more offense the rest of the game.
The two-headed running back couldn’t get it going against Tampa, as Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon could only muster a combined 68 yards on 24 carries. Jones also coughed up a ball at the goal line.
This is insane: 350-pound NT Vita Vea *drops into coverage* and forces an Aaron Jones fumble on the 1-yard line to prevent a TD. Elite athlete.
(🎥: @NFL) pic.twitter.com/bNV3sCW0RV
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 25, 2022
While Mac Jones is the most significant loss for either team, Green Bay is still trying to get healthy.
On the offensive line, Caleb Jones (illness) has been ruled out. David Bakhtiari is likely still on a snap count as he works his way back from a knee injury.
Receivers Allen Lazard (ankle) and Christian Watson (hamstring) are both dinged up but off the injured list, while Sammy Watkins (hamstring) will miss a second straight game and more after he was placed on injured reserve.
Patriots vs Packers Pick
Green Bay’s run defense has not been good so far this year, currently ranking last in rushing DVOA. They do have playmakers across their front seven, though, and Kenny Clark will be tasked with stopping the run game inside.
He and Preston Smith both have two sacks on the year.
Ultimately, though, the loss of Jones is going to be a bit too much for the Patriots to overcome, even with the struggles of a Packers’ offense that has put up just 16 points per game this season.
The Patriots are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five games, while Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in their last nine after scoring less than 15 points their previous game.
I don’t think Green Bay fixes all their offensive ills, but they should win going away.
The Pick:
- Packers -9 (-109); 1 unit to win 0.91 units
- Week 3 record: 1-2; Overall: 2-4 ATS, 1-0 O/U, -4.67 units
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Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
