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New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Odds, Spread, Picks, and Predictions

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Sep 10, 2022 · 6:00 AM PDT

Tua Tagovailoa motions; Miami Dolphins
Aug 20, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) directs his offense against the Las Vegas Raiders Las Vegas Raiders during the first quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Patriots and Dolphins kick off the 2022 NFL Regular Season at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday
  • New England is 2-7 over their last nine games in Miami, losing by an average of 7.5 points
  • See the Patriots vs Dolphins picks and odds ahead of their game on Sunday afternoon at 1:00 pm ET

For Dolphins fans, it probably feels like they’ve been waiting for Sunday afternoon for forever.

Yes, it’s the kickoff of the 2022 regular season at 1:00 pm ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. And sure they’re facing the Patriots, who remain hated rivals even though Tom Brady is long gone. But there’s more to it than that.

They finally get to see Tyreek Hill in action, catching passes from Tua Tagovailoa alongside Jaylen Waddle.

Patriots vs Dolphins Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
New England Patriots +150 +3.5 (-110) Ov 46 (-110)
Miami Dolphins -186 -3.5 (-110) Un 46 (-110)

Odds as of September 10th from Barstool Sporstbook

Unsurprisingly, the Dolphins opened as a home favorite, with the spread at 3.5. The Pats are getting a significant amount of public action in the public betting trends on the handle both ATS and outright, despite the difference in offensive firepower.



A hot, muggy afternoon with the risk of thunderstorms had the total riding consistently at 46.5. Public money has shaved half a point off of it heading into the weekend.

Questions Surround Patriots Offense

The last time we saw the Patriots, they were getting laughed off the field by the Buffalo Bills in a lopsided 47-17 playoff loss. That invited a lot of questions about the offense and then-rookie QB Mac Jones.

But, if anything, Bill Belichick’s off-season has only invited more questions.

Both Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor are still with the team, eyeing bigger roles this season. The team acquired DeVante Parker from the Dolphins in early April, adding another weapon for their sophomore pivot.

But instead of replacing offensive guru Josh McDaniels with an up-and-comer at Offensive Coordinator, Belichick is electing to do it with…Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. One’s specialty lies with the defense, the other’s with Special Teams.

New England’s offense averaged 224 passing yards, 94 rushing yards, and 15.6 points per game in the preseason. While that will undoubtedly change when it’s starters vs starters, it still isn’t a great omen.


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Patriots vs Dolphins Injury Report

Training camp and preseason injuries aside, this is the healthiest these two teams will be all year. After Sunday, the injuries will start to mount as they do every year.

And the Week 1 injury report reflects that.

Week 1 Injury Report

Patriots Injury, Status Dolphins Injury, Status
Josh Bledsoe, S Groin, Questionable Salvon Ahmen, RB Heel, Questionable
Jakobi Meyers, WR Knee, Questionable Tanner Conner, TE Knee, Questionable
Ty Montgomery, WR Knee, Questionable Raekwon Davis, DT Knee, Questionable
Isaiah Wynn, T Back, Questionable Eric Rowe, S Pectoral, Questionable
Shaun Wade, CB Ankle, Questionable Andrew Van Ginkel, LB Illness, Questionable

Miami got the best injury news they could hope for mid-week when Jaylen Waddle and Chase Edmonds practiced in full. Neither Edmonds’ groin injury or Waddle’s quad will be an issue come Sunday.

While Montgomery carries a lot of intrigue as a James White replacement, the key injuries for New England are Meyers and Wynn. Meyers is the most consistent wide receiver the Pats have, and is a key to the offense. Wynn confirmed that he’ll be playing during media availability on Friday afternoon.

Patriots vs Dolphins: Last Five Games

Date Away Team Home Team Final Score Line O/U
Dec  29. 2019 Miami Dolphins New England Patriots MIA 27-24 NE -17.5 46.0 (OVER)
Sept  13, 2020 Miami Dolphins New England Patriots NE 21-11 NE -7.5 41.5 (UNDER)
Dec 12, 2020 New England Patriots Miami Dolphins MIA 22-12 NE -1.5 40.5 (UNDER)
Sept 12, 2021 Miami Dolphins New England Patriots MIA 17-16 NE -3.5 43.5 (UNDER)
Jan 9, 2022 New England Patriots Miami Dolphins  MIA 33-24 NE -6.0 40.0 (OVER)

The post-Tom Brady era has not been kind to the Patriots in a lot of ways, but their results against Miami have been some of the cruelest. Even when Brady was under center though, the Pats have struggled in Miami.

New England is 1-3 since Cam Newton and Mac Jones took over, despite being the favorite in all four contests. Offense hasn’t been the strong point in these games either. The over hit just once, coming in the 2021 season finale.

Patriots vs Dolphins Pick

At this point, it’s very hard to trust the New England Patriots’ offense.

If Josh McDaniels were still leading the way, you could argue that maybe they played possum a little bit in the preseason. But the Patriots’ offensive coaching staff is essentially rookies working with a second-year QB.

There will be a big adjustment period in New England in 2022, and bettors are right to be skeptical. They won’t hold up their end of the bargain in Week 1. If you’re betting on this game, be sure to claim this exclusive Barstool Sportsbook promo code when making your Patriots vs Dolphins picks.

The Pick: UNDER 46 (-110); 1 Unit

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