New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Odds, Spread, Picks, and Predictions
By Bryan Thiel in NFL News
Published:
- The Patriots and Dolphins kick off the 2022 NFL Regular Season at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday
- New England is 2-7 over their last nine games in Miami, losing by an average of 7.5 points
- See the Patriots vs Dolphins picks and odds ahead of their game on Sunday afternoon at 1:00 pm ET
For Dolphins fans, it probably feels like they’ve been waiting for Sunday afternoon for forever.
Yes, it’s the kickoff of the 2022 regular season at 1:00 pm ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. And sure they’re facing the Patriots, who remain hated rivals even though Tom Brady is long gone. But there’s more to it than that.
They finally get to see Tyreek Hill in action, catching passes from Tua Tagovailoa alongside Jaylen Waddle.
Patriots vs Dolphins Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | +150 | +3.5 (-110) | Ov 46 (-110) |
| Miami Dolphins | -186 | -3.5 (-110) | Un 46 (-110) |
Odds as of September 10th from Barstool Sporstbook
Unsurprisingly, the Dolphins opened as a home favorite, with the spread at 3.5. The Pats are getting a significant amount of public action in the public betting trends on the handle both ATS and outright, despite the difference in offensive firepower.
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A hot, muggy afternoon with the risk of thunderstorms had the total riding consistently at 46.5. Public money has shaved half a point off of it heading into the weekend.
Questions Surround Patriots Offense
The last time we saw the Patriots, they were getting laughed off the field by the Buffalo Bills in a lopsided 47-17 playoff loss. That invited a lot of questions about the offense and then-rookie QB Mac Jones.
But, if anything, Bill Belichick’s off-season has only invited more questions.
Both Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor are still with the team, eyeing bigger roles this season. The team acquired DeVante Parker from the Dolphins in early April, adding another weapon for their sophomore pivot.
.@PhilAPerry and @AlbertBreer breakdown what fans may see from the #Patriots offense on Sunday that we haven't seen during the preseason 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/coMpL2KX7i
— NBC Sports Boston's Patriots Coverage (@NBCSPatriots) September 8, 2022
But instead of replacing offensive guru Josh McDaniels with an up-and-comer at Offensive Coordinator, Belichick is electing to do it with…Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. One’s specialty lies with the defense, the other’s with Special Teams.
New England’s offense averaged 224 passing yards, 94 rushing yards, and 15.6 points per game in the preseason. While that will undoubtedly change when it’s starters vs starters, it still isn’t a great omen.
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Patriots vs Dolphins Injury Report
Training camp and preseason injuries aside, this is the healthiest these two teams will be all year. After Sunday, the injuries will start to mount as they do every year.
And the Week 1 injury report reflects that.
Week 1 Injury Report
| Patriots | Injury, Status | Dolphins | Injury, Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bledsoe, S | Groin, Questionable | Salvon Ahmen, RB | Heel, Questionable |
| Jakobi Meyers, WR | Knee, Questionable | Tanner Conner, TE | Knee, Questionable |
| Ty Montgomery, WR | Knee, Questionable | Raekwon Davis, DT | Knee, Questionable |
| Isaiah Wynn, T | Back, Questionable | Eric Rowe, S | Pectoral, Questionable |
| Shaun Wade, CB | Ankle, Questionable | Andrew Van Ginkel, LB | Illness, Questionable |
Miami got the best injury news they could hope for mid-week when Jaylen Waddle and Chase Edmonds practiced in full. Neither Edmonds’ groin injury or Waddle’s quad will be an issue come Sunday.
#Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle (quad), RB Chase Edmonds (groin) and RB Myles Gaskin (neck) were upgraded to full participants in Thursday’s practice. Good sign for them before Sunday’s opener vs. #Patriots.
— Safid Deen 💯💯💯💯 (@Safid_Deen) September 8, 2022
While Montgomery carries a lot of intrigue as a James White replacement, the key injuries for New England are Meyers and Wynn. Meyers is the most consistent wide receiver the Pats have, and is a key to the offense. Wynn confirmed that he’ll be playing during media availability on Friday afternoon.
Patriots vs Dolphins: Last Five Games
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Final Score | Line | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29. 2019 | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | MIA 27-24 | NE -17.5 | 46.0 (OVER) |
| Sept 13, 2020 | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | NE 21-11 | NE -7.5 | 41.5 (UNDER) |
| Dec 12, 2020 | New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins | MIA 22-12 | NE -1.5 | 40.5 (UNDER) |
| Sept 12, 2021 | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | MIA 17-16 | NE -3.5 | 43.5 (UNDER) |
| Jan 9, 2022 | New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins | MIA 33-24 | NE -6.0 | 40.0 (OVER) |
The post-Tom Brady era has not been kind to the Patriots in a lot of ways, but their results against Miami have been some of the cruelest. Even when Brady was under center though, the Pats have struggled in Miami.
New England is 1-3 since Cam Newton and Mac Jones took over, despite being the favorite in all four contests. Offense hasn’t been the strong point in these games either. The over hit just once, coming in the 2021 season finale.
Patriots vs Dolphins Pick
At this point, it’s very hard to trust the New England Patriots’ offense.
If Josh McDaniels were still leading the way, you could argue that maybe they played possum a little bit in the preseason. But the Patriots’ offensive coaching staff is essentially rookies working with a second-year QB.
There will be a big adjustment period in New England in 2022, and bettors are right to be skeptical. They won’t hold up their end of the bargain in Week 1. If you’re betting on this game, be sure to claim this exclusive Barstool Sportsbook promo code when making your Patriots vs Dolphins picks.
The Pick: UNDER 46 (-110); 1 Unit
Sports Writer
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
