NFL Week 17 Upsets and Underdog Picks

• Division rivalries dominate the bet bets to pull off the upset in NFL Week 17
• Houston has won nine straight over Jacksonville, while the Steelers have won four of five in Baltimore
• Read on for all the odds and trends heading into the penultimate week of the NFL season

Division rivalries highlight the rundown of best bets to pull off the upset in NFL Week 17.

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter the penultimate week of the regular season locked in a battle for the AFC South title, but nothing is on the line in their date with the archnemesis Houston Texans.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled while losing three of their past five and will have their hands full in their date with the resurgent Carolina Panthers, while the injury-plagued Baltimore Ravens face the challenge of reversing their historical woes when hosting Pittsburgh when they face the Steelers.

Here’s a look at our top picks to produce as underdogs in NFL Week 17.

NFL Week 17 Upset Picks

Odds as of December 31 at Caesars Sportsbook.

NFL Week 17 upset picks: Texans Poised to Extend Win Streak Over Jags?

The Jacksonville Jaguars have put themselves in control of their own playoff destiny during the current 5-2 SU run that has lifted them to the top of the AFC South standings. Indeed, the Jaguars’ resurgence has coincided with a breakthrough by second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has strengthened his bid to be included in the NFL elite passer conversation while tossing for 13 touchdowns over the past six games.

Jaguars vs Texans since 2018

❌ vs HOU (7-20)
❌ at HOU (3-20)
❌ at HOU (12-13)
❌ vs HOU (3-26)
❌ at HOU (14-30)
❌ vs HOU (25-27)
❌ at HOU (21-37)
❌ vs HOU (16-30)
❌ vs HOU (6-13)
🤔 at HOU (This Sunday)

Jaguars have lost nine straight and 15 of the last 17 against HOU

— René Bugner (@RNBWCV) December 30, 2022

However, the result of Sunday’s date in Houston has no bearing on who will win the AFC South race, which will ultimately be decided next week when the Jaguars host the slumping Tennessee Titans. In addition, Lawrence is dealing with a nagging toe injury that has left him listed as questionable, raising the possibility that he and other Jaguars’ regulars could enjoy a lighter workload against a Texans squad that has defeated them in nine straight outings.

Add to that the recent impressive play by the Texans against formidable opponents, capped by last weekend’s comeback victory over the Titans. It then becomes very tough to get behind the Jaguars as 4-point favorites in the NFL odds in a contest that ultimately means far more to the Texans and their long-suffering fans.

Panthers Finding Their Groove in Late-Season Surge

It took almost three months, but the Carolina Panthers have finally shaken off a dismal 2-7 start to their season with a 4-2 run that has put them within reach of the NFC South title. The Panthers took a huge leap forward with a magnificent ground game performance last week against Detroit, piling up 320 yards and three scoring runs in a stunning 37-23 rout of the previously red-hot Detroit Lions.

Stat I never thought I would see:

A team led by Tom Brady is an NFL-worst 3-11-1 ATS.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games

— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) December 27, 2022

Despite that performance, the Panthers travel to Tampa Bay pegged as 4-point underdogs against a Buccaneers squad that continues to appeal to sports bettors despite emerging as a consistently bad bet, covering just once in their past 13 outings.

The Buccaneers were lucky to escape with a 17-16 win in Arizona on Christmas Day, and have averaged fewer than 17 points over their past 10 games. Hobbled by injuries that have impacted both their offensive line and secondary, the Buccaneers face a huge challenge to contain the Panthers’ ground game. They averaged 169.5 yards and recorded eight scoring runs over their past six games with passer Sam Darnold key to last week’s lopsided win.

Steel Curtain Set to Drop on Ravens

There will be no shortage of motivation on either side of the gridiron when the Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers as 2-point favorites on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens have already clinched a playoff spot and remain in striking distance of the AFC North-leading Cincinnati Bengals, while the Steelers need a victory to preserve their faint playoff hopes.

However, with Lamar Jackson still sidelined by injury, and the team averaging fewer than 12 points per game in their four outings without him, the Ravens are far from a lock against the archrival Steelers who have earned the SU win in four of their past five trips to Baltimore.

Unlike the Ravens, the Steelers look to Sunday in good health. In addition to Jackson, Baltimore is looking unlikely to have cornerback Marcus Peters and edge Calais Campbell in the lineup.

That opens the door for Steelers rookie pivot Kenny Pickett take to a small step forward. This may be all the Steelers need to extend their road dominance over Baltimore in what is shaping up to be a low-scoring affair.

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