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NFL Week 6 ATS Picks: Can Cowboys Beat Up on Lowly Jets?

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 23, 2020 · 7:08 AM PDT

Zeke
Ezekiel Elliott (far right) and the Cowboys are in New York trying to break a two-game losing streak with a win over the Jets. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr)
  • Cowboys trying to break two-game skid against lowly Jets
  • Russell Wilson takes MVP-caliber play to Cleveland against Browns
  • ATS Week 5 Record: 1-3; Overall 2019 Record: 8-12

It’s been a bumpy couple of weeks. I’d like to take this opportunity to thank the LA Chargers for being as trusty as a pet rattlesnake, and Danny Dimes for crashing back to earth (which carried over into Week 6 too), and the Bears for leaving their defense at customs as they got run over in London by the Raiders.  At least the Patriots keep doing Patriot things.

That was the only bright spot in a disaster of a week, but let’s turn the corner on this speed bump. There are some tasty selections in Week 6, and we begin with America’s team, who, like myself are trying to find their footing after after a shaky run.

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets

Team Spread
Dallas Cowboys -7 (-109)
New York Jets +7 (-109)

*Odds from 11/10/19

Analysis: Sure, the Cowboys haven’t looked great as of late, scoring 10 points in a loss to New Orleans, and getting overwhelmed by the Packers in a 34-24 loss, but how is this line just seven points? This matchup pits the statistical best offense in the NFL against the league’s worst.

Since blowing a 16-point second half lead to the Bills, the lowest the margin of defeat for the 0-4 Gang Green is 16 points – and that was only due to the kindness of the Patriots, who surrendered a special teams TD and pick-six to make a 30-0 whitewash look somewhat respectable.

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Meanwhile, the Cowboys have feasted on the weak so far this year, crushing the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins and scoring at least 31 in each win.

Sam Darnold is back, which, even in recovery mode from mono is still better than anything Luke Falk accomplished while at the helm.

Dallas should have this with points to spare. Expect Zeke Elliott to also see his workload increase from last week. Down by 17 at the half, Dallas had to scrap much of the run game, leaving Elliott just 12 carries for 62 yards against the Pack.

Pick: Cowboys -7 (-109)

New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Team Spread
New Orleans Saints +1 (+101)
Jacksonville Jaguars -1 (-119)

Analysis: Squint hard enough, and you’ll see some sharp similarities between both sides. Each has a quarterback that they’re confident in, even with their more high-profile, more expensive incumbents forced to the sideline due to injury.

Gardner Minshew is the small sample real deal. He’s one of three QBs in the Super Bowl era with a 100-plus rating and no interceptions through his first four career starts. He also leads all rookies in TD passes (9) and QB rating (105.6). Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater has found his footing after a shaky relief stint in LA. He’s coming off his fifth career 300+ yard passing game and has a rating of better than 100 in two of his last three road starts.

They each have a go-to running game. New Orleans boasts the shifty and explosive Alvin Kamara, who’s gone for 100 or more scrimmage yards five times in his last seven outings. Jacksonville employs a bowling ball of a beast in Leonard Fournette, looking for his third straight 100-yard game on the ground.

Michael Thomas is perched atop the NFL in receptions and receiving yards, as expected, while DJ Chark leads the AFC in receiving yards and TD receptions.

Both have disruptive defenses, but while the Saints are steadily rising back the elite levels, the Jaguars’ defense ranks 24th overall, including 25th against the run. It’s the slightest of margins, but the Saints should be able to make more plays to pull this one out.

Pick: Saints +1 (-109) 

Seattle Seahawks vs Cleveland Browns

Team Spread
Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (-114)
Cleveland Browns +1.5 (-104)

Analysis: It’s no stretch to say that there are few pivots playing at the level of Russell Wilson right now. His team doesn’t have a domineering defense, his offensive line is improved but not upper echelon, and his receiving corps isn’t close to the talent that’s possessed by other teams, including the Browns receivers they’ll see in Week 6. But Wilson is masking all of that with his work in the pocket, boosting the Hawks to 4-1 in what looks like the baddest division in football.

Wilson is first QB in the Super Bowl era with 1,400 yards passing, 12 TDs and zero INTs in a team’s first five games. He’s had help of late too, as Chris Carson has also gone for 100+ in his last two starts. Seattle is known for its home field, but as of late, they’ve been getting it done on the road, riding a current 7-1 mark against the spread away from their cozy confines.

They’ll be getting a Browns squad that was ripped to shreds Monday night by the 49ers. Baker Mayfield is currently crumpling under the expectations of a spectacular rookie campaign. He leads the league in interceptions with eight, and hasn’t been able to sync up with the dynamic Odell Beckham Jr, who has just four catches for 47 yards in his last two games.

Perhaps the defense can chip in. They’re still sporting skid marks from all the tread the Niners’ backs were putting on them, gashing the Browns for 275 yards on the ground. Seattle will also have to work in a new guard, as DJ Fluker is out, perhaps a chance to get the pass rush going as well. Still, Wilson should prevail in this one.

Pick: Seahawks -1.5 (-114)

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

Team Spread
Houston Texans +4 (-109)
Kansas City Chiefs -4 (-109)

Analysis: Yes, the Indianapolis Colts did the unthinkable in Week 5, going into Arrowhead and putting the kryptonite to Patrick Mahomes and company. The Chiefs failed to score 25 points or more for the first time in Mahomes’ starting career (tough life, I know), and things don’t look too great right now, with an offensive line that is leaking. They may have allowed only seven sacks on the season, but four of those came in the Indy loss.

What’s worse is Mahomes may be compromised with a wonky ankle. His agility, paired with an absolute bazooka of an arm is unstoppable, but that lack of mobility forced him to be less inventive and more of a traditional pocket passer. While he was still effective, going 22-for-39 for 321 yards and a touchdown, the element that gets the offense into overdrive wasn’t there.

If he’s healthy, Mahomes should feast, as he leads the league’s top passing offense against the 25th-ranked pass defense of the Texans. But beware: Houston currently leads the NFL with a forced turnover in 18 straight games.

Across the field, there’s a terrific pivot spinning his own magic in Houston.

Deshaun Watson just finished hanging 53 on the Falcons, further adding to the theory that keeping Watson upright means more good than bad. This was just the second game in Watson’s career that he wasn’t sacked a single time.

While Watson will always be ready to spin, the strategy should be to get ex-Chiefs castoff Carlos Hyde to run wild against the NFL’s 30th-ranked run defense.

This one will be a shootout, but the home team should cover.

Pick: Chiefs -4 (109)

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