Niners vs Seahawks Week 17 SNF Props: Wilson Rises To The Occasion

• With the Division on the line the 12-3 San Francisco 49ers head to Seattle to take on the the 11-4 Seahawks
• Will Russell Wilson be able to come through after the losses that have crippled the backfield?
• The struggles continued for me in Week 16, losing -4.12 units bringing my season total to -15.89 units

I took another one on the chin in Week 16. The Chiefs came out on top in their matchup with the Bears and the offense didn’t need to do much in a victory their underrated defense dominated.

Let’s hope for a little more fireworks in the final Sunday nighter of the year, with the NFC West on the line. The Seahawks won the first matchup between the division rivals back in Week 10 going into San Fran and coming out with a 27-24 overtime victory.

But things have changed, with Seattle losing their top three options in the backfield to season ending injuries leading to the resigning of Seahawk legend Marshawn Lynch. The Niners have went 4-2 since that Week 10 loss with tough losses against the Ravens and Falcons. However they have proven they have what it takes to contend with with wins in tight games against the Rams and Saints and a complete dismantling of the current NFC second-seed Green Bay Packers.

The final SNF matchup should be an exciting one. Let’s have a look at a few props I will be adding to the excitement with.

Prop #1: Deebo Samuel Over/Under 42.5 Receiving Yards

All odds taken Dec. 27

Second round pick Deebo Samuel has had a solid rookie campaign averaging 50 yards per game with a 68% catch rate. He has earned 76 targets on the year catching 52 of them for 700 yards and 3 tds adding 126 yards on the ground and two more scores. His playmaking ability and toughness have been on display all season long. All this on a team with the leagues 2nd best rushing attack.

The top 3 leaders in yards after catch per reception are all rookies…?

1. AJ Brown(8.6)
2. Noah Fant (8.3)
3. Deebo Samuel (8.1)

(Min. 50 targets)
Per @SportsInfo_SIS pic.twitter.com/pbAi2Iuc63

— Nathan Coleman (@JHawkChalk_) December 26, 2019

His 76 targets are second on the team trailing only superstar TE George Kittle. In the first matchup between the division foes in Week 10 Samuel posted 112 yards on eight receptions. Facing the league’s 26th-ranked pass defense look for QB Jimmy Garoppolo to once again look Samuel’s way early and often in an attempt to set the tone with his physical rookie.

Pick: Deebo Samuel over 42.5 receiving yards
Risk: 2 units to win 1.76 units

Prop #2: Player Stat Double: D.K. Metcalf

Taken later in the 2nd round than Samuel, fellow rookie WR D.K. Metcalf has matched his counterpart’s play-making ability all season long. Metcalf had a massive draft slide, lasting all the way to the 64th pick but he’s done nothing but prove the doubters wrong. This season, he’s put up 52 catches on 88 targets for 819 yards and sixTD’s, averaging 15.8 yards per catch.

Rookie Receiving leaders through Week 16

Receptions
1) Terry McLaurin 58
2) Diontae Johnson 55
3) DK Metcalf 52
4) Deebo Samuel 52
5) AJ Brown 48

Yards
1) AJ Brown 927
2) Terry McLaurin 919
3) DK Metcalf 819
4) Deebo Samuel 700
5) Darius Slayton 690

Slayton leads with 8 TD’s

— Brad Kelly (@BradKelly17) December 23, 2019

Metcalf caught six balls for 70 yards in the Seahawks’ Week 10 victory. He has been over 70 yards receiving in four of his last seven games, but he’s coming off his worst performance of the season, getting shut out by Patrick Peterson coverage in last week’s loss to the Arizona Cardinals. However, it did show the respect the league is gaining for his play-making ability having Peterson shadow DK over running mate Tyler Lockett.

The Niners have had a stout pass defense all season, ranking number one, giving up only 165.6 passing yards a game. But even the top pass defense isn’t immune to giving up plays through the air. In the last two weeks, the Niners have given up 117 yards to Robert Woods and 134 to Julio Jones, respectively.

Pick: DK Metcalf 70+ Receiving Yards 1+ Touchdown +425
Risk: 2 units to win 8.5 units

Prop #3: Russell Wilson Passing Yards

Russell Wilson has had an efficient year with 29 touchdown passes against 5 interceptions. He has posted 3,877 passing yards on 476 pass attempts. Those 476 pass attempts place him 14th in the league in attempts. He hasn’t had to throw the ball around too much, exceeding 36 pass attempts in a game only twice all year. The Seahawks own the leagues third-best rushing attack through Week 16, which also factors into Wilson’s lack of usage.

Oh how quickly things change in the NFL. In the past few weeks, the Seahawks have lost all three of their top running back options to season-ending injuries. This has prompted the Seahawks to kick it old school, signing previous Seahawk rushers Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin. Although both rushers are familiar with the system, their lack of action this season will likely keep them to minimal roles, leaving the Seahawks to lean on their veteran Super Bowl-winning QB.

MVP frontrunner. Seven-time #ProBowl QB.

There's only one @DangeRussWilson ? pic.twitter.com/m9bylEGvqC

— NFL (@NFL) December 20, 2019

Week 10 in San Fran saw Chris Carson tote the rock 25 times and the Seahawks were split down the middle, totaling 34 rush attempts and 34 pass attempts. Look for the ratio to be more pass-heavy this time around with all the injuries the Seahawks have incurred. The Niners have shown some leaks in recent weeks, giving up a game-winning drive in a loss to the Falcons in Week 15, and giving up 323 yards passing to the Rams’ on-again-off-again QB Jared Goff in Week 16.

Pick: Russell Wilson 260+ Passing Yards
Risk: 2 units to win 2.46 units