Odds Say Derek Carr Will Not Be Raiders Starting QB in 2020

• Derek Carr has thrown for 3,372 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season
• Carr has thrown 13 touchdowns and just three picks in first halves, but has six touchdowns and five interceptions in second halves
• Odds are against him returning as the Raiders’ starter in 2020

The Oakland Raiders and Derek Carr don’t look like they’re a marriage made to last. The latest headlines out of Oakland suggest that there’s a growing disconnect between head coach Jon Gruden and Carr, and that they might be heading for a breakup. The odds show Carr is -140 to be elsewhere next season. Is that a good bet?

Odds Derek Carr Is Raiders’ Starter in Week 1, 2020

Odds taken Dec. 18.

Carr Started 2019 Campaign Strong But Has Faded

The Raiders have arguably exceeded expectations this season. What was supposed to be a rebuilding year has seen the team notch six wins and make a playoff push. However, a strong start has faded into a four-game losing streak. In their latest loss, quarterback Derek Carr was booed off the field at the end of the game, the last in the Black Hole.

Carr was very briefly playing like an MVP-caliber player earlier in the year and overall, he’s had a pretty solid campaign. He’s 14th in passing yards with 3,372, has 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions and is 13th in QBR. Those are all middle-of-the-pack numbers.

The Raiders could do a lot worse, though, and keep in mind that Carr isn’t exactly playing with a full deck of cards. Sure, he has Tyrell Williams, who can be a decent wideout when healthy, but he’s been banged up this year and there’s not much quality at the wide receiver position beyond him.

Carr has also suffered from a leaky defense, which constantly puts the offense in a hole. His offensive line doesn’t offer much support either. Carr was sacked eight times in his first eight games; he’s been sacked 15 times in his last six.

At the same time, there appears to be a disconnect with Carr and head coach Jon Gruden, as Carr makes some boneheaded plays that really rub Gruden the wrong way. Over the last couple of weeks, Carr has thrown the ball away when the game has been on the line.

Carr also tends to run really hot and cold. He has 13 touchdowns and three picks in first halves this season; he has six touchdowns and five interceptions in second halves. Oakland has been outscored 78-9 in second halves over the last four games.

Can The Raiders Do Better?

In a league where there are so many teams struggling to find a good passer, should the Raiders give up on an average pivot to try to find someone elite? It’s a tough question to answer. If the Raiders plug all of the other holes and give Carr some weapons, they can probably be a 10-win team.

Can they ever win a Super Bowl with Carr? Probably not. However, Carr is a better option than the likes of Kyle Allen and Mitchell Trubisky. A team can do a lot worse in this league. With the Raiders still being in the midst of their rebuild, they’re likely to move on.

One of the keys to this wager is that Carr is due to make $21.5 million next season. The Raiders can cut ties in the offseason and only incur a $5 million dead-cap hit. Keeping him for one more year and then cutting him in 2021 would only cost them $2.5 million. They have loads of cap space right now, so this won’t be a big concern either way.

What’s The Best Bet?

I personally think that this is a slippery slope to go down. Teams often think they can do better than their current coach or quarterback, but there aren’t a ton of good ones out there. A lot of teams would be interested in Carr if he became a free agent tomorrow.

At the same time, the Raiders are in a rebuild and are looking to do better than just 10-6, which figures to be about Carr’s ceiling. With the franchise set to move to Las Vegas next season, they’re likely to look for an answer in the draft. I’d bet on Carr to be elsewhere next season.

Pick:  No (-140)