Odds Favor Bills & Colts Making Playoffs Over Chargers & Browns After Week 3

• The Buffalo Bills are 3-0 and are allowing just 15.7 points per game
• The Indianapolis Colts could be 3-0 had Adam Vinatieri made not missed so many kicks against the Chargers in Week 2
• The Bills and Colts have the best playoff odds in the AFC among non-division favorites

The Buffalo Bills are 3-0 to start the season, which is not something that many people expected. They now have the fourth-best odds to make the playoffs, which is even better than the AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens. Let’s take a look at four AFC teams and handicap their odds to make or miss the playoffs.

Odds to Make 2019-20 AFC Playoffs

*Odds taken on 09/25/19. 

Bills Looking Good

The Bills have picked up three straight wins to start the season, which is quite impressive for this young squad. We’re talking about a team that had just six wins a year ago and a -105 point differential; they’re already halfway to that mark after just three weeks.

Of course, detractors will point to the fact that the combined record of their first three opponents (Jets, Giants, Bengals) is 1-8, but the Bills have shown some guts in these games. They came back from 16 down against the New York Jets to win and outlasted the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday.

What you have to love about the Bills is the defense. They’re giving up just 15.7 points per game – tied for the fifth-best mark in football. On the other side of the ball, the offensive line is improved, there is an explosive running back in rookie Devin Singletary, and quarterback Josh Allen has some weapons to work with in his sophomore season.

The Bills should be playoff-bound based on all of that. Their defense was already playoff-caliber and now that the offense – and Allen – are more reliable, they are among the six-best teams in the conference. If Allen can cut down on the turnovers, this could be a 10-win team.

Are The Browns Playoff-Worthy?

At this point, it’s hard for me to bet on the Browns to make the playoffs. A team that was supposed to be an offensive juggernaut is averaging just 16.3 points per game. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is completing just 56.9% of his passes and the running game ranks 25th in the NFL.

Of greater concern is the offensive line, which can’t seem to give Mayfield enough time to work, and a head coach in Freddie Kitchens who appears to be lost at sea. There’s a lot of talent on this team but they’re less than a sum of their parts right now.

When you look at the schedule, four of the Browns’ next five games are on the road. Three of them are against teams currently leading their divisions as they visit Baltimore, San Francisco and New England. The one home game is against Seattle.

There’s a really good chance the Browns are out of the playoff race by Week 8.

Are The Colts Going To The Playoffs?

The Indianapolis Colts have been one of the early surprises of the NFL season, going 2-1 without Andrew Luck under center. Jacoby Brissett is improving by the week as he continues to give his team a good chance to win every Sunday. He has seven touchdowns to just one interception, and his QBR of 60.6 is 10th in the NFL.

What you have to like about the Colts is that they’re well-coached and they don’t beat themselves. They are now one of the best rushing teams in the NFL (Marlon Mack is third in rushing yards) and the defense is competitive. Remember, the defense is without leading tackler Darius Leonard, who is in concussion protocol.

Other injuries, like T.Y. Hilton (questionable for Week 4) and Malik Hooker (out four-to-six weeks) loom large on this team. However, this is the most balanced team in the AFC South. With home games against Oakland, Denver, Miami, and Jacksonville coming up, this team should be at six wins, minimum, by Week 12.

That being the case, I’ll take a flier on the Colts to get into the playoffs. With Brissett getting better each week, I expect them to earn a playoff spot in an otherwise lackluster AFC.

Are The Chargers Heading To The Postseason?

It’s hard to believe that the 12-win Los Angeles Chargers are just 1-2 so far this season. Their lone win was in overtime against the Colts when Adam Vinatieri forgot how to kick field goals. They could realistically be 0-3.

At the same time, the Chargers are very short-handed; they’re without All-Pro safety Derwin James, running back Melvin Gordon, left tackle Russell Okung, and tight end Hunter Henry.

Gordon and Okung could be back soon, but I would fade the Chargers. They are playing like a team that’s been sapped of a lot of talent, which is exactly what they are. Remember, they also lost Tyrell Williams in free agency. You can’t remove that much off a roster from year-to-year and expect the same results.

The schedule is forgiving with Miami, Denver, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee coming up, and they still have two games against Oakland, but I see this team in the neighborhood of 8-8 or 9-7. Their offense is Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen, and their defense is Joey Bosa and Melvin Engram. There has to be more to a team than that to amount to a playoff-caliber squad.

I’d bet them and the Browns to miss the playoffs while taking a shot on the on the Bills and Colts based on the latest NFL playoff odds.