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Odds on Jets Signing Colin Kaepernick Listed at +1000, Dolphins at +1500

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in NFL Football

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 11:45 AM PDT

Colin Kaepernick standing on the sideline in San Francisco
Colin Kaepernick has not played in the NFL since opting out of his contract to be a free agent in 2016. Photo from @ComplexSports (Twitter).
  • Sam Darnold and Trevor Siemian are both sidelined for the NY Jets
  • Miami’s Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the worst QB in the league through two weeks
  • Sportsbooks have posted odds that the Jets and Dolphins will sign Colin Kaepernick as a replacement

The NFL season is entering Week 3, and already the biggest story of the campaign has been the rash of injuries plaguing starting quarterbacks across the league. The team hardest hit by the injury bug so far is the New York Jets.

The Jets lost starter Sam Darnold to mono after Week 1, and then backup Trevor Siemian suffered a brutal ankle injury shortly into Week 2. Now, with third-stringer Luke Falk left to hold the fort, they are scrambling to find depth at the position.

Sportsbooks have responded with a prop on the team turning to controversial ex-49er Colin Kaepernick.  The oddsmakers have also thrown the Dolphins into the mix as a potential landing spot for “Kaep”, not because of injury, but because starter Ryan Fitzpatrick has one TD, four picks, and a 39.9 passer rating this year.

Odds to Sign Colin Kaepernick

Team “Yes” Odds “No” Odds
New York Jets +1000 -2500
Miami Dolphins +1500 -3000

Odds as of 18/09/2019.

Three Years On, Kaepernick Remains a Controversial Figure

It has been almost three years since Kaepernick last appeared in an NFL game. The 31-year-old generated considerable controversy with his pre-game protests in 2015 and 2016, taking a knee during the playing of the Star Spangled Banner as a protest against police brutality, among other things.

The six-year NFL veteran subsequently opted out of his contract with the San Francisco 49ers at the conclusion of the 2016 campaign, and has not played since. But while there is ample evidence to suggest that Kaepernick has remained in top physical shape since seeing his NFL career come to an abrupt halt, there is little to suggest that any NFL team is prepared to risk the wave of controversy that would likely come in the wake of signing him.

Jets Set to Weather the Storm with Fales Signing

Forced to turn to Falk after Siemian was knocked out of New York’s lopsided 23-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football, the Jets wasted no time in  signing David Fales early on Wednesday.

Fales has appeared in just three career NFL games , and has not taken a snap in an NFL regular-season contest since Week 17 of the 2017 NFL season. The move to sign Fales is unlikely to turn things around for the Jets, who have been outclassed in a pair of losses , and now look forward to a Week 3 clash in New England as massive 22.5-point underdogs.

Now a distant +25000 bet in the odds to win Super Bowl 54, and with starter Sam Darnold expected to return to action some time next month, the Jets have little motivation to court any more controversy than they have already endured this year.

That leaves little value in wagering on Kaepernick to make a debut on Broadway anytime soon.

Dolphins Searching for Answers During Dismal Start

The Dolphins have sparked conversation about a potential winless season after opening their schedule with a pair of embarrassing losses. Miami suffered two of the three worst defeats in team history to open the year, getting outscored by a massive 103-10 margin in losses to Baltimore and the Patriots.

Fitzpatrick has been a disaster,  tossing for just one touchdown against four interceptions, including a pair of pick-sixes in a span of less than two minutes in last week’s humiliating 43-0 loss to New England.

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Second-year pivot Josh Rosen has fared no better, while getting little help. The 22-year-old has completed just 38.1% of pass attempts, and failed to find the end zone while getting sacked four times in limited action.

However, with the Dolphins now in all-out tank mode, and sporting attractive +500 odds of going 0-16 this season, there would appear to be little to gain by bringing in Kaepernick. As a result, there’s little value on taking the +1500 odds of Miami signing Kaepernick, who appears to be no closer to seeing his exile from the NFL come to an end.

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