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Odds to Make NFL Playoffs After Week 12: Value on Broncos?

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Updated Apr 1, 2020 · 12:10 AM PDT

Darian Stewart and Will Parks Broncos DBs celebrate
Will Parks has been responsible for one of the six turnovers the Denver Broncos have generated in the last two weeks. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License].
  • There are only five weeks left in the 2018 NFL season
  • A few divisions may be all but settled, but there are a handful of teams in the race for wild card spots in each conference
  • See the odds to make the playoffs in the AFC and NFC

You might want to sit down before reading this next sentence.

There are only five weeks left in the 2018 NFL season. [Cue the panic]

But while that may seem like nothing to us fans, five more weeks is still a lot of football and a lot can change in that time.

As we head into Week 13, there are a few teams feeling pretty confident in where they stand through 11 games. Others have accepted the sad truth that their seasons will not extend into 2019.

The majority, however, find themselves in the thick of the playoff race in their respective conferences.

Check their chances at playing into 2019, starting with the AFC.

Odds to Make the AFC Playoffs

Team 2018 Record Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Miss Playoffs
Baltimore Ravens 6-5* +120 -160
Cincinnati Bengals 5-6 +900 -3500
Denver Broncos 5-6 +375 -650
Houston Texans 8-3* -10000 +1400
Indianapolis Colts 6-5 +135 -175
Los Angeles Chargers 8-3* -900 +500
Miami Dolphins 5-6 +900 -3500
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3-1* -2000 +750
Tennessee Titans 5-6 +400 -700

*Teams who currently hold a playoff spot

Is There Value in Betting the Broncos to Make the Playoffs?

Heading into their bye in Week 10 after a demoralizing loss at home to the Houston Texans in Week 9, the Denver Broncos season looked all but over at 3-6.

But following hard fought victories over the Chargers and Steelers in Weeks 11 and 12, the Broncos are trending upwards.

Their defense has held teams to just 19.6 points per game over the last five weeks and have generated six turnovers in the last two weeks.

More importantly, they are finally capitalizing on their red zone trips. Through the first six weeks of the season, the Broncos were only turning 47.4% of their red zone trips into touchdowns – 25th in the league.

In the last three weeks, they have converted on 70% of those trips, good for 12th-best in the NFL.

it’s not just the way Denver is playing that makes them an attractive bet at +375, it’s who they’re about to play.

Remaining Schedules for AFC Teams

Team Wk 13 Wk 14 Wk 15 Wk 16 Wk 17 Combined Wins of Opponents
Denver Broncos @CIN @SF v CLE @OAK v LAC 21
Baltimore Ravens @ATL @KC v TB @LAC v CLE 29
Indianapolis Colts @JAX @HOU v DAL v NYG @TEN 25
Miami Dolphins v BUF v NE @MIN v JAX @BUF 25
Tennessee Titans v NYJ v JAX @NYG v WAS v IND 21

The trip to Cincinnati to play in a 1pm EST game had me a little concerned at first. But with news that Andy Dalton is done for the season, I’m confident a desperate Broncos team can overcome the time shift and beat Jeff Driskel.

Odds to Make the NFC Playoffs

Team 2018 Record Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Miss Playoffs
Atlanta Falcons 4-7 +1400 -10000
Carolina Panthers 6-5 +175 -260
Chicago Bears 8-3* -10000 +1400
Dallas Cowboys 6-5* -170 +130
Detroit Lions 4-7 +1400 -10000
Green Bay Packers 4-6-1 +450 -850
Minnesota Vikings 6-4-1* -220 +155
Philadelphia Eagles 5-6 +220 -300
Seattle Seahawks 6-5 -400 +250
Washington Redskins 6-5* +275 -450

*Teams who currently hold a playoff spot

Cowboys are Far From a Lock

Just as quickly as the Cowboys have resurrected their season with a three-game winning streak, it’s very possible they put themselves back against the ropes with a three-game losing streak.

Dallas’ next three opponents are as follows: the New Orleans Saints (they’re 7.5-point dogs at home), Philadelphia Eagles, and Indianapolis Colts (on the road).

Yes, someone does have to win the NFC East, and I’m not still holding onto memories of the 2017 Eagles. But I’m also not that impressed with the Cowboys.

The only team with a winning record Dallas has beaten this season came last week against the Colt McCoy-led Washington Redskins.

With the Eagles secondary getting healthy, the +130 odds for Dallas to miss the playoffs become pretty enticing.

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