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NFL Odds and Spreads – Line Movement for Week 11

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Nov 18, 2022 · 11:41 AM PST

NFL Odds and Spreads - Line Movement for Week 11
Nov 13, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) gestures on the line of scrimmage against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half of the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
  • In the Week 11 NFL line movement, point spreads are tightening up
  • Seven games are displaying point spreads of three points or less
  • Only one game is counting a total over 50 points, while for six games the over/under is 41.5 points or less

There’s been plenty of line movement in the odds and spreads for Week 11 of the NFL season. And one game movement.

The Buffalo Bills, who remain the chalk in the Super Bowl odds despite consecutive losses, will be giving up home-field advantage this week as they are facing the Cleveland Browns. The projection of several feet of snow hitting Western New York caused the NFL to make the decision to play the Browns vs Bills game at Detroit’s Ford Field.

In the NFL odds, the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) are a seven-point pick to rebound from their first loss of the season and handle the Indianapolis Colts.

Before diving deeper into this week’s line movement, let’s look at the up-to-date Week 11 NFL odds.

NFL Week 11 Betting Lines

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Los Angeles Rams +148 +3 (-110) Over 39 (-110)
New Orleans Saints -175 -3 (-110) Under 39 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Cleveland Browns +285 +8 (-110) Over 49.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills -365 -8 (-110) Under 49.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Philadelphia Eagles -320 -7 (+100) Over 45.5(-110)
Indianapolis Colts +250 +7 (-120) Under 45.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Carolina Panthers +550 +13 (-110) Over 41 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens -800 -13 (-110) Under 41 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Washington Commanders -165 -3 (-110) Over 40.5 (-110)
Houston Texans +140 +3 (-110) Under 40.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
New York Jets +143 +3.5 (-110) Over 38 (-110)
New England Patriots -170 -3.5 (-110) Under 38 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Detroit Lions +140 +3 (-110) Over 44.5 (-110)
New York Giants -165 -3 (-110) Under 44.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Chicago Bears +143 +3 (-110) O 49 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons -170 -3 (-110) U 49 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Cincinnati Bengals -205 -4 (-110) Over 41 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers +170 +4 (-110) Under 41 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Las Vegas Raiders +205 +2.5 (+100) Over 41.5 (-110)
Denver Broncos -250 -2.5 (-120) Under 41.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Dallas Cowboys -125 -1.5 (-110) Over 47.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings +105 +1.5 (-110) Under 47.5 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Kansas City Chiefs -240 -5 (-110) Over 52 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers +196 +5 (-110) Under 52 (-110)
Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
San Francisco 49ers -365 -8 (-110) Over 43.5 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals +285 +8 (-110) Over 43.5 (-110)

Odds as of November 18 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

In Week 11 against the spread picks, home teams are favored in seven of 13 games, with six games showing totals that are under 41.5 points.

NFL Week 11 Biggest Line Movement

A trio of games are sharing the honor for the biggest spread movement of the week. Although in all honesty, the movement isn’t that big – 1.5 points to be precise.

The Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints game saw the Saints jump from 1.5 to 3-point favorites over the reigning Super Bowl champions. The Eagles found their margin over the Colts shortening from 8.5 to seven points. Kansas City went from a 6.5 to a 5-point road chalk over their AFC West rivals the Los Angeles Chargers.

In the NFL public betting trends, bettors are thinking that three points might be too much for the Saints to be getting over the Rams. LA is garnering point spread support in the public betting splits to the tune of 52% of handle and 57% of bets.

Biggest Total Movement In Week 11 NFL Lines

Across NFL betting sites, the Browns vs Bills total was moving, but not as far as they’re moving the game. The over/under on this game grew from 47.5 to 49.5 points, as oddsmakers are definitely thinking that going indoors should spark the potent Buffalo offense.

Two other games also saw a 2-point move in their total, albeit in the opposite direction. Both the Bengals vs Steelers and Panthers vs Ravens encountered shrinking totals that are now each at 41 points.

Oddsmakers Banking On Vikings Letdown

In the NFL Week 11 opening odds, the Minnesota Vikings were surprising 2.5-point home underdogs facing the Dallas Cowboys. Last week, both teams were involved in emotional finishes. Minnesota rallied to win 33-30 in overtime at Buffalo. Dallas blew a 14-point lead and lost in OT at Green Bay.

The line has since shortened to Dallas -1.5, but it’s still somewhat puzzling to see the 8-1 Vikings home underdogs to a team that coughed up a game on the road one week earlier. Are the Vikings in line for a letdown? Well, Minnesota is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 games as a home underdog.

Longest Odds of Week 11

Baltimore is set as a 13-point favorite over the Carolina Panthers, who are coming off a victory last week over the Atlanta Falcons. It’s the third time this season that the Panthers are being set as double-digit point underdogs.

Carolina lost 42-10 at the Rams as a 10-point underdog. However, the Panthers were 21-3 winners against Tampa Bay as 13-point dogs. But that one was on the road. Carolina is 0-5 straight up and 2-3 against the spread in the last five games that the club has played away from home as a double-digit dog.

Patriots and Jets Generally Go Low

The low total in the Week 11 line movement belongs to the AFC East rivalry between the New England Patriots and New York Jets. It’s set at 38 points.

This season, the Patriots are 4-5 on the total. The Jets are 3-6 in over/under plays. Both the Patriots (6th, 18.4 points per game allowed) and Jets (10th, 19.6 points per game allowed) rate among the top 10 in the NFL in scoring defense.

In five games this season, the Patriots have held the opposition to 17 points or less. The Jets have held five opponents under 20 points during the 2022 season.

Chiefs Yet Again the Big Total Team

For the second week in a row, when you add up the totals, the biggest number is assigned to the game involving Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. The total for their game with the Chargers is set at 52 points.

During the Mahomes era in Kansas City, this is the 59th game in which a Chiefs game is showing a total of 50 or more points. In 31 of those games, the Chiefs have gone over. They’ve gone under 27 times.

If you’re wondering which way to go with total in this week’s Chiefs vs the Chargers tilt, again, let’s look at the Mahomes era. This is the fifth 50+ total assigned to a Chiefs-Chargers contest. The over is 2-3 in those games. Overall, the under has hit between these two teams in two of the last three games, three of the past five and four out of seven. But go back nine games and the edge goes 5-4 to the over.

 

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