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Opening 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds – Dak Prescott Heavily Favored

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated May 10, 2021 · 7:58 PM PDT

Dak Prescott escapes the pocket
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) scrambles out of the pocket before throwing a pass in the second half of an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins, File)
  • Dak Prescott is a +175 favorite to win next season’s NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award
  • Prescott missed the Cowboys’ final 11 games in 2020 due to a compound fracture and dislocation of his right ankle
  • Read below for opening odds analysis for the top contenders

Dak Prescott was well on his way to the best statistical year of his career in 2020, before an ankle injury cut his season short. Dallas’ star QB suffered a compound fracture and dislocation to his right ankle in Week 5 against the rival New York Giants, and was forced to watch the Cowboys miss the playoffs for the second consecutive season from the sidelines.

Fast forward seven months, and Prescott, in his own words, is well ahead of schedule in his rehab. He says he could play today if he had to, and has been installed as the favorite to win the 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award.

2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award

Team Odds at DraftKings
Dak Prescott +175
Nick Bosa +400
Christian McCaffrey +500
Saquon Barkley +600
Joe Burrow +700
Joe Mixon +1000
Carson Wentz +1000
Von Miller +1400
Sam Darnold +1600
Derwin James +2000
Odell Beckham Jr. +2500
Danielle Hunter +3300
Julio Jones +3300
Jameis Winston +3300
Jimmy Garoppolo +5000
Damien Williams +6600
Dont’a Hightower +10000
CJ Mosley +10000
Tim Tebow +10000
Kyle Long +15000

Odds as of May 10th.

Prescott will be looking to become the fourth straight QB to win the award. Last year’s winner Alex Smith, won in a landslide earning 49 of 50 first place votes, but wasn’t even listed as a contender when the 2020 NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds came out.

Prescott Primed For Big Year

Dallas only won two of Prescott’s five starts in 2020, but the Cowboys record doesn’t tell the whole story. Their defense allowed 36 points per game in those outings, which overshadowed Prescott’s gaudy numbers.

Prescott put up 1,856 passing yards and 9 TD in less than five full games, while also chipping in three rushing TD. The Cowboys’ three-receiver set of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup is one of the best in football, while the offensive line should once again be one of the top groups in the league.

Also working in his favor, is the fact that Mike McCarthy is one of the most pass happy coaches in the league. Dallas threw the ball on 61.37% of its offensive plays last season, while Green Bay threw on 67.54% of its plays in McCarthy’s final season with the Packers. A passing play percentage somewhere in the middle is safe to project for Prescott in 2021, which means there is going to be plenty of opportunity to rack up video game type numbers.

Given the pedigrees of some of the other contenders for this award, Prescott is going to need a monster season to win it, but that’s exactly what is expected of the 27-year-old in 2021. He recently signed a 6-year, $240 million deal with the Cowboys, and is a top-seven contender to win the Regular Season MVP.

His playing situation, along with his elite receiving corps, makes him a very worthy favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year, but the price tag is not appealing at all. Instead of betting him at +175, take a shot at his MVP odds at +1600. If he can replicate the success he had early last season for an entire 17 games, he’ll likely be one of the favorites down the stretch.

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Fade the Running Backs

The list of running backs expected to contend for this award is impressive, as Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Joe Mixon are all among the top-six favorites in the 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds. But, before you go racing to your online sportsbook to bet on your favorite bell cow back, consider this: no running back has won Comeback Player of the Year since Garrison Hearst in 2001.

The running back position is one of the most dangerous to play in all of football, and injuries are inevitable. McCaffrey played only three games in 2020 due to ankle, shoulder and quad injuries, while Mixon missed the final 10 games with a foot problem. Barkley meanwhile, has sat out 17 games over the past two seasons with ankle and knee injuries.

It’s nearly impossible for starting running backs, especially those who handle a three-down role, to stay healthy all year, and that opportunity cost is not factored into their Comeback Player of the Year odds. Instead of betting on one of those backs to not only stay healthy all year, but also put up award winning numbers, stick with quarterbacks.

Believe In Burrow

One QB in particular to target is former number one pick Joe Burrow. Cincy’s franchise signal caller thrived in his rookie season before a torn ACL derailed his year. He ranked fourth among qualified passers in expected completion percentage on throws under 4 seconds, and now has his old LSU running mate Ja’Marr Chase to help improve his deep passing game.

The duo were unstoppable during the Tigers’ National Title run in 2019, and Chase’s addition gives Burrow one of the better three-receiver sets in the league, along with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

Burrow is no stranger to racking up hardware, with an aforementioned National Championship and Heisman Trophy under his belt. He has a smart, forward thinking head coach in Zac Taylor to help accelerate his development, and we should see a significant leap from year one to year two. I’m betting that leap will be enough earn him his first major award at the NFL level.

Pick: Joe Burrow (+700)

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