Opening Odds to Win AFC South Favor the Houston Texans, Titans Follow Closely Behind
- Opening odds see the Houston Texans as favorites to win the AFC South for a third-straight season
- Tennessee is second, followed closely by the Colts
- See the opening odds for all teams to win the NFL’s AFC South Division in 2020
While it hasn’t come with playoff success, the Houston Texans have been a model of consistency when it comes to the AFC South.
They’ve won the division in four of the last five seasons, with Deshaun Watson at the helm for the last two. With superstars on both sides of the ball, they’ve been well balanced during that stretch.
But despite taking the crown, it wasn’t the Texans marching to the AFC Championship game last year. It was the Titans. And that was with Ryan Tannehill starting just 10 games.
Big decisions are looming for the Titans, and it could see them knock the Texans off.
2020 AFC South Odds
| Team | 2019 Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 10-6 | +150 |
| Tennessee Titans | 9-7 | +200 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7-9 | +250 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-10 | +900 |
Odds taken Mar. 3.
Things are tight in the AFC South.
Among the 2020 NFL Divisional Odds, it’s the closest division in the AFC. It’s very different than a year ago when, coming off of a fully healthy season, Andrew Luck had the Colts as favorites.
We all know how that ended up. Luck retired, Indy was hot and cold, and after the odds tightened between the Titans and Texans at the end of September, Houston kept Tennessee at arm’s length the rest of the way.
But coming off of a dynamic run to close the year, both the Titans and Texans have questions to answer.
Houston Texans Face Key Offensive Moves
For years, the Texans’ biggest woe has been pass protection.
They solved that ahead of the 2019 season by acquiring Laremy Tunsil. Now they have to re-sign him.
Pay up!!!! https://t.co/OwQLWRPWZQ
— Kenny Stills (@KSTiLLS) February 29, 2020
Reports are that Tunsil wants to be paid elite left tackle money. Tunsil earned the third-highest pass-blocking grade among tackles according to ProFootballFocus in 2019. His run blocking was 25th, but the priority is keeping Watson upright.
What Will Houston Texans Do at Running Back?
After his season, the Houston Chronicle dubbed the Carlos Hyde experiment a success. He’s a free agent, but a journeyman. They think Hyde could be back, and not at a huge price.
Want to shoot a little higher? What about a Melvin Gordon or RFA Austin Ekeler? Kareem Hunt could be an upgrade too given their cap space.
Will Derrick Henry Run Wild on AFC South?
Moving to the Titans, the biggest star from last year’s playoff run, Derrick Henry racked up 446 yards on 83 carries. Good for 148.7 yards-per-game.
Henry’s success wasn’t limited to playoffs either. He led the league in rushing attempts, yards and TDs last year, and averaged 4.9 yards-per-carry in 2018.
According to PFF, Henry was fifth in breakaway percentage and fourth in elusiveness among rushers playing at least 50% of snaps.
“A Titans insider told me he expects the team to franchise Derrick Henry (if they can't come to a long-term deal) and let Ryan Tannehill test the market.”
What to make of this… https://t.co/u9yPeEMZOv
— Titans Film Room💎🙌 (@titansfilmroom) March 3, 2020
So he’s set to cash in on the open market. Unless he’s franchised. Which looks likely.
Assuming Henry gets tagged, that leads to our next question.
Who Plays QB for Titans in 2020?
The choice, we’re assuming, comes down to Ryan Tannehill and Tom Brady. Although other free-agent options could present themselves.
If Mike Vrabel wants his old teammate Brady slinging it for the Titans, he probably has the most attractive situation outside of New England. If he settles on Tannehill, he’s got a guy who enjoyed one of the great all-time heaters when he took over under center.
Ryan Tannehill: 16-Game Average vs 2019
| 333/529 | Comp/Att | 201/286 |
| 62.8 | Comp% | 70.3 |
| 3715 | Yards | 2742 |
| 22 | TD | 22 |
| 14 | INT | 6 |
| 87.0 | Rating | 117.5 |
It’s a good position for the Titans to be in.
Texans Still Team to Beat in AFC South
Houston needs to add corners and pass rushers in free agency, but have the money to do that. Even if Tunsil gets his dream deal.
The Titans need to prove whether the AFC finalist of 2019 is for real or not. They may have some hidden needs at corner, and need their young pass catchers to take the next step.
Given the choice, if the Colts’ pursuit of Philip Rivers comes to pass, they may be the better investment. But with so many decisions yet to come, the Texans are the safe bet at this point.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
