Packers vs Niners SNF Week 12 Props: Will The Niners #1 Pass D Hold Up Facing A-Rod?

• The (9-1) San Francisco 49ers and the (8-2) Green Bay Packers have been flexed into the Week 12 SNF slot for a matchup featuring two of the NFC’s best
• It’s time to see what these Niners are made of after a very soft first 10 games in 2019
• Week 11 marked the 4th week in a row finishing in the black after a dismal 2nd quarter of the season profiting 2.63 units cutting my season total down to -2.8 units

It’s Week 12 of the 2019 season already and what a roller coaster of a ride it has been for my bankroll and so many of the NFL’s teams.

Even in this matchup between two NFC elites we don’t have to look far to see struggles for either of these Super Bowl hopefuls. Back in Week 9 the Green Bay Packers rolled into Los Angeles and put up a dud versus the Chargers, while the San Francisco 49ers’ first loss came the following week to division rival Seattle. The NFL has been kind enough to flex this matchup into the SNF slot so we all can witness two of the NFC’s Super Bowl hopefuls with the 8-2 Packers visiting the 9-1 49ers.

My bankroll has become dangerously close to breaking even after a mighty struggle during the 2nd quarter of the season. Week 11 was marked my 4th winning week in a row profiting 2.63 units shrinking my season total to -2.8 units. Week 12 offers something a little different, as sometimes you have to take advantage of the numbers. Let’s have a look at the three props I will be riding with for the Week 12 SNF matchup.

Prop #1: Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

All odds taken Nov. 23

Aaron Rodgers has not had a typical Aaron Rodgers season as his 17 passing TDs through 10 regular season games comes in below his 2.03 touchdown passes per game career average. Rodgers has been without #1 receiver Davante Adams for four of the 10 games, and the rushing attack has been responsible for the fourth-best TD rate in the league, averaging 1.3 TDs per game.

Adams has been back for the last two Packer games and Rodgers has only mustered 1 TD through the air while Aaron Jones was responsible for three rushing scores on his own in the Pack’s most recent game. With Adams inching closer to full health and his zero TDs trough six games likely evening out with his career 0.49 TD per game rate, Rodgers should find the end zone with a little more ease going forward.

Who’s ready to see a magic show?@AaronRodgers12 and the @Packers always have tricks up their sleeves ✨ pic.twitter.com/S61MkJQSjL

— SNF on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 23, 2019

The Niners’ defense looks ready to help Rodgers out after a few cracks in the foundation have showed up. They have given up five scores through the air the last three games after a four game stretch from Weeks 5-8 surrendering zero passing TDs.

While the Niners boast the leagues #1 pass defense, a quick look at their opponents bring the validity of that ranking into question. With the exception of Russell Wilson, the best QBs the Niners have faced this year reside in the mid range of NFL starters with Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield and Jameis Winston being the best pivots San Fran has shut down. Not exactly a list of Pro Bowl candidates.

Pick: Rodgers over 1.5 passing TDs (-143)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.7 units

Prop #2 and #3: Margin of Victory

The chances of these two division leaders playing in a game that is decided by less then 14 points is high so it’s time to take advantage of the numbers, but not before having a little deeper look at how these two teams compare.

Head-to-Head Statistical Comparison

At first glance it looks like the three points the Niners are favoured by are not near enough, but strength of schedule has played a large part in skewing these numbers.

Head-to-Head Schedule Comparison

San Francisco has only faced two teams above .500 and are 1-1 in these matchups, their lone win coming against the underwhelming Rams. The Packers have faced four teams above the .500 mark and have won all four, with two of the wins coming on the road versus Dallas and the Chiefs. The Packers are proven ready for this pivotal NFC matchup, where the Niners have barely been tested. They show great on paper with a top scoring offense and defense, but the Packers have proven they can beat a good team on the road.

Only two of the Packers’ 10 games have been decided by 14 points or more. The Niners have had four of 10 games decided by 14 or more, which are all wins and against teams that have a combined record of 12-28.

The game is set at SF -3 and will be a close fought battle between two of the best teams in the NFL. Now let’s take advantage of the numbers and secure a fifth winning week in a row.

Pick: GB 1-13 (+212)
Risk 4 units to win 8.48 units

Pick: SF 1-13 (+150)
Risk: 6 units to win 9 units