Packers vs Bears Odds, Lines, and Picks

• The Green Bay Packers visit the Chicago Bears in a battle for first in the NFC North
• Sunday Betting Record: 0-0 ML; 2-2 ATS; 1-1 O/U; -1.70 units
• Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

After a sluggish start and a change in QB, the Chicago Bears appear to have turned the corner early in the season.

How far they’ve come will be under the spotlight, when they host Aaron Rodgers and the surging Packers, in a battle for first in the NFC North.

Since a Week 1 thrashing, the Pack have reeled off four straight wins, backed by stellar QB play and opportunistic defense.

Despite the Bears having won two straight, they enter as 5.5-point home underdogs when they kick off at 1pm ET at Soldier Field Sunday. The game can be seen on FOX.

Packers vs Bears Odds

Odds as of  October 15 at DraftKings.

Peaking Packers

It’s easy to forget Green Bay was dripping in drama, after Rodgers’ offseason of discontent, followed by a 38-3 blowout at the hands of the Saints to start they year.

Since then, it’s been smooth sailing — save for maybe Mason Crosby’s kicking woes last time out in an OT win over the Bengals.

They always say, never give Mason Crosby four chances at a game-winning field goal.

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) October 10, 2021

Rodgers has been his usual self, throwing 10 TDs to just one interception in the last four games, and he’s keeping Davante Adams well fed. The Packers’ star receiver is coming off an 11-catch, 206-yard, 1-TD showing against the Bengals, and leads the NFL in catches (42) and yards receiving (579).

Their defense has also somewhat helped. During this streak, they’ve surrendered just 21 points a game, and have forced at least two turnovers in each of the last four games.

Best in the business. @AaronRodgers12 ✖️ @tae15adams#GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/HEkuk3OMlz

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 11, 2021

One concern in Green Bay may be the mounting injuries. O-lineman Elgton Jenkins is questionable, and All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari remains on the shelf recovering from a knee injury.

Receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling is on injured reserve, and starting corners Kevin King and Jaire Alexander are both out Sunday. All-Pro edge rusher Za’Darius Smith is also down with a back injury. That’s a stack of key contributors sitting for the Pack.

All-Around Bears

Since a woeful loss to the Browns, the Bears have discovered a pretty NFC North-like approach to success — at least one that’s been working as they bring young Justin Fields along at QB: running the ball and defending.

Insulating the 11th overall pick with a strong ground game has been crucial. Two weeks ago in a win against the Lions, David Montgomery established the run, putting up 106 yards on 23 totes and a pair of scores before missing last game with a sprained knee.

Re-watching Khalil Herbert vs LV. He won’t wow you with his size or athleticism but he’s quick and powerful with great vision. Here’s a few of his best runs from Sunday. pic.twitter.com/pKsgp7PczA

— Ryan Mohler (@MohlerNFL) October 14, 2021

Against Vegas, the Bears still ran for 143 yards behind rookie Khalil Herbert, who rushed for 75 yards on 18 carries, while Damian Williams chipped in with 64 yards.

But Montgomery will miss his second straight game and Williams will be out too, placed on the COVID reserve list.

At what point do we start talking about Khalil Mack as a legit DPOY candidate?

He has 5 sacks to start off the year and has been a consistent force for the #Bears off the edge. He’s back to his All-Pro self. pic.twitter.com/kNAeHtOb7i

— Jacob Infante (@jacobinfante24) October 11, 2021

Does that mean the Bears open the passing game with Fields? He hasn’t attempted more than 20 passes in a game yet, and has thrown for just 458 yards and a TD so far this year. With the Pack’s corners out, there will be downfield shots to take.

The defense will be asked to be stout in this one, and they have a chance to hold up their end of the bargain. Chicago has climbed to eighth in total D, sparked in large part to a league-leading 18 sacks. Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn have met at the QB for a combined 9.5 sacks and will be working against a dinged up Packers’ line.

What’s the Best Bet?

It’s hard to bet against Rodgers in this one, as he’s easily the best player on the field and has dominated this series. Green Bay has won 19 of the past 22 head-to-heads including the postseason. Rodgers is also 21-5 in starts  against the Bears.

But there are opportunities to be had here for the home team. Green Bay is a far cry from the red-zone juggernaut they were a year ago. They’ve already failed to score a TD on nine drives in the red zone. That happened 12 times all last year.

.@AaronRodgers12 has played the Bears a lot over the last 10 years… And he has beaten them most times. 🧀

Will he and the @Packers add another W on Sunday? pic.twitter.com/hCYPlbVF9Z

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 15, 2021

Defensively, it’s a nightmare: the Packers enter Week 6 having allowed a TD in 13 straight red zone trips. They’re also 27th in third down defense.

I think the Pack win, but there’s enough to convince me to take those points.

Pick: Bears +5.5 (1.5 units to win 1.92 units)