Patriots Open as Heavy Favorites to Win AFC East in 2019; Is There Any Value in Betting Against New England?
- The New England Patriots have won the AFC East 10 straight times
- The Patriots have opened as a -400 favorite to win the division in 2019
- No other team in the AFC East finished with a winning record in 2018
The New England Patriots have won the AFC East in 10 straight seasons and 15 of the last 16. Needless to say, betting on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to win their division has been one of the easiest bets over the years. They’re again huge chalk in the NFL divisional odds heading into the 2019 season.
Are they a good bet to win it or can someone else steal the throne?
2019 AFC East Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| New England Patriots | -400 |
| New York Jets | +600 |
| Buffalo Bills | +800 |
| Miami Dolphins | +2500 |
*Odds taken 04/23/19
Dolphins Are In Tank Mode
It has been widely reported that the Miami Dolphins are planning to tank the 2019 season and aim for a top quarterback in 2020. Their offseason moves suggested just as much, which is why we see them at +2500.
Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick address the offseason weight he’s put on and blames it on Birthday cake. Seriously! pic.twitter.com/ALp5D5y8VC
— Omar Kelly (@OmarKelly) April 16, 2019
Their entire offseason has focused on subtractions as they traded quarterback Ryan Tannehill and also parted ways with veterans Frank Gore, Danny Amendola, Cam Wake, Robert Quinn and Andre Branch. They also plan to head into the 2019 season with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting quarterback. This team won’t be very competitive.
Bills Made Wholesale Changes
The Bills entered the offseason among the top five teams with salary cap space and they put it to use. Whether it will pay off is still to be seen, though. They signed five offensive linemen, three receivers and a running back. Clearly, they’re doing all they can to improve their 30th-ranked offense.
The Bills really needed help for their passing game where quarterback Josh Allen finished with just 10 passing touchdowns and 12 interceptions. They got the best help available but these guys are mostly waiver-wire scraps. They’re paying speedster John Brown $9 million per season, slot receiver Cole Beasley $7.25 and tight end Tyler Kroft $6 million. Kroft only caught four passes last season.
WR Cole Beasley….why he’s gone, what he got. #Cowboys #Bills #FreeAgency pic.twitter.com/3ZzLZN5X7o
— Jane Slater (@SlaterNFL) March 12, 2019
Yes, they are upgrades over who the Bills had but all three could conceivably bust. The signing of center Mitch Morse and tackles Ty Nsekhe and LaAdrian Waddle should help the offensive line quite a bit, though.
Even so, the Bills 2019 success is still very much tied to Allen. He had some bright spots in 2018 but many downtimes too. If he doesn’t improve significantly in 2019, the Bills will still be a long way away from competing for this division.
Jets On The Rise
The Jets also had a ton of cap space and ended up spending more than the Bills, but it seems like they got better bang for their buck. At running back, they signed Le’Veon Bell, who will cost a lot, but he should be a difference-maker. He gives this offense an explosive playmaker to pair with second-year quarterback Sam Darnold. That will take a lot of pressure off of him.
At wide receiver, they added Jamison Crowder, who will serve as a quality option in the slot. Between him and Bell, Darnold now has some quality safety valves.
This video @LeVeonBell just posted is just making my weekend! This guy is bringing an uplifting feeling to this fanbase and we can’t get enough of it #juice #lifesagamble #nyjets pic.twitter.com/uTp4naoTRt
— Gang Green (@itsGangGreen) April 20, 2019
On defense, the Jets also spent big as they added C.J. Mosley to their linebacking corps. Mosley was a four-time Pro Bowler and gives this unit a general in the middle of the field. This unit needed someone like that after giving up the 25th-most yards per game last season.
The Jets only won four games last season they should be among the biggest turnaround teams in 2019. It won’t be enough to win the division but they look like a team on the rise.
Patriots Still The Team To Beat
Here’s the issue with betting against the Patriots: they’ve won at least 10 games in 16 straight seasons. Yes, the Bills and Jets are improved but are they going to win at least 10 or 11 games and stop the Patriots reign atop the AFC East? Definitely not.
One way to remember who you are is to remember who your heroes are. —Steve Jobs @TomBrady pic.twitter.com/xyBV4RXmhM
— Vala Afshar (@ValaAfshar) April 23, 2019
The Patriots did wave goodbye to Rob Gronkowski but this team never rebuilds; they just keep competing. They still have a solid offensive line, a good ground game and Tom Brady. Yes, this team lost Trey Flowers and Trent Brown but they lose great players each year and still stay strong. With six picks in the first three rounds of the 2019 NFL Draft, they’ll fill the gaps.
There’s a lot of juice here but this team is the soundest bet to win the division. Unless you’re expecting an injury, expect to see the Patriots win the AFC East again in 2019.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
