Ravens Seeing 64% of Money as 3-Point Home Underdogs Against Patriots on Sunday Night Football
- The New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens square off on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Nov. 3)
- The Patriots are 3-point road favorites, but 64% of the ATS money is on the Ravens
- 91% of all sharp ATS money is on Baltimore – read below for our betting prediction
The undefeated New England Patriots (8-0) clash with the Baltimore Ravens (5-2) in their toughest test of the season on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Nov. 3). The Pats have won 12 straight dating back to last season, and are 3-point favorites on the road in Baltimore.
Patriots vs Ravens Spread and Money Breakdown
| Team | Spread | ATS Money% |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | -3.0 (-114) | 36.0% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +3.0 (-106) | 64.0% |
Odds taken Nov. 2, 2019
New England opened as 3.5-point favorites but that number has come down half a point despite 70% of the ATS bets being on the Pats. That’s because sportsbooks are reporting that 64% of all ATS money is on the Ravens, including 91% of the sharp ATS cash.
The Ravens were off last week and are 9-2 after a bye in the John Harbaugh era. They’re one of the most complete teams in the NFL, but can they upset the juggernaut Pats?
How the Ravens Can Roll
It’s no secret that the key to beating Tom Brady over the years has been to pressure him and disrupt his timing. Brady is virtually flawless in a clean pocket but has struggled mightily in his career with pressure in his face and 2019 is no exception. When facing heat this season, Brady is completing just 32% of his passes and is being sacked on 14% of his drop backs. When he’s not under pressure, he has a 76% completion rate, a 9-2 TD to INT ratio, and a sparkling 93.2 Pro Football Focus grade
Call us the underdogs, cuz this dog’s gotta eat.
?: @Gervontaa pic.twitter.com/JBQaBYTSG2
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 1, 2019
Baltimore will also need to pound the rock and protect the football. If there’s one hole in the Pats historically dominant defense it’s versus the run. New England ranks 21st in yards per carry allowed (4.6) and just surrendered 131 yards on the ground to Nick Chubb in Week 8. The Pats counter that deficiency by forcing a league best 3.1 turnovers a game, and if the Ravens get sloppy with the football it will be a long evening.
The Patriots’ defense just scored their 4th TD this season.
They’ve allowed three all year. ? pic.twitter.com/2dAcgjnF9s
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 27, 2019
How the Patriots Prevail
New England leads the NFL in virtually every key defensive category, but defending Lamar Jackson is a unique challenge. The Ravens’ second-year star is the first quarterback to record at least 1,600 passing yards and 500 rushing yards in the first seven games of the season, and he’s the only reason why Baltimore averages over 30 points per game.
Juke man, Juke man, yeah that’s @Lj_era8❗️
(we really put all his best jukes in a video ?) pic.twitter.com/Q3x3WGEevo
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 25, 2019
The Pats will no doubt have a very specific game plan to slow down Jackson and chances are it will involve trying to make him one-dimensional. Jackson is much more dangerous with his legs than his arm, and while he is capable of putting up big numbers through the air, he has not done so since early in the season. Jackson’s thrown for fewer than 250 yards in four straight games and he completed only nine passes in his last game versus the Seahawks.
7 DBs the majority of the game. Speed vs. power the secret sauce to slowing down the @Ravens. @Chargers S @DerwinJames explains LA’s victory @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/CRbTOptFjc
— Steve Wyche (@wyche89) January 6, 2019
The Chargers drew up the blue print on how to slow him down during last year’s playoffs and you can bet New England will deploy a similar strategy.
You Don’t Make Money Betting Against the Patriots
It’s always scary being on the opposite side of sharp action, but it’s even scarier to bet against Bill Belichick and Brady. The duo is 6-1 versus the Ravens in the regular season and given that the Pats average margin of victory is 23.6 points this season, only laying a field goal on the road seems like stealing money.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
