Despite Only Being a Half-Game Back in AFC West, Raiders’ Odds to Win the Division Still as Long as +450
- With wins in four of six outings, the Oakland Raiders have climbed to attractive +450 second-favorites to win the AFC West
- Raiders opened the season as a distant +2100 bet after winning just four games last season
- Kansas City Chiefs remain heavy -300 favorites, but have suffered losses in four of six outings
The Oakland Raiders continued to confound the naysayers with last Thursday’s 26-24 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. With the win, and Kansas City’s stunning loss in Tennessee on Sunday afternoon, the Raiders now sit just a half-game back of the Chiefs in the AFC West standings. But despite their recent strong play, and favorable upcoming matchups, Oakland continues to lag well behind the Chiefs in the odds to win the AFC West as a +450 second-favorite.
Odds to Win AFC West
| Team | Odds to Win AFC West |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -130 |
| Oakland Raiders | +185 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +800 |
| Denver Broncos | +1200 |
Odds taken on Nov. 11/19
Raiders Defying the Oddsmakers
Oakland continued its steady play on home turf in Week 10 with its victory over the Chargers, extending the team’s SU win streak at three games. The Raiders also continued to defy the oddsmakers with Sunday’s victory – their third outright win in their past five while pegged as underdogs. Two of those upset victories have come against divisional rivals. In addition to their Week 11 win over Los Angeles, the Raiders stunned the visiting Denver Broncos with a season-opening 24-16 as 3-point home underdogs, and have tallied wins over Indianapolis and Chicago, both while pegged as underdogs by six or more points.
FINAL: The @Raiders defeat the Chargers to improve to 5-4! #RaiderNation #LACvsOAK
(by @Lexus) pic.twitter.com/36qiRNcJZH
— NFL (@NFL) November 8, 2019
Oakland is poised to match its projected win total for the current campaign…when it hosts the beleaguered Cincinnati Bengals as lofty 10.5-point chalk in a Week 11 matchup at RingCentral Coliseum.
Pegged as a lengthy +2100 bet in the AFC West odds on opening day, the Raiders now sport a 5-4 record, surpassing their win total from all of last season. In addition, Oakland is poised to match its projected win total for the current campaign, set at 6 back in August, when it hosts the beleaguered Cincinnati Bengals as lofty 10.5-point chalk in a Week 11 matchup at RingCentral Coliseum.
Favorable Schedule Gives Raiders Nation Hope
The Bengals arrive in Oakland as the only win-less team remaining in the NFL, after suffering a crushing 49-13 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday that extends their overall SU losing streak to 11 games. The Raiders then follow up with a visit to New York in Week 12, where they take on the 2-7 New York Jets before traveling to Kansas City for a Week 13 showdown with the Chiefs.
Raiders remaining schedule. Doesn’t look nearly as daunting as it did entering the season given some of the situations these other squads find themselves in. pic.twitter.com/GWxZqDghHI
— ryan, a jerry jeudy fan (@StillRyanFive) November 8, 2019
Oakland’s December schedule also gives Raiders nation reason to be hopeful, with three of their final opponents currently sporting sub-.500 record. However, things look far less certain for the Chiefs as they look for answers after losing outright in four of their past six contests.
Mahomes’ Injury Fueling Chiefs Woes
The Chiefs remain the team to beat in the AFC West despite their current swoon, and sit perched as heavy -300 chalk to claim a fourth straight divisional crown. However, quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ injury woes have arisen as a major concern.
Look at this absolute nonsense by Mahomes here on 3rd and 2. Nothing open initially so he just buys all sorts of time and eventually finds Robinson while being tackled. pic.twitter.com/iFd2oboEbO
— Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) November 11, 2019
The reigning NFL MVP struggled throughout the first half of the campaign with a nagging ankle injury and missed two recent outings after suffering a gruesome knee injury in a 30-6 win in Denver in Week 7. Mahomes has made a speedy return to action, looking spectacular at times while tossing for 446 yards and three scores in Kansas City’s stunning 35-32 loss to Tennessee on Sunday. However, Mahomes also occasionally appeared to lack the pinpoint precision that has become his calling card, suggesting that he is still playing through significant injury.
Chiefs Face Pivotal Dates with Raiders, Pats & Bears
The Chiefs must also contend with a far tougher schedule than Oakland down the stretch. Following their head-to-head clash with the Raiders, the Chiefs travel to New England in Week 14 to face the Patriots, and must also endure a visit to Soldier Field for a date with the Chicago Bears in Week 16.
Updated AFC WEST Standings: pic.twitter.com/FY1xag35GE
— Jorge Alanis (@raider_al82) November 10, 2019
Kansas City clearly remains in the driver’s seat in the AFC West, holding a clear advantage in head-to-head meetings with the Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium, where Oakland has failed to earn a win since 2012.
But, with these two teams currently headed in different directions, the Raiders offer surprising value as a +450 bet to win the AFC West.
Picks: Raiders to win AFC West (+450)
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
