Upcoming Match-ups

Rams vs Packers Odds, Lines and Spread

Nick Krueger

by Nick Krueger in NFL Football

Updated Jan 18, 2021 · 2:01 PM PST

Jared Goff throwing the ball
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff in action against the Seattle Seahawks in an NFL wild-card playoff football game, Saturday, Jan. 9, 2021, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Scott Eklund)
  • The Green Bay Packers are 6.5-point favorites when they host the LA Rams on Saturday afternoon (FOX, 4:35 PM EST)
  • Aaron Rodgers has been on fire in his last two but goes up against one of the league’s top defenses
  • Read below for complete analysis and a pick on the game

Aaron Rodgers probably isn’t worried about whether or not the hot streak he was on to close out the regular season will continue this weekend against the Rams in the NFL Divisional Playoffs. Aaron Donald probably thinks of his matchup against the Packers as an opportunity rather than four quarters of survival on defense.

Determining which Aaron will be right is at the heart of making a play on Los Angeles and Green Bay on Saturday afternoon.

Rodgers finished with video game numbers over his last two games and Donald is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year for the third time in four years. Sportsbooks are expecting offense to win out, and the Packers are 6.5-point home favorites.

Los Angeles Rams vs Green Bay Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
LA Rams +6.5 +265 O 45.5 (-112)
Green Bay -6.5 -330 U 45.5 (-108)

Odds taken Jan. 15 at FanDuel

The Rodgers Buzz Saw

In the final two games of the regular season, at home against Tennessee and on the road at Chicago, Rodgers completed 40-of-49 passes for 471 yards, eight touchdowns, and just one interception.

Rodgers has been quite vocal this season at times about his disappointment in the offense’s performance. Following the Packers’ 35-16 drubbing of the Bears on January 3, Rodgers had more positive remarks about his health and his quality of play.

Over their last three games, the Packers have been a top-five team at converting on third downs, but the Rams have been equally good at shutting down opponents in those situations. In last week’s win against Seattle, Los Angeles held Russell Wilson completing just 40-percent of his passes and 174 yards through the air.

DK Metcalf was still able to come up with a couple of big plays against the Rams’ secondary, and Green Bay star receiver Davante Adams has had at least 115 yards and a touchdown in three of his last five games. Adams is going to have to play well because Green Bay’s receiver group is a bit banged-up.

Run The Ball, Stop The Pass

Goff had a miserable day against the Seahawks, but running back Cam Akers was there to pick up the slack. Goff has been playing through a thumb injury, but Akers finished with 131 yards and a touchdown against Seattle, but only had 97 yards rushing combined in the two games prior. Still, things are set up pretty well for the rookie, as the Packers are likely going to be without starting defensive lineman Kingsley Keke, who is in concussion protocol.

The Rams are fourth in rushing DVOA and on offense, while the Packers are ranked 18th in defensive DVOA against the run. Without Keke, things get dicier for Green Bay up front. Green Bay’s opponents have been running the ball for more yards and more often over its last three games.

LA’s defense is also fourth in defensive passing DVOA, which should instill some confidence from bettors that it can at least provide some resistance against Rodgers.

If It Ain’t Broke…

The Rams should come back with a pretty similar philosophy against the Packers that they had against Seattle. In cold weather against the best offense in the league, taking the air out of the ball might be the answer. Protecting Goff from imploding should also be a priority, but the Rams’ offensive line should be able to deal with Green Bay’s front seven.

The majority of money and tickets have come in on Green Bay, but head coach Matt LaFleur is 0-2 overall and against the spread following a bye week. The Rams should come out strong on defense early and might be able to break off some decent runs, but Goff is not 100-percent and it’s going to be cold. The total has already come down 1.5 points since it opened, but the under of 45.5 is still the most sensible play.

The Pick: Under 45.5 (-108)

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