Rodgers Takes Commanding MVP Odds Lead; Brady, Taylor Trail Following Week 16

• Aaron Rodgers’ Week 16 performance gives him a commanding lead in the NFL MVP odds
• Despite performing well in a win, Tom Brady slid back, joining Jonathan Taylor in a tie for second
• See the updated NFL MVP odds following Week 16

We’ve made all the jokes we can about how the new age of quarterbacks are so exciting, but it’s the old guard that’s still atop the 2021 NFL MVP odds.

Sometimes you just can’t beat experience.

Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been proving that all season long, and Week 16 was no different. The two remain atop the table, and it’ll take a massive performance from the field to prevent either taking home the hardware.

2021 NFL MVP Odds

Odds as of December 26th from FanDuel

Brady had been controlling his spot atop the 2021 NFL MVP odds for weeks, before Rodgers took over as the new number one last week. A strong Week 16 saw him pull away in significant fashion.

The rest of the field had varying degrees of success in a spread out Week 16. There were some shocking upsets, some expectedly dominant performances, and a few outings that featured a little of both.

Brady and Rodgers Control the Board

Brady had survived blips before, but getting shut out by the Saints last week was too much. Especially when Rodgers threw down a three-touchdown, 268 yard performance.

TB12 was clean against the Panthers on Sunday, but Rodgers was at his Christmas best, scoring almost at will.

Brady vs Rodgers: Week 16 Comparison

The schedules are mostly equal between the two. Brady gets the Jets and Panthers, while Rodgers gets the Vikings and Lions. But the health of their supporting casts is not equal.

Brady lost Chris Godwin for the year and played Week 16 without Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette. Tampa also has to work on getting Antonio Brown back into game shape, so they may be forced to morph offensively.

Rodgers or Brady – Who ya got? 🏆 pic.twitter.com/1fdOq9wPPO

— FanDuel (@FanDuel) December 22, 2021

Green Bay is in the driver’s seat when it comes to a first round bye in the NFC. Despite that, it’s very likely that the Packers, Buccaneers, LA Rams and Dallas Cowboys will be going full tilt all the way through the final week.

It’s possible the top seed in the NFC is taking home NFL MVP.

No TDs for Non-QBs Hurt NFL MVP Odds

This has been a safe space for non-QB supporters all season long. There was love for Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor’s big Week 11 got plenty of airtime.

While Taylor and Cooper Kupp have turned in dominant 2021s, their Week 16s left one thing to be desired.

Taylor vs Kupp: Week 16 Comparison

Admittedly this is an unfair standard, because regardless of not recording a TD, both are having historic years. But when you’re a receiver or a running back trying to hack it in a QB’s world? You’ve got to keep stacking TDs.

Taylor still has a remote shot at 2,000 yards, and he’s far enough off that if he gets it, that two week stretch will be impressive enough to cement his candidacy. Touchdowns or not.

But seeing his TD-streak stopped at 11 games definitely hurts.

The Colts are now 9-0 this season when Jonathan Taylor rushes for 100 yards, and 0-6 when he doesn't.

It's the latest into a season that a running back on an above .500 team has had his 100-yard rushing games match up perfectly with his team's wins and losses. pic.twitter.com/9IN7ZUhf2T

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 26, 2021

Kupp can also make up ground if he doesn’t find the endzone. At 132, he’s 17 receptions shy of tying the single-season record, and he’s averaging just under nine per game. If he can do that and break the receiving yards record, scores be damned.

Notable QB Performances: Week 16

While his number one wide receiver is still in contention, Stafford likely did himself in for good with his Week 16 numbers. The same can be said for Justin Herbert, who lost to the Texans.

Josh Allen is a name that carries a little intrigue, but he struggled with turnovers midseason and the dips in his performance may be a little too severe to overlook. Of the group above, Mahomes probably has the best chance of pulling off an upset, followed by Prescott.

If he turns in two more first halves like the one he had on Sunday night, then Dak can jump Mahomes.

Rodgers No Lock Atop NFL MVP Odds

Rodgers is locked in as a heavy favorite with a sizable gap between second place. But despite what the odds say, the Covid controversy from earlier in the season could have voters looking elsewhere.

While it’s unlikely the Bucs nab first place in the NFC, Brady is still leading the league in yards and touchdowns. And with the caveat of his age always in play, he’s a threat.

Taylor has stolen headlines since midseason, and his dominance can’t be overlooked. But his position will always factor in too.

Ultimately it comes down to risk factor. With both at +700, Brady is the safe bet. But if you want to be bold, go Taylor.