Russell Wilson Is Now Even-Money to Win 2020 NFL MVP – Is the Value Gone?

• Russell Wilson has dominated through five weeks, throwing 19 touchdown passes
• The Seahawks quarterback is nearly even money to take home his first career MVP title
• Read below to see if other players sporting good odds can overtake Wilson in the MVP race

Through eight years of his stellar career, Russell Wilson has never garnered even a single MVP vote, despite never missing a game and being at the helm for some very successful Seahawks teams. Through five games this season, however, he leads the NFL MVP Odds race as Seattle has raced out to their first 5-0 start in franchise history.

Wilson began the season with average odds of just below +1000 to win MVP, trailing only the last two winners Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. With a scintillating start that has seen him rack up 19 TD passes against just three picks, he’s now shot up to the favorite to land the trophy.

Is it too early to be going all-in on Wilson at near even money odds with 11 games still to play? Or is there another player worthwhile wagering on with better value?

2020 NFL MVP Odds

Odds taken October 12th from DraftKings

Seahawks Letting Russ Cook

Throughout the offseason, a brigade of NFL fans started a twitter campaign for Seattle to finally #LetRussCook. Head Coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer apparently finally got the message and they’ve allowed Wilson full control of the offense to unleash his potential.

Russell Wilson now has 30 game-winning drives since his debut in 2012, passing Matthew Stafford for the most in the NFL.

This is the 14th win by the Seahawks since the start of last season in a 1-possession game . No other team has more than 10. pic.twitter.com/O6LnJZY9ds

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 12, 2020

Wilson has the most TD passes (19), second most passing yards (1,502) and has the third highest completion percentage (72.8%) through the first five games this season.

The Seahawks pivot took control of the MVP lead after a sterling Week 3 performance against the Cowboys, where he lit them up for five TD passes and only strengthened his case with a thrilling come from behind victory against the Vikings with two fourth-down passes, including the winning score on Sunday Night Football.

ABSOLUTELY. MAGICAL.@DangeRussWilson to @dkm14 at JUST the right time!! #Seahawks | NBC pic.twitter.com/KlWBNrqYmY

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) October 12, 2020

Seahawks Schedule Pretty Favorable

Of their remaining 11 contests, Seattle will only face three teams that currently have winning records, albeit two of these teams they’ll play twice. They have their remaining six NFC West divisional games to play, with the Rams, who always give Russell fits, and Arizona twice being games that he may find it a bit tougher, not to mention a 49ers team that’s been a thorn in Seattle’s side.

A matchup with the Buffalo Bills early in November is another game to watch which also features Josh Allen, who’s currently fourth in MVP Odds.

Leaders in passing yards on 10+ yard throws:

1. Dak Prescott – 857
2. Josh Allen – 818
3. Russell Wilson – 681
4. Tom Brady – 644 pic.twitter.com/kcNKSjygmH

— PFF (@PFF) October 6, 2020

Wilson has an incredible cupcake schedule in weeks 12 through 15, where he’ll face the Eagles, Giants, Jets and Washington, where he surely will rack up touchdowns in droves.

The issue with going all-in on him at his current +100 odds is that Aaron Rodgers has also had a stellar start to the campaign and Josh Allen has been turning heads for an undefeated Bills team. For that reason, I’d be hesitant with betting on the star quarterback at his current price, instead hoping the other big time weapons challenging him also sling it, which would cause his odds to rise slightly.

Josh Allen Presents Tremendous Value

The Buffalo Bills signal caller has taken a huge leap in his third NFL season, tossing 12 TD’s and also using his legs for three scores with just one interception. He began the season with +3500 odds to win the MVP, but now sees them at +1100 to be tops in the NFL. Now that he has a legit #1 wide receiver in Stefon Diggs, everybody else slots down the lineup, making John Brown and Cole Beasley the perfect complement of weapons for Allen.

Just your daily reminder Josh Allen is really good at football pic.twitter.com/6QeVlv76Vi

— James Phillips (@jphillips4793) October 10, 2020

Allen still has four primetime games left on his schedule where he can showcase his talents which undoubtedly stick in the minds of prospective voters. His ascension to being one of the games best QB’s at such a young age and in a division which is right there for the taking in the AFC East provides him a great opportunity to leapfrog Wilson, who will find it tough to continue racking up victories against a stout NFC West.

Pick: Josh Allen (+1100)