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Russell Wilson Overtakes Patrick Mahomes as Favorite In Latest NFL MVP Odds

Jake Mitchell

by Jake Mitchell in NFL Football

Updated Apr 8, 2020 · 11:33 AM PDT

Seahawks Wilson
Russell Wilson is your new favorite for NFL MVP. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr).
  • Russell Wilson has replaced Pat Mahomes as the favorite in the NFL MVP odds
  • Wilson was +2700 prior to Week 4
  • This is the first time Mahomes is not the favorite in 2019

After being at the top for the entire offseason, and becoming the odds-on leader after Week 4, Patrick Mahomes is no longer the favorite in the NFL MVP odds.

Instead, he’s been replaced by Seattle’s Russell Wilson, who now leads the field at +200.

Odds to Win NFL MVP

Player Pos Team Odds
Russell Wilson QB SEA +200
Patrick Mahomes QB KC +250
Christian McCaffrey RB CAR +900
Aaron Rodgers QB GB +900
Deshaun Watson QB HOU +900
Tom Brady QB NE +1200
Jimmy Garoppolo QB SF +1200
Lamar Jackson QB BAL +1800
Carson Wentz QB PHI +2000
Dak Prescott QB DAL +2800

Odds taken on 10/15/19.

Wilson reached as high as +2800 before the regular season, and only skyrocketed to the top over the course of the last three weeks. Prior to Week 4, he sat at +2700, before cutting those odds down to +1800 with a nearly perfect game against Arizona.

It was a similar story the next week, as a four touchdown performance in a Thursday night win against the Rams brought Wilson’s odds to +640. He became the favorite this week with a third great game in a row, as he led an amazing comeback on the road at Cleveland.

Sophomore Slump for Mahomes?

Part of the reason that Wilson has taken a lead in the MVP odds is the difficult patch that Patrick Mahomes has hit in the last few weeks.

Against Detroit, he completed 57.1% of his throws and never found the end zone. The next week against the Colts, his completion percentage dropped to 56.4%, and he threw only 1 touchdown pass.

On Sunday against Houston, the completion percentage again dropped, this time to 54.3%, but he did find the end zone three times, along with an interception.

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There’s good and bad in the numbers for Mahomes. He isn’t playing poorly, but by no means is he lighting the world on fire like he did last year. Unfortunately for him, that stretch comes at a time when Wilson is.

Seattle runs the ball at the fourth highest rate in the league, so head-to-head, Mahomes is certain to compile more yards than Wilson this year. However, every other metric leans in Wilson’s favor. He completes a higher percent of throws than Mahomes, has a 12.8 point advantage in passer rating, and Wilson has yet to throw a single interception in 2019.

Patrick Mahomes vs Russell Wilson 2019 Stats

Patrick Mahomes
VS
Russell Wilson
2,104 Passing Yards 1,704
14/1 Touchdowns/Interceptions 14/0
111.9 Passer Rating 124.7
63.9% Completion Percentage 72.5%

Who’s the Better Bet?

Wilson is playing about as well as a quarterback can right now, and it’s been reflected in the odds. It seems that every week Wilson has another great performance in leading his team to a win. However, buying low on Mahomes is the way to go here.

In year two, Mahomes has hit his first real road block. It’s been a difficult stretch of three weeks, but one rough patch doesn’t negate just how special he can be.

Despite losing on Sunday, the offense looked better than it had in the previous two weeks. A big factor in that was the return of wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs have a good group of weapons, but none is more of a game changer than Hill.

With his best weapon back, and plenty of primetime and big-game opportunities (4 remaining primetime games, as well as a Sunday afternoon trip to New England), there is plenty of time for Mahomes to regain his rhythm.

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