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San Francisco, as 5.5-Point Favorites, Seeing 58% of Money in Week 8 Matchup vs Carolina

Jake Mitchell

by Jake Mitchell in NFL Football

Updated Mar 30, 2020 · 4:05 PM PDT

Kyle Allen
Kyle Allen and the Panthers will try and hand the 49ers their first loss of the season. Photo from @Sportsgriduk (Twitter).
  • The 49ers (6-0) will play host to the Panthers (4-2) in a huge Sunday afternoon matchup
  • Carolina is 4-0 ATS since Kyle Allen took over at quarterback for an injured Cam Newton
  • San Francisco is in the top 10 in the NFL in both pass and rush defense

The NFC’s only remaining undefeated team, the 49ers, travel to play Carolina for a big Sunday matchup. San Francisco has yet to be defeated all year, and the Panthers are 4-0 against the spread when Kyle Allen starts, so this has the makings of a great contest.

Panthers vs 49ers Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Carolina Panthers +5.5 (-115) +195 O 42 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers -5.5 (-105) -235 U 42 (-110)

*Odds from 10/26/19

Sharps are all over the 49ers, while the public leans toward Kyle Allen and the Panthers. 50.2% of against the spread bets are currently on Carolina, but 58% of against the spread money sits on San Francisco. The sharp money has come in heavy on the 49ers, with 77.5% of it coming in on Kyle Shanahan’s team.

Will Kyle Allen’s Streak be Snapped?

In place of an injured Cam Newton, Kyle Allen has led this team to tremendous success. They’re 4-0, both straight up and against the spread since he took over, and his numbers have been strong. He’s completing 65.6% of his passes, and has put up 225.3 yards per game, with a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and a 106.6 passer rating.

However, this streak has come against some of the league’s weakest opposition. His opponents have ranked 32nd (TB), 29th (HOU), 25th (ARI), and 17th (JAX) in pass defense. The 49ers, meanwhile, have the league’s first-ranked pass defense, allowing only 133.5 yards allowed per game through the air.

For the Panthers’ offense, simply just leaning on Christian McCaffrey and the run won’t be a simple fix. With only 90 rushing yards allowed per game, the 49ers also have the NFL’s eighth-best rush defense. Allen and the Panthers have been on a nice run in recent weeks, but on Sunday, they’ll meet their toughest opponent since the Newton injury.

Side With the Sharps?

At home, San Francisco welcomes a Carolina defense that fits perfectly into what the 49ers want to do. Shanahan’s team has the 2nd ranked rush offense in the league, averaging 172.7 yards per game. The Panther rush defense is only the 23rd-best in the league.

Meanwhile, the Panthers speciality, defending the pass, is a part of the game that the 49ers do well, but don’t rely on. Jimmy Garoppolo is completing 68.3% of his throws, averaging only 219 yards per game, and he has a 90.8 passer rating. He’s been a reliable quarterback, but this running game is so good that this offense doesn’t have to take many chances.

Against the Panthers, the 49ers will be up against a defense that matches the offensive gameplan almost perfectly.

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