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SBD’s Experts Offer Their Super Bowl 55 Picks

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Updated Feb 6, 2021 · 11:35 AM PST

Patrick Mahomes celebrates winning Super Bowl 54
FILE - In this Feb. 2, 2020, file photo, Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes, left, and Tyrann Mathieu celebrate after defeating the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL Super Bowl 54 football game in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip, File)
  • Super Bowl 55 kicks off Sunday, February 7 at 6:30pm ET
  • How many of SportsBettingDime.com’s experts are siding with the favored Chiefs?
  • See their picks for the game and their favorite props below

Can you believe we’re here? It seems like just yesterday we were discussing a possible Week 18 of the NFL season to makeup for all the potential COVID postponements we might see in the regular season. Yet, here we are, preparing for Super Bowl 55 to take place on its scheduled Sunday, February 7th, 6:30pm ET timeslot.

The game features the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the Bucs becoming the first team to ever play in a home Super Bowl. The Chiefs are listed as three-point favorites right now, and the total is at 55.5 or 56, depending where you look.

But before you lock in those Super Bowl bets, check out who the experts at SportsBettingDime.com are taking, as well as their favorite traditional props and fun props to bet.

Super Bowl 55 Picks

SBD Expert Pick
Matt McEwan Chiefs -3 (-113)
Ryan Metivier Chiefs to win (-159)
Mitch Robson Buccaneers to win (+144)
Ryan Sura Buccaneers to win (+144)
Pete Apostolopoulos Buccaneers to win the first half (+125)

Matt McEwan’s Super Bowl Pick

  • Chiefs -3 (-113)

Although my SBD score predicting formula is siding with the Buccaneers to win this one, I have to fade it. The Chiefs are a much different team than Tampa Bay has faced in the NFC side of the playoffs. To get here, the Buccaneers beat a 7-9 Football Team (by eight points), the Saints by ten with New Orleans turning the ball over four times, and came out of Lambeau thanks to some head-scratching decisions by the Packers.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been dominant when Patrick Mahomes has been under center. They went 14-1 this season when their starters played, were hammering the Browns before Mahomes left the game, and made the Bills look like they don’t belong.

Another team they really made look bad this year was the Bucs in Week 12. Kansas City was up 17-0 before the second quarter started, and Tyreek Hill had torched the Tampa Bay defense for 200+ yards in the first quarter alone.

Tom Brady and company would score two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make the score look much closer (27-24) than the game actually was. Kansas City didn’t even play a complete game in that one either – they kicked a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the one-yard-line, turned the ball over in the red zone, and had a few bad drops. They’ll be firing on all cylinders on Sunday and won’t take their foot off the gas early again.

Over the past two seasons, the Chiefs have only been three-point favorites or worse five times. They’re 5-0 straight up and against the spread in those games. Also, the team who wins the Super Bowl is 46-6-2 against the spread. This isn’t a spread to fear, either.

Ryan Metivier’s Super Bowl Pick

  • Chiefs ML (-159)

A month ago we were asked for Super Bowl predictions. After writing up a blurb on what I thought looked like an obvious pick of the Chiefs winning, I talked myself into it being too obvious and completely re-wrote it predicting the Packers.

So this time, I’m not going to overthink it. The Chiefs have been the best team all season and have won 25 of their past 27 games.

Brady and the Bucs are really good. But they were leading the Football Team by just two points heading into the fourth quarter in the Wild Card, were aided by four Saints turnovers in the Divisional Round, and were still tied heading into the fourth in that game.

A win in Green Bay over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers is great. Though Brady showed some warts with three interceptions and the Packers basically threw up the white flag with terrible play-calling decisions to end the game. It may not be a huge payout, but I’ll take an approximate 60-percent ROI in four hours every day.

Mitch Robson’s Super Bowl Pick

  • Buccaneers ML (+144)

The only two ways I could see you betting this game from a traditional standpoint are: (1) Chiefs -3 ,or (2) Bucs moneyline. I’ll be riding with Tompa Bay, as I’ve done all postseason, long to come out on top.

The Chiefs being without both starting tackles is going to be legitimate issues against the Bucs’ front four, which should be foaming at the mouth to pin their ears back and get after Mahomes. Todd Bowles will also likely rough up Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill at the line of scrimmage – something the Bills ignored and failed to do – to limit their free runs over the middle and into the secondary.

With Antoine Winfield returning in the back end as well, I think the Bucs defense does enough to keep the game in range for Brady to go on a signature game-winning drive, capturing his seventh Super Bowl title.

Ryan Sura’s Super Bowl Pick

  • Buccaneers ML (+144)

Well, apparently Father Time doesn’t apply to Tom Brady because he comes into Super Bowl 55 playing great football with an unbelievable supporting cast. Moreover, the Buccaneers are playing in their home stadium, which is the first time this has ever happened in a Super Bowl.

The value on Tom Brady winning this Super Bowl is unbeatable at +144. I wouldn’t bother with the spread as the last seven Super Bowls have been decided by four points or more. If the Bucs can find a way to apply pressure on Mahomes early and often, I believe the Bucs could run away with this one.

Pete Apostolopoulos’ Super Bowl Pick

  • Buccaneers 1H ML (+125)

I do like the Bucs to win the game, but am a little more confident in taking them to win the first half. Tampa held the halftime lead in nine of 14 wins (including playoffs), while KC has played from behind often the last two seasons.

With a true home field advantage, and a lot less covid and injury distractions leading up to kickoff, I think the Buccaneers show up ready to play. I assume the Bucs to be motivated to start better after falling behind 20-7 at the half during the first meeting in Week 12.

Best Prop Bets for Super Bowl 55

SBD Expert Traditional Prop Fun Prop
Matt McEwan Sammy Watkins over 36.5 receiving yards (-106) Travis Kelce to win Super Bowl MVP (+1400)
Ryan Metivier Highest scoring half = 2nd (-110) Tom Brady’s age mentioned before his 10th Super Bowl (+145)
Mitch Robson Cameron Brate over 30.5 receiving yards (-110) Any field goal / extra point to hit crossbar or upright (+375)
Ryan Sura Scotty Miller anytime touchdown (+425) Coin Toss = Tails (-103)
Pete Apostolopoulos Patrick Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions (+140) Coin Toss = Tails (-103)

Matt McEwan’s Best Super Bowl Props Bets

  • Traditional Prop: Sammy Watkins Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-106)

If you’re going to tail me here, be sure your sportsbook grades props no action when a player does not dress. Watkins is officially listed as questionable for the Super Bowl, so you want to make sure you get your money back if he sits.

If he does play, I like Watkins to have a big one. The former first-round pick has been battling through injuries all season, only playing in ten games, with his last appearance coming in Week 16. When he’s on the field, though, he has produced – not huge numbers, but consistently decent numbers.

In the eight games this season where Watkins played more than 58% of the offensive snaps, he has averaged 48.2 receiving yards per game and surpassed 36 yards in six of them.

Tampa Bay’s focus on defense will be to ensure they don’t get torched by Tyreek Hill again, which will keep a corner and safety occupied on most plays, and try to slow down Travis Kelce. The result will be a lot of room for Watkins to work.

  • Fun Prop: Travis Kelce to Win Super Bowl MVP (+1400)

We’ve seen eight repeat Super Bowl champions in the past, with the Chiefs looking to become the eighth team to win back-to-back titles – the Steelers won two consecutive Super Bowls on two different occasions. Only two of those repeat champions had the same Super Bowl MVP in both games: (1) Bart Starr in Super Bowls 1 and 2, and (2) Terry Bradshaw in Super Bowls 13 and 14.

The most recent back-to-back champ was the Patriots in 2004 and 2005, where Tom Brady won MVP in the first year, but Deion Branch won it in the second.

Quarterbacks absolutely dominate the regular season NFL MVP award, but they don’t have the same stranglehold on the Super Bowl MVP lately. In the last seven years, it’s been won by a quarterback four times, last year being one of them – Patrick Mahomes.

With Mahomes listed as short as short as -106, I’m seeing a ton of value in Travis Kelce at +1400. In KC’s two playoff games, Kelce is averaging 113.5 receiving yards and 1.5 touchdowns on 10.5 receptions per game. If he comes close to these numbers on Sunday, and the Chiefs win (of course), he’ll be in the discussion for Super Bowl MVP. His chances of doing so are much better than 6.7%, the implied probability from +1400 odds, in my opinion.

You also know Andy Reid probably his three different formations/looks to get Kelce one of those underhand passes near the goal line.

Ryan Metivier’s Best Super Bowl Prop Bets

  • Traditional Prop: 2nd Half is Highest Scoring (-110)

If only we had some long-term data for some of the players in this Super Bowl. Oh wait, Tom Brady is making his tenth appearance in the big game. In his previous nine Super Bowls, had you bet on the second half being higher scoring you’d be 7-1-1. Mahomes has only been there once, (last year) and that too saw a higher scoring second half.

Additionally, over any Super Bowl in the past ten years, the second half has been higher scoring at a rate of 6-3-1. Some books also include overtime in the second half of these bets, giving you the chance for a little bonus time to be on your side too.

  • Fun Prop: Tom Brady’s Age Said Before His 10th Super Bowl (+145)

Obviously this could go either way, and each stat is equally impressive in its own right. But from a value perspective, you can have +145 on “age” versus -190 on “10 Super Bowls”. To me the value lies with age.

Brady is now the oldest player to ever play in the Super Bowl. And I’m sitting here trying to envision a possible conversation between Tony Romo and Jim Nantz and can easily hear something like, “43-year-old Tom Brady is now playing in his tenth Super Bowl”. That’s all we need to cash it.

Mitch Robson’s Best Super Bowl Prop Bets

  • Traditional Prop: Cameron Brate Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Cameron Brate has been a favorite target of Brady through the postseason run, with at least five targets in each game and going over 50 yards receiving in two of the three.

With defenses, and specifically Tyrann Mathieu in this case, likely to have their hands full with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, I like Brate to go over his relatively small total here. Considering the Chiefs volatility against opposing tight ends all season, +240 for Brate to score any time is also worth a look.

  • Fun Prop: “Doink Special” – Any FG/XP Attempt to Hit Crossbar or Upright (+325)

Harrison Butker has been anything but a lock on extra points this season, going 48/54, and had been shaky prior to the AFC title game. Ryan Succop has also missed five extra points this season – you can root for chaos and make a few bucks by hitting yes on this one.

Ryan Sura’s Best Super Bowl Props Bets

  • Traditional Prop: Scotty Miller Anytime TD (+425)

This is a little bit of a longshot, but I have all the faith in the world in Mr. Miller. He made a big-time play against the Packers to take a 21-10 lead going into halftime in the NFC Championship game.

With Antonio Brown’s knee in question for Sunday’s game, this could leave an opening for Scotty Miller to make a big play in Super Bowl 55. There’s always one unsung hero in Super Bowls (i.e. David Tyree) that makes a game-changing play. Why not Mr. Miller?

  • Fun Prop: Coin Toss Outcome Is Tails (-103)

This prop is up to pure chance, but there are certain things to look at when deciding heads or tails. The coin toss has landed on tails in five of the last seven Super Bowls. So, historically speaking, tails would be the better bet.

I also took this to a real-life situation and flipped a coin ten times myself. Tails prevailed seven out of the ten times, which means we’re rolling with the coin toss to land on tails Sunday night in Tampa.

Pete Apostolopoulos’ Best Super Bowl Props Bets

  • Traditional Prop: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions (+140)

Patrick Mahomes is undoubtedly the best quarterback on the planet right now, but I see him throwing at least one pick in this game. Tampa  Bay’s defense has five interceptions in three playoff games, and the third-most interceptions this season with 15.

With a really thin offensive line blocking for him, and a loaded defensive line ready to pounce, I see Mahomes being forced into a mistake at some point on Sunday. Mahomes also threw two interceptions in last year’s Super Bowl.

  • Fun Prop: Coin Toss Outcome Is Tails (-103)

Eight of the last 15 have been tails, so I’m fading the “50-50” crowd. After all, tails never fails, right?

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