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Texans Open as 4-Point Favorites Over Colts on Thursday Night Football in Week 12

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 1:29 PM PDT

Deshaun Watson rolling out to pass
Sportsbooks have established the Houston Texans as four-point favorites over the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday Night Football in Week 12. Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire.
  • The Houston Texans are four-point favorites over the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday Night Football in Week 12 
  • Both the Colts and Texans are 6-4 this season
  • Indy holds the tiebreaker on Houston atop the AFC South thanks to a 30-23 win over the Texans in Week 8

Deep in the heart of Texas, oddsmakers are expecting that the Houston Texans will buck the odds and break the trend as they play host to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12 of the NFL schedule.

The sportsbook has established the Texans as the four-point chalk in the opening line for Thursday’s clash between these AFC South rivals.

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Indianapolis Colts OFF +4 (-115) Over 46.5 (-112)
Houston Texans OFF -4 (-105) Under 46.5 (-108)

Odds taken Nov. 17.

Both the Colts and Texans are 2-2 straight up in their last four games.

Colts Have Dominated Texans

If anything, logic would suggest that this line will begin to move in Indy’s favor.  Head-to-head, the Colts have dominated the Texans. Indianapolis has won three in a row from Houston, including a 30-23 verdict earlier this season at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Overall, Indy has won five of six, and that includes the last three at Houston’s NRG Stadium. The Colts are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against the Texans and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Houston.

Indianapolis is also 6-0 ATS the last six times facing an AFC South opponent.

Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett, injured in a Week 9 loss to Pittsburgh, showed no ill-effects in Sunday’s 33-13 rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Brissett was 15-of-24 through the air for 148 yards and one touchdown. He also ran for a five-yard TD in the third quarter.

Ravens Provide Texans No Shortage Of Problems

If this was the week where Houston QB Deshaun Watson made his MVP case in a head-to-head showdown with Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens, it appears that ship has sailed. The Ravens demolished Houston 41-7.

Watson finished 18-of-29 for a paltry 169 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and one lost fumble. He was sacked six times, the third time that’s happened this season. Among NFL QBs, only Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston (36) and Daniel Jones (32) of the New York Giants have been slammed into the field turf more often than Watson (31).

Houston’s offense was held to 4.1 yards per play.

Indy Running Out Of Running Backs

The one downer from Sunday’s Colts win was the loss of running back Marlon Mack to a broken hand. Mack is fifth in the NFL in rushing with 862 yards.

Sunday, both Mack (109) and Jonathan Williams (116) rambled for more than 100 yards on the ground. That’s just the fourth time in franchise history the Colts have seen a pair of backs top the century mark in the same game.

It’s also vital that Williams maintains that level of performance. After Mack, Jordan Wilkins is Indy’s #2 rusher (165 yards). But he was out Sunday due to an ankle injury. Wilkins hasn’t practiced in a week and seems unlikely to be ready for Thursday.

Cornerback Rock Ya-Sin, who had six tackles (five solo and one for a loss) and one interception Sunday was also injured and his status for Thursday is uncertain.

Ya-Sin was replacing Pierre Desir, who was out with a hamstring ailment.

Must Win For Texans

Indy holds both the head-to-head (1-0) and division record (3-0 vs 2-1) tiebreakers over Houston. If the Texans want to win the AFC South, this is a game that they must absolutely have.

But the Texans are a dismal 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games vs AFC South opposition, and just 1-3 at home ATS this season.

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