Upcoming Match-ups

Best Thursday Night Football Props for Week 7 Broncos vs Cardinals

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NFL Football

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 6:43 PM PDT

Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald talking to an official.
Larry Fitzgerald and the Arizona offense have not strung together three straight scores all season. Can bettors use that to their advantage on TNF? Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License].
  • NFL Week 7 starts tomorrow with Broncos vs Cardinals on Thursday Night Football. 
  • There’s no sugar coating this one. It’s a bad game between two bad teams. 
  • But bad teams can still make you money! Get the three prop bets we are taking in tomorrow’s TNF game.

The NFL’s primetime slate has been pretty stacked so far, including instant classics like Jets/Browns and Vikings/Rams on Thursday Night Football. That trend is coming to an abrupt halt in Week 7 as the Denver Broncos (2-4, 0-2 away) visit the Arizona Cardinals (1-5, 0-2 home) at State Farm Stadium (8:20 PM ET, Oct. 18th).

The teams have combined for just one win in their last eight games and are a combined -64 in scoring differential on the year. To top it off, the Broncos are winless on the road and the Cardinals are winless at home. If you want to know which team will break its goose egg, check out the full Broncos vs Cardinals betting preview here.

If you want an analysis of the game within the game, stay right where you are as I scrutinize the three best prop bets for TNF. (Shameless brag: hopefully you followed my advice in Eagles/Giants last week as I finished $53.48 (.53 units) in the black.)

Prop #1: Neither Team Will Score 3 Straight Times

Will there be 3 straight scores by either team? Odds
YES -185
NO +160

Both of these defenses have given up three straight scores on multiple occasions this year. However, Arizona’s offense has yet to score three straight times, and Denver’s offense has only done it once. That was all the way back in Week 2 at home against Oakland, and the third score came on a field goal with six seconds left in the game. (See clip below; pardon the Spanish.)

The O/U for tomorrow’s game is at a low 42. This is going to be a defensive battle and it’s pretty likely that neither team scores more than four times period. That seriously attenuates the possibility of one team scoring three times in a row.

Prop #2: No Successful 4th-Down Conversion

Will there be a successful 4th-down conversion? Odds
YES -200
NO +170

Combined, the Broncos and Cardinals have only gone for it on 4th down 12 times this year (7 for Denver, 5 for Arizona). The Broncos have converted three of those attempts (42%), while the Cards have converted just one (20%).

That’s four successful 4th-down conversions in 12 games.

The Cardinals were also blanked on 3rd and 4th down, combined, last week.

Again, this is likely to be a low-scoring affair and both coaches will (make that, “should”) be focused on winning the battle for field position unless/until they are in desperation mode. When that times comes, I like the defenses’ chances of holding the fort on 4th-and-whatever.

Prop #3: Cardinals Score Fewer Than 1.5 Field Goals

Total Cardinals field goals Odds
Over 1.5 field goals -130
Under 1.5 field goals +110

Arizona kicker Phil Dawson has made two field goals all year on just four attempts. Both were from inside 30 yards.

The team has little confidence in the 43-year-old, especially after his 1/3 performance against Seattle in Week 4.

YouTube video

Why is the UNDER at plus-money? Because the Broncos have given up multiple field goals in five straight games. The Cardinals’ 31st-ranked offense (per DVOA) could easily stall out inside the 20 multiple times in this game. But this is more of a toss-up by my math, so I’ll take the value on the UNDER.

Author Image