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Tom Brady’s 2019 NFL MVP Odds Listed at 5-1 Following Week 1; Is There Value?

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Updated Mar 30, 2020 · 4:20 PM PDT

Tom Brady
Can Tom Brady win NFL MVP at 42 years old? Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr).
  • Tom Brady had 341 passing yards with three touchdowns in Week 1
  • Brady had just three 300-yard passing games last season
  • Brady finished his 2018 campaign seventh in passing yards and 10th in touchdowns

The New England Patriots just beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 33-3 in Week 1, and with the impending of Antonio Brown, the team’s offense could turn up a notch.

With the Patriots off to a flying start and a cupcake schedule upcoming, it begs the question: is Tom Brady worth a bet on the NFL MVP odds given that this team will be in contention?

2020 NFL MVP Odds

Player Odds
Patrick Mahomes +300
Tom Brady +500
Lamar Jackson +1000
Aaron Rodgers +1200
Carson Wentz +1200
Deshaun Watson +1400
Drew Brees +1400
Dak Prescott +1600
Baker Mayfield +2000
Philip Rivers +2500
Russell Wilson +2500

*Odds taken 09/11/19

Brady Impressive On Sunday Night Football

It’s hard to believe the Brady is now 42 years of age because he’s showing no signs of slowing down. He was fantastic in the opener as he was 24-of-36 for 341 yards, three touchdowns without an interception. If you were worried about a changing Patriots offense, the retirement of Rob Gronkowski or Father Time catching up to him, worry no more.

Brady was precise on almost all of his throws, showing no effect of age or deterioration. Josh Gordon looked strong with three catches, 73 yards and a touchdown and Phillip Dorsett, who had just 290 receiving yards last season, had 95 and a pair of touchdowns in this game.

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With Antonio Brown joining the team at some point (who is practicing as of Monday despite an ongoing civil suit) and the stable of backs and receivers all healthy, a fully engaged Patriots offense is terrifying.

Schedule Looks Like A Breeze

New England should have an absolute cakewalk through the first half of the season. After easily disposing of the Steelers – a team many thought might be playoff-worthy – the Patriots won’t really face anything that will challenge them until the second half of the season.

Up next for New England are games at the Miami Dolphins, versus the New York Jets, at the Buffalo Bills, at the Washington Redskins, versus the New York Giants, at the Jets and versus the Cleveland Browns. They’ll be favored in every game and might be undefeated by the end of this stretch.

After that, they’ll play at Baltimore, at Philadelphia, home to Dallas, at Houston and home to Kansas City. However, this is one heck of a breeze where Brady can pile up the stats.

Will Brady Have The Stats?

The challenge with the MVP award is Brady is likely to need jaw-dropping numbers to win it. I’m not sure that he’ll have the numbers to pull it off. He did have 341 passing yards and three touchdowns on Sunday but looking back to last season, he had just three 300+ yard games. He only threw for three or more touchdowns in a game six times.

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Brady had what figures to be among his best numbers on Sunday but consider that five other quarterbacks threw for more yards than him and eight quarterbacks threw for at least three touchdowns on Sunday. I just don’t see Brady having the overall numbers to get there.

What’s The Best Bet?

Brady’s in the running but I would start to consider guys like Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott for favorable NFL MVP odds if you’re looking for a long shot that might connect. Brady will have a good year but he was seventh in passing yards last season and 10th in touchdowns. He’s 42 years old and they aren’t going to overwork him.

That being the case, I’d look towards the aforementioned two or Patrick Mahomes, who looks like he’ll put up video game numbers again this season. He had 378 passing yards and three touchdowns against a good Jacksonville defense and they mostly called off the dogs in the second half. He’ll be putting up similar numbers each week.

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