Tua Still Favored to Be Second Quarterback Selected in NFL Draft – Does Herbert Offer Value?
- Bookmakers are still listing Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa as the odds-on -210 favorite to be the second quarterback selected in the 2020 NFL Draft
- Is there any value in wagering on Oregon’s Justin Herbert at +145?
- Analysis of all the odds and best bets can be found in the following story
Joe Burrow is Hertz. Despite being banged up, Tua Tagovailoa remains Avis. So where does that leave Justin Herbert?
It was Avis that famously launched an ad campaign suggesting as the #2 rental car company to Hertz, they needed to try harder.
In Tagovailoa’s case, he might need to try harder in order to stay #2.
Bookmakers view Heisman Trophy winner Burrow of LSU as the chalk to be the first QB selected when the NFL Draft gets underway. It will be a shocking development if Burrow doesn’t go first overall to the Cincinnati Bengals.
After that, the oddsmakers still see Alabama’s Tagovailoa being next in line. He’s the odds-on favorite to be the second QB off the draft board at a betting line of -210.
Second QB Selected in 2020 NFL Draft Odds
| Quarterback | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | -210 |
| Justin Herbert | +145 |
| Jordan Love | +2200 |
| Joe Burrow | +10000 |
| Jacob Eason | +30000 |
| Jake Fromm | +30000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +30000 |
| Anthony Gordon | +75000 |
| James Morgan | +75000 |
| Nate Stanley | +75000 |
Odds taken April 23rd.
Oregon’s Herbert is the third betting choice at +145.
Tagovailoa Still on Top
Despite plenty of speculation that he could slide on draft day, Tagovailoa’s stance as #2 remains stellar in the eyes of the bookmakers. In fact, his betting line has improved.
Originally, Tua was -180 to be the second QB drafted. Interestingly, though, Herbert’s odds have also shortened. He was at +150 originally in this betting market.
Who’s going to draft Tua Tagovailoa ? pic.twitter.com/7ORTiejza4
— Alabama DieHards (@AlabamaDieHards) April 23, 2020
One factor that’s been made abundantly clear in this contest is that it is now a two-QB race. Utah’s Jordan Love was originally the +500 third betting choice in this market. He’s still at #3 but his odds have faded to +2200.
In SBD’s latest mock draft, Tagovailoa is listed to go fifth overall to the Miami Dolphins. Herbert is pegged in the #6 slot to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Why Tua Might Slide
If all things were equal, NFL scouts and executives insist this would be an open and shut case. Tagovailoa would be the choice.
Football people view Tagovailoa as the safer pick. His fundamentals and his footwork are top notch. He’s viewed as being more NFL ready right now than Herbert. Scouts love his mobiity, his passing accuracy and his football acumen.
A few Tua Tagovailoa stats:
He was the most efficient QB in CFB history with a 199.4 career passer efficiency.
He has the best career TD-INT ratio (7.91, 87 TDs-to-11 INTs) in FBS history with min of 70 pass TDs.
He has the best QBR (93.5) & YPA (10.88) since at least 2004.
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) April 22, 2020
However, it’s not that simple. Tua’s 2019 season was ended in November when he suffered a hip dislocation in a game against Mississippi State.
His recovery from that injury left Tagovailoa unable to display his physical tools at the NFL Combine. The outbreak of COVID-19 prevented NFL teams from working out Tua individually.
While all indications are that his hip has healed nicely and won’t currently be an issue, might teams be scared off by an uncertain long-term prognosis, since their medical staffs weren’t able to assess for themselves?
The Case for Herbert
Herbert is a big QB (6-6 1/4, 236 pounds) with an equally powerful throwing arm. Oregon’s offense wasn’t anywhere near as complicated as an NFL scheme. Herbert, though, is viewed as possessing the football IQ to make the necessary adjustment to the NFL game.
Justin Herbert, an #NFLDraft2020 GIF thread.
Y’all realize this is a 6’6” 240 dual threat QB? pic.twitter.com/6u9BHp65VV
— GoDucksGraphics (@GoDucksGraphics) April 23, 2020
Statisically, he shines brightly. Herbert completed 64 percent of his passes for 10,543 yards and 95 touchdowns with 23 interceptions in 44 games, of which 42 were starts. He led Oregon to a Rose Bowl win earlier this year. Herbert was named MVP of the Senior Bowl.
Experts Like Herbert
Seven of 12 NFL executives polled by NFL.com insisted that they like Herbert ahead of Tagovailoa. Tua’s Wonderlic score at the NFL Combine raised some issues earlier this week. While his was a significantly lower score than Herbert, it wasn’t as bad as initially reported.
So this is actually correct. I'm told Oregon QB Justin Herbert did score a 39 on the Wonderlic at the combine in Indy. Here are a few more QB scores from Indy that were higher than reported …
Jake Luton: 33.
Brian Lewerke: 30.
Jalen Hurts: 21.
Tua Tagovailoa: 19. https://t.co/jg78XFYGtd— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) April 18, 2020
Every draft year, some player that’s highly touted begins to slide. Could Tagovailoa be that guy this year?
Most mock drafts slot Tua in at #5 to the Dolphins. But of late, there’s speculation that Miami, with four first-round picks, may opt to take a tackle at #5.
If the Dolphins take a QB fifth overall, it will be Tagovailoa. If Miami goes with another position, then the second QB chosen becomes more of a toss up.
Pick: Justin Herbert (+145)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
