Updated 2020 NFL OROY Odds After Draft – Who’s Odds Got Better/Worse

• Joe Burrow is favored to win the 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire has seen his odds change the most compared to before the draft (+2000 to +575)
• There is good value with a couple of overlooked running backs priced at +1800 and +8000

Now that the NFL Draft is in the books, a number of new futures pop up on the board. That includes a full list of the 2020-21 AP NFL Rookie of the Year odds.

According to the updated NFL OROY odds, the top pick in the draft, quarterback Joe Burrow, is favored to win. But at +250, the best value for bettors resides elsewhere.

2020 NFL OROY ODDS

Odds as of Apr. 27th.

How The OROY Odds Have Changed

It’s important to note that these aren’t the opening odds. Online betting sites already had enough information to post odds before the draft.

Burrow was originally at +225 but has slightly dipped to +250. Tagovailoa was originally at +650 and is now at +750. D’Andre Swift was previously third in line at +750 but has since fallen to +1200. Justin Herbert was at +1400 but is now at +2200 while CeeDee Lamb was previously at +1600 but is now at +2200.

Excellent recovery by CeeDee Lamb. This is a Pro Bowl move.

pic.twitter.com/xaNMyPuoT6

— Jemele Hill (@jemelehill) April 24, 2020

Heading in the other direction, the biggest winners are running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was at +2000 but is now second in line at +575.

Keep in mind that the odds have changed for two reasons: for one, we now know everyone’s landing spots and secondly, we have way more players on the board.

Burrow Is In Good Position To Succeed

Contrary to public opinion, I actually think Burrow is in a pretty good position to succeed. The offensive line is not great in Cincinnati but it’s not the worst. Taking a look at the skill players around him, Burrow will have Joe Mixon at running back and a wide receiving corps that boasts AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, John Ross, and second-round pick Tee Higgins.

Tee Higgins, who holds Clemson’s all-time receiving touchdowns record alongside two guys named DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins, fell out of the first round. Someone is going to get an absolute steal tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/ME5laxC3nP

— Austin Pendergist (@apthirteen) April 24, 2020

We see some early over-unders for Burrow and we’re looking at about 3,800 passing yards and 22 touchdowns for him. Of course, interceptions and turnovers will be a factor, but keep in mind that Kyler Murray won last year with 3,722 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 picks. Burrow appears to have a better group around him.

Edwards-Helaire Landed In A Great Spot

One of the reasons we’ve seen Edwards-Helaire shoot up the board is because of where he landed: with the Kansas City Chiefs. We’re talking about a team that averaged 379.2 yards per game last season and 28.2 points per game. Fantasy football players are already salivating at the type of numbers Edwards-Helaire might put up.

The one caveat here is that the Chiefs still have Damien Williams on the roster and he was fairly productive last season. Williams only rushed for 498 yards but remember he only played 11 games and had just 111 carries. That was still good for a 4.5 yards-per-carry average. He also caught 30 passes.

This was Clyde Edwards-Helaire and his father at LSU. He just became the first RB off the board to the reigning Super Bowl champs.

“They said you wasn’t no running back. YOU SHOWED ’EM.”

(via @CodyWorsham) pic.twitter.com/1uZhuTGvMe

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 24, 2020

Williams probably profiles more as a backup but this could very well end up being more of a timeshare than people think. However, if the team commits to Edwards-Helaire and he is legit, we could see him approach the numbers that Kareem Hunt put up three years ago: 1,327 rushing yards, 455 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns.

Vaughn: A Longshot To Love

One of the biggest surprises to me is that Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn is at 80/1. To me, this is an absolute steal in terms of value. He has a much better chance of winning this award than those odds suggest.

The Bucs’ backfield is wide open. The coaching staff has been frustrated with both Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones II. Barber is already gone and Jones’ “hold” on the starting job is a weak grip at best.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn has 2,208 career rushing yards after contact pic.twitter.com/yqwq3fGKN6

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) April 25, 2020

Vaughn had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons on a terrible Vanderbilt team and was virtually their only weapon. The offense ranked 125th in 2019; that’s how bad they were. He’s shown to be very elusive, excellent vision, and is a great receiver out of the backfield.

In an offense with Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, Vaughn won’t attract much attention from opposing defenses. Although some think he’s more of a complementary back than workhorse, I see the opportunity to be the lead back in an explosive offense. He could have the numbers to be in this race.

Value With Akers?

Another player who is being overlooked is Cam Akers of the Los Angeles Rams. This is a team that needs to have a back that they can rely upon and they didn’t have that in Todd Gurley, Darrell Henderson ,or anyone else last year. Akers could be stepping into a great opportunity if the Rams offense gets back to being elite.

A year from now, we will all look back and wonder how the hell Cam Akers wasn’t the first RB taken and how he fell to the mid rounds. Book it. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/HRC3MtAKwk

— Adam Santana (@BoogieJonesMan) April 23, 2020

I love when smart offensive coaches like Sean McVay go out and get new weapons. They’ll find ways to incorporate them and there is a big opportunity for Akers here, who I feel would have been a higher pick had Florida State not been a dumpster fire these last couple of seasons.

What’s The Best Bet?

It’s hard to narrow down one choice but I break this race down as follows: I like Burrow from the favorites, Akers from the mid-range and Vaughn as a longshot. Given Burrow’s decent situation and supporting cast, I actually think he ends up winning the award but there’s great value with the other two backs who have landed in good situations.