Updated 2020 NFL Win Totals After Week 1 – 49ers and Bucs Fall, Bears and Jaguars on the Rise

• By beating the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1, the Jacksonville Jaguars average win projection rose from 4.7 to 5.5, while the Chicago Bears went from 8 to 8.3 by beating Detroit.
• The San Francisco 49ers fell the most from 10.5 to 9.5 and Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell from 9.5 to 8.8
• Read below for odds, analysis, and new win projections for all 32 teams

The Jacksonville Jaguars’ 27-20 upset against the Indianapolis Colts left an impression on analysts and oddsmakers. The Jaguars’ average projected win total rose from 4.7 to 5.5, giving the team the biggest jump in the NFL win totals after Week 1.

The Chicago Bears, who erased a 17-point deficit to defeat the Detroit Lions 27-23,  saw their win total rise from 8 to 8.3.

Updated 2020 NFL Win Totals

Odds as of Sept. 16.

The San Francisco 49ers suffered the biggest fall, going from 10.5 wins to 9.5 wins, after losing 24-20 to the Kyler Murray-led Arizona Cardinals.

Thanks to Drew Brees’ New Orleans Saints defeating Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers’ wins projection fell from 9.5 to 8.8.

Bears’ Win Total May Have Moved Too Much

It doesn’t seem  prudent to give too much credit to the Bears for a come-from-behind road win against a Detroit Lions team with a projected win total of 6.5. Under coach Matt Patricia, the Lions have developed a habit of blowing fourth-quarter leads. It happened seven times last season.

The Bears would have still lost that game if wide open rookie D’Andre Smith didn’t drop a pass in the end zone in the waning moments.

Also, the Bears haven’t been able to re-sign top receiver Allen Robinson and rumors are swirling about a possible trade.

Allen Robinson expects to finish the season with the Chicago Bears https://t.co/Uz8Iedgyo1

— BearsWire (@TheBearsWire) September 16, 2020

Still, Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looked impressive in that fourth quarter, completing eight of 10 passes for 89 yards, three touchdowns, and a 143.3 passer rating. The Bears played with confidence during that comeback.

But the safest play would be to watch how the Bears play at home against the New York Giants on Sunday before buying into their over.

Maybe the Jaguars Are Better Than We Think

If you watched Jacksonville quarterback Gardner Minshew complete 95% of his passes in a win against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1, you might conclude this team is capable of winning six or seven games.

The Jacksonville win projection had fallen to 4.7 because it appeared that the franchise was trying to set up the team to have a shot at the 2021 No. 1 draft choice. The presumption was the Jaguars wanted a franchise quarterback.

QBs with best passer rating in week 1:

Lamar Jackson – 152.1
Russell Wilson – 143.1
Gardner Minshew – 142.3
Aaron Rodgers – 127.5
Patrick Mahomes – 123.3
Kirk Cousins – 118.6
Ben Roethlisberger – 117.8
Derek Carr – 107.5
Josh Allen – 104.6
Mitchell Trubisky – 104.2

— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) September 15, 2020

But Minshew, with his smooth, composed effectiveness, looked like a franchise quarterback in the win against the Colts. His performance alone, coming against a team that could win the AFC South division title, could have been enough to move the Jaguars to a six-win projection.

Brady Still Needs to Find His Comfort Level in Tampa

The 8.8-win number for Tampa is probably where it should be based on how Brady looked in his first game in a Buccaneers uniform.

Tampa coach Bruce Arians bluntly criticized Brady for his Week 1 performance, blaming him for one of his interceptions and saying that his new quarterback didn’t do his part.

Tom Brady is the first QB to have three straight games with a pick-six since Matt Schaub and Blaine Gabbert in 2013.

(h/t @pfref) pic.twitter.com/suXHhbUIgf

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 14, 2020

Obviously, Brady will look more like Brady as he grows accustomed to his new offense and personnel. But we may see the Tampa Bay win total move over the next few weeks as we get a better understanding of whether Brady can transform the Buccaneers into a winning team.

San Francisco May Be at More Realistic Win Total

The fact that the 49ers fell from 10.5 to 9.5 based on a Week 1 loss suggests that their number was too high coming into the season.

Throughout the offseason, the 49ers’ win projection was at 10.5, primarily on the strength of their 13-3 record last season, plus their strong playoff performance. But it’s challenging to avoid a downturn after playing that well and then losing in the Super Bowl.

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings🔋

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. Green Bay Packers
6. San Francisco 49ers
7. Buffalo Bills
8. Tennessee Titans
9. New England Patriots
10. Los Angeles Rams

— IKE Packers Podcast (@IKE_Packers) September 15, 2020

This is still an exceptional team, but it wouldn’t be shocking if it fell back just a bit in the regular-season. The new 9.5-win total might be the right number until we see how this team performs over the next few weeks.

How About Some Love for the Arizona Cardinals

It’s surprising that the Arizona Cardinals’ win total stayed at 7.5 after an impressive road win against the 49ers.

The performance of Kyler Murray and new wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a ‘wow’ factor to it. Murray connected with “Nuke” 14 times for 151 yards. In total, Murray threw for 230 yards and ran for another 91. It’s still early in his career, but he’s already one of the NFL’s most dangerous difference-makers. The Cardinals scored 14 fourth-quarter points to win that game.

Against the 49ers, the Cardinals looked like a team that was going to finish above .500 this season.