Updated Player Draft Position Over/Unders Entering Round 2 of 2020 NFL Draft – Fromm, Hurts, Swift and More
- Day 2 of the 2020 NFL Draft features rounds 2 and 3
- In the first round, there were four quarterbacks, six wide receivers, and one running back taken
- Draft stocks are shifting, but where does the smart money lay for bettors?
The 2020 NFL Draft is in full swing from Roger Goodell’s basement and across North America. The first round had minimal surprises in the early going, but there were a couple of eyebrow-raising maneuvers in the latter half (looking at you, Green Bay).
Day 2, which consists of the second and third rounds, promises to have plenty of excitement. The further a draft progresses, the more volatile it becomes.
Consider the over/under odds of many premier players entering the first round. Lots of them have slid significantly, while some others have received a slight bump depending on what position they play.
Here’s a look at the over/under odds, provided by FanDuel, for some of the top skilled players (i.e. quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs) left on the board:
NFL Draft Round 2 Over/Unders
Player | Pick Number | Over Odds | Under Odds |
---|---|---|---|
D’Andre Swift, RB | 39.5 | +104 | -128 |
Jacob Eason, QB | 49.5 | -110 | -110 |
Jalen Hurts, QB | 55.5 | +114 | -138 |
Jonathan Taylor, RB | 46.5 | +110 | -134 |
Denzel Mims, WR | 39.5 | -116 | -106 |
Cole Kmet, TE | 43.5 | +100 | -122 |
Tee Higgins, WR | 43.5 | +100 | -122 |
Michael Pittman Jr., WR | 47.5 | +100 | -122 |
Laviska Shenault, WR | 48.5 | +100 | -122 |
J.K. Dobbins, RB | 50.5 | -135 | +115 |
Jake Fromm, QB | 70.5 | -110 | -110 |
Odds taken April 24.
Let’s dive into a few of these players’ odds and find the best bets.
It Ain’t Eason
The quarterbacks that went before Jacob Eason (Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love) were the ones that were expected to go ahead of him. So no harm, no foul on that front.
But looking at his new over/under line (49.5, a dip from 47.5 pre-draft), there are very few logical suitors in the next 17-or-so picks. The Colts (who have aging Philip Rivers on a one-year deal) might be the best option.
2020 NFL Draft Profile: Washington QB Jacob Easonhttps://t.co/2MVzxVeDbU pic.twitter.com/wdBpKEIn5J
— NBC Sports Northwest (@NBCSNorthwest) April 23, 2020
But even then, expending one of their two picks in the early second round would be a reach.
Remember, Eason was chased out of Georgia in college when he lost his job to Jake Fromm — a quarterback with a much more lenient over/under (70.5) who could leapfrog him once again.
Pick: Over 49.5 (-110)
J.K. Is No Joke
A bettor’s confidence in this pick should be buoyed by the fact that Thursday night’s first round finished with a running back coming off the board in LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
We’re not going to predict a run of RBs now, but now that one has been chosen, it’s reasonable to believe others will follow. And what better back to choose than J.K. Dobbins?
He obliterated the opposition last season, rushing for 2,003 yards (6.7 per carry) and 21 touchdowns, while contributing 247 receiving yards and two additional scores.
JK Dobbins through 6 games…
826 Yards
6 TDs
7.1 avg. pic.twitter.com/4CQ97yoEBU— Buckeye Highlights (@LetsGoBuckeyes) October 12, 2019
Dobbins also has significantly less mileage on his body (725 career carries) compared to Wisconsin star Jonathan Taylor (926 carries). That could be a factor, especially when you consider Edwards-Helaire was plucked first among running backs despite only having 370 career carries.
D’Andre Swift (440 career carries) fits the gently-used profile as well. But Dobbins has the most forgiving over/under of this group (50.5) and thus provides more value.
Teams that could reasonably be looking for a running back from picks 33-50 include Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Miami, the Jets, and perhaps even Indianapolis. Dobbins would make for a nice fit anywhere.
Pick: Under 50.5 (+115)
Lay Your Eyes On Laviska
Unsurprisingly, there was a boatload of wide receivers taken in round one. Six receivers were taken, something that has only happened one other time in the past 10 years.
And guess what? There are still several talented pass catchers available, including Colorado’s Laviska Shenault. His pre-draft over/under was an ambitious 32.5, but now he has settled into a much more reasonable line of 48.5.
Shenault’s core muscle surgery in March may have hampered his draft stock a bit, but then again first-round WR Brandon Aiyuk underwent a similar procedure this month.
Most forced missed tackles among WRs since 2018
1. Laviska Shenault Jr. – 44
2. CeeDee Lamb – 38 pic.twitter.com/hkJg6BYiKr— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) April 21, 2020
What Shenault lacks in speed (4.58 40-yard dash) he makes up for in elite instincts and elusiveness. The Bengals, Lions, Giants, Dolphins, Bears, Jaguars, or Jets would be lucky to have him.
Pick: Under 48.5 (-122)