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Updated Win Totals for Steelers & Saints: Pittsburgh Drops to 5.0

Angelo Montilla

by Angelo Montilla in NFL Football

Updated Apr 23, 2020 · 11:34 AM PDT

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Mason Rudolph throwing a pass
The Pittsburgh Steelers saw their win total drop to 5 after starting the season at 0-3. Photo from @NFLonFox (Twitter).
  • Pittsburgh’s win total was just over 9, on average, prior to Ben Roethlisberger’s injury
  • The Steelers are 0-3 so far
  • The 2-1 Saints saw their win total drop from 10.5 to 9.5 following the injury to Drew Brees

After losing starting quarterbacks to long-term injuries, both the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints saw their regular-season win totals drop.

Oddsmakers have released updated NFL win totals and lists the Steelers’ over/under at 5, while the Saints saw their mark dip to 9.

What is the best bet for both teams this season?

Pittsburgh Steelers Win Total Odds

Odds Week 4 Record
5 .0 (O +105/ U -125) 0-3

Odds taken September 25.

Both the Steelers and Saints suffered setbacks this season when starting quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees were lost to injuries. For Roethlisberger, the outcome was much worse after suffering an elbow injury that required season-ending surgery.

When the NFL win totals opened, the Steelers were listed at 8.5 and the projection reached 9.3 just before Week 1.

That line plummeted to 5.0 after the Steelers fell to 0-3 heading into Week 4. Can the Steelers reach six wins with Mason Rudolph as the No. 1 quarterback?

Tough Schedule For Steelers

One of the most important factors when considering betting on total wins is schedule difficulty. The Steelers have already lost to the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks. The road won’t get any easier with two games against Baltimore Ravens as well as meetings with the Los Angeles Rams, Los Angeles Chargers, and Buffalo Bills.

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Generating offense has been a cause for concern for the Steelers early on; the club has 808 total yards, which is the third-fewest in the NFL ahead of only the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets.

On top of that, the Steelers have only been able to score 49 points through three games and average 16.3 points per game, fifth-worst. Only the Dolphins, Jets, Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders have produced fewer.

With an upcoming schedule that features games against the Bengals, Ravens and Chargers, the Steelers may fall to 1-5 on the season. The game against the Bengals could really go either way, too, based on how that pair of 0-3 teams has looked so far.

Roethlisberger was essential to the Steelers turning in a winning season.

Pick: Under 5.0 (+105)

New Orleans Saints Win Total Odds

Odds Week 4 Record
9.5 (O -105/ U -115) 2-1

The forecast isn’t as bleak for the Saints, who opened the season at 2-1 despite losing Brees for at least 6 weeks during their Week 2 setback at the LA Rams.

When oddsmakers released opening NFL win totals, the Saints came in at 10.5 and remained at that mark up until Brees went down with a thumb injury, giving way to backup Teddy Bridgewater.

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Bridgewater has been in this position before, though, i.e. an NFL starter on a quality team. As QB of the Minnesota Vikings, he reach the playoffs back in 2015.

Saints Off To Strong Start

The Saints currently sit first in a pretty weak NFC South division as the Bucs, Falcons and Panthers all started with 1-2 records.

New Orleans’ schedule in the early stages couldn’t have been tougher. After opening against the Texans, Rams and Seahawks, the Saints will host the 3-0 Dallas Cowboys.

The schedule is much more favorable for the Saints moving forward — they have all six divisional games left to play — and with Brees expected to return by Week 8 or 9, New Orleans could be in a great position to surpass the 9.5 win total projection.

The Saints will have to tighten up defensively, however, as the club is currently allowing 301.7 yards per game, which is the third-most in the NFL heading into Week 4. While a lot of that came in garbage time against the Seahawks, they are also 28th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA.

Bridgewater’s mission will be to get the Saints to five wins prior to Brees returning. Once Brees comes back, he will take it from there. Take the over.

Pick: Over 9.5 (-105)

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