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Upset Picks for Week 12 in NFL: You Like Dak! Cowboys Win Most Obnoxious Matchup Ever

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Apr 14, 2020 · 6:00 PM PDT

Tom Brady vs the Dallas Cowboys
Tom Brady and the Pats have not be celebrating many offensive touchdowns lately and that could continue against the Dallas Cowboys. Photo from @floodmazda (Twitter).
  • The biggest game of the weekend sees the NFL’s two most hated teams, the Cowboys and Patriots, face off
  • Denver and Cincinnati both look like decent dogs this week playing suspect offenses
  • Our upsets went 0-2 last week, costing us almost all the profit we made in Week 10

To quote Sam Elliott’s iconic Lebowski character, “Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes, he eats you.” The latter was definitely last week (which is ironic, cause we picked the Bears). But fret not, we’ve got some juicy Week 12 NFL lines to bite back with.

This week’s upset picks might be the most diverse set of teams yet: we have an underachiever from the AFC West, a division leader that calls itself “America’s Team” and the only squad left with a goose egg in the win column. Which ones will come through?

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Odds

Team Spread Moneyline
Denver Broncos +3.5 +170
Buffalo Bills -3.5 -200

*Odds taken Nov. 22

The Broncos and Bills are basically the same team this year, right down to their QBs’ last name. Both are paced by their defense and when their offense does have success, it comes on the ground. The only difference between the two is the luck category, which explains why there’s a four-win gap between Buffalo and Denver.

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While Denver has lost some absolute gut punches to quality teams like the Colts and Vikings, the Bills have the good fortune of playing in the AFC East.

Anyone who has watched the Broncos this season know they’re better than their record and analytics agree: Denver ranks 18th in DVOA. For comparison, the Bills are 25th. This line shouldn’t be bigger than three points.

To top it all off, Buffalo has a Thanksgiving trip to Dallas planned four days after this game, making this a classic opportunity to overlook their opponent. An opponent who, again, might be better than them anyway.

Pick: 1 unit on Broncos moneyline (+170)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals Odds

Team Spread Moneyline
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 -290
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 +245

The peak of the Mason Rudolph-led Steelers was their Week 4 win over Cincinnati, when he checked the ball down the Bengals throat. Since then, Pittsburgh’s offense has largely been a disaster. But if they want to revert to a lot of screens and crossers to beat their rivals again, that strategy will be harder to implement.


Meanwhile, since Ryan Finley took over at QB, the Bengals backfield has had a renaissance. Cincinnati rushed for 330 yards in the last two weeks and they’ll look to have more success on the ground this week to avoid Pittsburgh’s pass rush absolutely destroying them again.


The Bengals were feisty against the Raiders and look poised to end their winless season soon, with games against the Jets and Dolphins down the stretch. But beating one of those teams wouldn’t be nearly as shocking and damaging to bettors as winning this week… which is why I’m partial to thinking it happens.

Pick: 1 unit on the Bengals moneyline (+245)

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots Odds

Team Spread Moneyline
Dallas Cowboys +6.5 +235
New England Patriots -6.5 -275

Fading the Pats is a ludicrous idea, especially at home. And yet. we’re doing it because I have no faith in their offense. It’s gotten to the point where I can say with 100% confidence that Brady is not the best QB in this game.


Things have gotten so bad for New England in the red zone, Belichick is pulling out the trick plays he’d usually save for a big moment in a Week 11 matchup against a non-conference opponent.

When Brady is on the field is when you’ll want to take your bathroom breaks, because this matchup is all about Dak Prescott and this Dallas offense against the Patriots D. Both are tops in their respective category in DVOA, and that’s with Zeke Elliott dragging the last few weeks. He’ll have a chance at feasting on New England though, as they’ve proven to be susceptible to the run.


Take the Cowboys as the lesser of two evils in this despicable matchup.

Pick: 1 unit on the Cowboys moneyline (+235)

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